Türkiye v USA prediction, lineups & tips: World Cup 2026 Group D finale

Türkiye's FIFA World Cup 2026 campaign has been one of the most baffling in recent memory. Backed by a squad containing players from Real Madrid, Inter Milan and Juventus, Vincenzo Montella's side arrived in North America as genuine dark horses. They leave it, barring a freakish set of results elsewhere, having failed to score a single goal in two games, losing 2-0 to Australia and 1-0 to Paraguay. Now, in their final Group D fixture at SoFi Stadium on Friday morning, they face a USA side that has already won the group and is looking to become the first American team to go through a World Cup group stage with three wins.

The USA have been everything the pre-tournament hype promised. Mauricio Pochettino's side beat Paraguay 4-1 in their opener on June 12, with Christian Pulisic instrumental before a calf injury cut his night short at half-time. They followed it up with a controlled 2-0 win over Australia on June 19, and the result in Friday's dead rubber will not change their position, Group D winners, through to the Round of 32 and almost certainly facing Bosnia & Herzegovina on July 1 in Santa Clara.

For Türkiye, the numbers tell a damning story. They have generated an average xG of 1.77 per game across their two outings, so the chances have been there, but converted none of them, managing a meagre average of 6.5 shots on target per match despite averaging 75.5 per cent possession. Kenan Yıldız, the 21-year-old Juventus forward, was sent to face the Turkish media ahead of this game. According to AP journalist Greg Beacham, he handled the difficult questions from journalists trying to understand the scale of the underachievement "very smoothly and professionally." His squad still owes Türkiye's supporters something.

Pochettino has been candid about his plans for this game. He confirmed at his pre-match press conference on Wednesday that Tyler Adams, Folarin Balogun, Chris Richards and Antonee Robinson, all on yellow cards, will not start, with another booking ruling each of them out of the Round of 32. "I think it's an easy answer for the guys that have yellow cards," he said. "I think it's unnecessary to take a risk and then they take another yellow card and not be available for the next stage."

Pulisic is fit, having declared himself available after three days of full training following his calf complaint. Whether he starts or comes off the bench remains Pochettino's call. Midfielder Cristian Roldan is doubtful with a quadriceps strain and has not trained with the full group all week.

Montella, meanwhile, will be playing for the only thing left available to him: a better send-off. The FIFA website noted a headline reading "Yildiz: We want to go out with pride" ahead of the game, and that sums up the Turkish dressing room's stated intent. Whether pride will be enough against a USA side that, even with significant rotation, should have too much individual quality is another matter. The Americans have scored six goals in two games at this tournament, conceding just one.

With four regular starters rested and Pulisic's role uncertain, Pochettino will lean heavily on players who have had minimal game time in this tournament. Sebastian Berhalter is expected in midfield, while Pepi leads the line again after a productive outing against Australia. Türkiye are likely to stick with the 4-2-3-1 that has served Montella throughout qualifying, Çalhanoğlu and İsmail Yüksek screening in front of a back four, Güler and Yıldız providing creativity behind Kerem Aktürkoğlu.

Türkiye: Çakır; Çelik, Demiral, Bardakçı, Kadıoğlu; Çalhanoğlu, Yüksek; Baris Alper Yilmaz, Kökcü, Güler; Yıldız

USA: Freese; Freeman, McKenzie, Trusty, Arfsten; Berhalter, Scally; Zendejas, Tillman, Weah; Pepi

The game kicks off at 3:00am BST on Friday 26 June at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. In the UK, the match is live on ITV. In the US, it is broadcast on Fox Sports.