Tunisia v Netherlands prediction, lineups & tips: World Cup 2026 Group F

The FIFA World Cup 2026 Group F finale at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, is a fixture that only one team has any real reason to care about. Netherlands arrive needing a win to guarantee top spot and the more favourable knockout draw that comes with it. Tunisia turn up having already been mathematically eliminated, their campaign a tale of two sackings, nine goals conceded in two matches, and barely a shot on target to show for it.

Ronald Koeman's side drew 2-2 with Japan on the opening matchday before routing Sweden 5-1 in their second outing, a result that thrust the Dutch into genuine World Cup contention. They sit level on points with Japan ahead of the final round but lead on goals scored, seven to Japan's six, meaning they go into Thursday night's game knowing a win, combined with anything other than a Japan victory over Sweden, sends them out as group winners.

For Netherlands, the narrative around this group stage has been one of growing confidence. The 5-1 demolition of Sweden, with Brian Brobbey's fourth-fastest brace in World Cup history and a Cody Gakpo double, erased any doubts left by the Japan stalemate. Koeman, at a pre-match press conference, was characteristically measured when asked about the knockout draw. "We want to go very far in this tournament, and we respect every opponent we might face," he said. "We aren't afraid of anyone. In the end, it doesn't really matter who you face in the next round."

The Dutch have not kept a clean sheet in their opening two games at this tournament, and have conceded in each of their last six outings in all competitions. That is the one caveat in an otherwise commanding group-stage picture. With Denzel Dumfries causing problems down the right and a midfield three of Ryan Gravenberch, Frenkie de Jong and Tijjani Reijnders pulling the strings, they have the tools to win this comfortably.

Tunisia's situation is grim by any measure. They were thrashed 5-1 by Sweden on matchday one, a result that cost manager Sabri Lamouchi his job, the first mid-tournament sacking at a World Cup since 1998. Hervé Renard was brought in, but his first match in charge ended in a 4-0 defeat to Japan, with the Eagles of Carthage failing to register a single shot on target. Across their two games at this tournament, Tunisia have conceded nine goals and scored one, an Ismaël Gharbi header against Sweden. Their average xG for of 0.17 per game at this World Cup reflects a team that has barely threatened, let alone created.

Renard is likely to shuffle his attacking personnel. Firas Chaouat and Ismaël Gharbi are expected to feature in forward positions as Renard tries different combinations, though Tunisia's structural problems are deeper than personnel. They have averaged just four shots and one shot on target per game at the tournament.

Tunisia v Netherlands kicks off at midnight BST on Friday, 26 June 2026 (23:00 GMT on 25 June). The match is live on BBC One in the UK, with free streaming available via BBC iPlayer. Coverage begins at 11:50pm BST on Thursday evening.