Tunisia v Japan prediction, lineups & tips: Group F, FIFA World Cup 2026

Hervé Renard takes charge of his first match as Tunisia manager on Sunday in a fixture that carries more than just group-stage significance. This is the 1,000th match in FIFA World Cup history, and for the Carthage Eagles, it doubles as a near-elimination game after they suffered a 5-1 thumping against Sweden in their Group F opener six days ago. Renard, 57, is managing at his third consecutive World Cup with a third different nation, having steered Morocco in 2018 and masterminded Saudi Arabia's famous win over Argentina in Qatar in 2022. He arrives in Monterrey with four days of preparation and a squad still visibly rattled. Japan, meanwhile, are building momentum. Hajime Moriyasu's side twice came from behind to draw 2-2 with the Netherlands in their opener and are firm favourites to advance to the knockout rounds for the third consecutive World Cup.

Group F sits as follows heading into matchday two: Japan on one point in second place, Tunisia bottom with zero. Sweden lead the group after beating Tunisia and look the most likely side to advance alongside Japan, who need only to avoid defeat here to be in a commanding position ahead of their final game against Sweden. For Tunisia, the mathematics are brutal. Lose here, and they are almost certainly out, the Netherlands would need to simultaneously lose to Sweden for any remaining route to survive. A draw keeps some hope alive but leaves them needing to beat the Netherlands in their final group fixture. Win, and Group F is blown wide open.

Tunisia's 5-1 defeat to Sweden was not only the heaviest in their World Cup history but the immediate trigger for Sabri Lamouchi's dismissal, making him the first coach officially sacked while the 2026 tournament was still in progress. Lamouchi had only been appointed in January. Technical director Mondher Kebaier was briefly in the frame to take over before the federation moved quickly for Renard. Reports from Monterrey indicated significant dressing-room tension had been building behind the scenes before the Sweden game. All of that now lands in Renard's lap.

Tunisia's form at this World Cup consists of one game: a 5-1 loss in which they conceded goals spread across five different ten-minute windows and mustered an xG of just 0.28 from six shots. Japan's opening draw with the Netherlands told a different story, twice pegged back, they showed the composure to level through a 89th-minute equaliser assisted by substitute Koki Ogawa. Moriyasu's substitutes have been decisive across this cycle: five of Japan's seven goals since the start of the 2022 World Cup have been either scored or assisted from the bench. Japan are unbeaten in eight internationals.

Renard spoke to reporters at Estadio Monterrey on Friday ahead of the fixture. "I would like to insist that playing as a team is our only hope," he said. "Our collective spirit must be perfect to face this team." Earlier in the week, after his first training session with the squad, the Frenchman told players: "Now we have to move forward. In football, we don't have time to waste." He has also said he told the squad directly: "I've told them they have to keep their heads up, you're here to represent your country."

Tunisia v Japan kicks off at 05:00 BST on Sunday 21 June at Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe, Nuevo León, Mexico. The match is live on BBC One in the UK, with a free stream available via BBC iPlayer. All 104 matches at the 2026 FIFA World Cup are free-to-air in the UK, split between BBC and ITV.