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Swindon Town v Crewe prediction: League Two preview, lineups & tips

Crewe arrive at the County Ground unbeaten in nine as Swindon look to arrest a run of four defeats in their last nine League Two games.

Mike Ifftner
Published
Fri 9 Oct, 07:44
Updated
Sat 10 Oct, 14:23

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Swindon Town head into this fixture on the back of a 1-0 defeat at Rochdale on 3 October, a result that left them with three wins, two draws and four losses from their last nine League Two matches. Thirteen goals have gone in against them across that run. Crewe arrive in contrasting form, unbeaten in nine fixtures, a sequence built on three wins and six draws, with a 3-1 win over Bristol Rovers their most recent outing on 3 October.

BET FOOTBALL
Swindon TownSwindon Town
0–1
Full time
CreweCrewe
Sat 10 Oct, 12:30•County Ground

Context

Crewe sit third in League Two on 15 points from nine games, level with the sides immediately above them and still without a defeat this season, a record of three wins and six draws that points to a side difficult to break down rather than one that wins games comfortably. Swindon's underlying numbers from their last nine matches, a goal difference of minus four and only one clean sheet, tell a harder story. The two sides have been close across their last ten meetings too, Crewe holding four wins to Swindon's three with three draws, and it was Crewe who won the reverse fixture 2-1 at this same County Ground in February.

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3WalsallWalsall13+922
4CreweCrewe14022
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7YorkYork14+320
8GillinghamGillingham14+120
9Accrington STAccrington ST14+619
10ChesterfieldChesterfield14+319
11TranmereTranmere14+219
12Exeter CityExeter City14+219
13Swindon TownSwindon Town14-219
14Newport CountyNewport County14+318

Where to watch

Kick-off is at 12:30 BST on Saturday 10 October. The fixture is shown on Sky Sports where selected, with League Two matches not picked up for live coverage available to UK viewers via the clubs' own streaming services. The 12:30 slot falls outside the Saturday blackout window, so there is no streaming restriction attached to this kick-off time.

Key stats

  • Crewe are unbeaten in their last nine League Two games (3W 6D 0L) and have conceded just seven goals in that run, with three clean sheets, according to the club's recent-form data.
  • Swindon have averaged 1.00 goals for and 1.44 against per game across their last nine matches (xG 1.18 for, 1.99 against), against Crewe's 1.22 for and 0.78 against (xG 1.57 for, 1.96 against).
  • Seven of the last ten meetings between these sides have gone over 2.5 goals and five have produced goals at both ends, with Crewe winning the most recent one 2-1 at the County Ground in February.
Our headline tip✗ Miss
Match result

The draw

Crewe's unbeaten run of nine games and their superior defensive numbers, conceding 0.78 goals per game against Swindon's 1.44, point towards a tight contest, while the head-to-head history of three draws in ten meetings and Swindon's own home resilience in their last four at the County Ground suggest neither side is likely to pull away.

Our predicted scoreSwindon Town 1–1 Crewe
✗ Prediction missed
TIP 01 · Correct score✗ Miss

Correct score 1-1

Both sides' recent-form numbers land close to a goal apiece per game, with Swindon averaging 1.00 goals for and Crewe conceding just 0.78 per game over their last nine. A repeat of the scoreline from three of the last ten meetings between these two would fit that pattern closely.

TIP 02 · Over 2.5 goals✓ Hit

Under 2.5 goals

The combined average from the two sides' last nine matches sits below 2.5 goals when the data is read individually, Swindon's matches averaging 2.44 and Crewe's 2.00 goals per game. That undercuts the head-to-head trend of seven overs in ten, suggesting the market price of evens-ish for the under has some logic behind it.

TIP 03 · Both teams to score✗ Miss

Both teams to score

Crewe have scored in eight of their last nine games, with only one match this run failing to produce a goal for them, while Swindon have found the net in four of their last nine. The head-to-head rate of 50% across the last ten meetings between the clubs sits a little below that, which is the main risk to backing the market again here.

TIP 04 · Anytime goalscorer✗ Miss

L. Moult to score

Moult leads Crewe's attacking options in the squad list and should start as the focal point up front against a Swindon defence that has conceded 13 goals across its last nine matches. The lack of individual scoring data for him this season is the obvious caveat, so this leans on role and opportunity rather than a hot streak.

TIP 05 · Double chance✗ Miss

Swindon Town or the draw

Swindon's corner numbers from their last nine matches show 8.33 conceded per game against 4.22 won, a split that reflects spells of sustained Crewe pressure without the visitors always turning territory into goals. That imbalance supports the idea of Swindon surviving spells under the cosh rather than collapsing, which underpins a home-or-draw cover.

Build the Swindon Town v Crewe bet

BetFootball Builder · 3 Legs✗ Miss
The draw
✗ Miss
Match result
-

Anchors the builder around the core read of the match: two sides with unbeaten or resilient recent home/away form in the supplied data, neither obviously strong enough to dominate the other.

Both teams to score
✗ Miss
Both teams to score
-

Complements the draw selection without depending on the exact same outcome, since Crewe have scored in eight of their last nine games and Swindon have found the net in four of their last nine, pointing to goals at both ends rather than a goalless stalemate.

L. Moult to score
✗ Miss
Anytime goalscorer
-

Adds a player-specific leg that aligns with the BTTS selection rather than clashing with it, backing Crewe's lead forward to be the one on the scoresheet in a match where Swindon have conceded 13 goals over their last nine outings.