Sunderland v Leeds: Preview, predicted line-ups & team news

Four points from seven games is not the return Sunderland had in mind when they came back up to the top flight.

The Black Cats sit bottom of the Premier League, they have lost their last four league outings, and the home crowd at the Stadium of Light has seen exactly one goal from its side in three league games this term.

Leeds, by contrast, have turned draws into something of an art form. They have shared the spoils four times already and sit eighth, just two points off fifth.

The two sides know each other well, having met ten times since 2023, and the most recent of those was a 1-0 Leeds win in the Summer Series at the end of July.

Sunderland would dearly love some revenge. Whether they have the goals to take it is another question.

Sunderland's form has fallen off a cliff. They have lost 2-0 at Bournemouth and 2-0 at home to Brighton in their last two, and before that came a 5-3 defeat at Manchester City and a 2-0 home loss to Arsenal. Those are tough opponents, but the numbers are still sobering.

The hosts have scored six and conceded 14 in seven league games, an average of 2.0 against per match. Their expected goals against sits at 2.07 per game, so the leaks are not just bad luck. Away from home they have shipped ten in four, which makes the fact that they now need to get something at the Stadium of Light feel all the more pressing.

Leeds have been hard to beat. They have two wins, four draws and one defeat from seven games, and the defeat was a narrow 2-1 at Arsenal on 10 October.

They followed that with a 1-1 home draw against Manchester United last Sunday, and their only big win was a 4-1 against Newcastle at Elland Road in September.

The visitors have scored nine and conceded just six, with two clean sheets. Drawing is a fine habit when you are mid-table. However, a trip to the bottom club is the sort of game where a draw would feel like a missed chance.

Sunderland's last seven read one win, one draw and five defeats, with six goals scored and 14 conceded. Leeds have won two, drawn four and lost one, scoring nine and letting in six. On paper, that is a clear edge to the visitors. However, Sunderland's expected goals for of 1.52 per game is better than their 0.86 actual goals suggest, so there may be a little more life in their attack than the scorelines show. Leeds, for their part, have been at 1.42 xG for per game, and have scored 1.29, so they are not outperforming by much. The edge still lies with the side who defend better.

Sunderland are 20th with four points from seven games, goal difference minus eight. Nottingham Forest and Coventry are on six points, but each has played eight, and Bournemouth in 17th have six points from seven, so the gap to safety is two points with a game in hand on some of those around them.

Leeds are eighth on ten points from seven games with a goal difference of plus three. They sit two points behind fifth-placed Liverpool and level on points with Brentford, Everton and Ipswich.

A win would take Leeds into the top-five picture, while a defeat would leave Sunderland in real trouble. A home win would lift Sunderland out of the bottom three for the first time in a while, which would do wonders for the mood on Wearside.

Across their last ten meetings the sides have three wins each and four draws. Matches have averaged 1.7 goals, both teams have scored in 40 per cent of them and only 20 per cent have gone over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting was a 1-0 Leeds win in the Premier League Summer Series on 30 July 2026, with Sunderland the nominal hosts. The last league meeting at Elland Road, on 3 March 2026, finished 1-0 to Sunderland.

Those numbers say these games tend to be tight, low-scoring and tense. Three of the last five meetings were won by a single goal and two others ended level. That points towards under 2.5 goals, or a one-goal margin if you fancy the correct score. The betting markets agree, with Under 2.5 Goals priced shorter than Over, at 8/13 against 23/20.

The biggest gap is at the back. Sunderland concede 2.0 goals a game and have kept one clean sheet in seven, while Leeds concede 0.86 and have kept two. Sunderland have also failed to score in three of seven games, so there is not much firepower to offset the leakiness.

The other mismatch is goals scored on the road for Sunderland compared with at home. They have five away goals but just one at the Stadium of Light, which is an odd way round for a side hoping to rely on home advantage. Possession is almost even, at 48.4 per cent for Sunderland and 47.0 for Leeds, and shots on target are level at four a game, so this is likely to be decided by who defends better. Leeds look the safer bet there.

Kick-off at the Stadium of Light is at 4.30pm UK time on Sunday 25 October 2026 (the clocks go back that morning, so that is GMT). A UK broadcaster has not been confirmed yet and this page will be updated closer to kick-off.

The value here sits with Leeds on the money line, as the visitors have the better defence and the better recent record, and Sunderland have been poor in front of their own fans. The goals markets also lean low, given the head-to-head pattern. A narrow away win looks the most likely outcome, so the picks below are built around that.