Spain v Belgium prediction, lineups & tips: World Cup 2026 quarter-final

Forty years after Belgium famously knocked Spain out of the World Cup on penalties at the 1986 quarter-final stage, the two sides meet again at exactly the same stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. The venue this time is SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, and the stakes are identical: a place in the semi-finals. Spain arrive as the cleaner, more convincing side. Belgium arrive with momentum, a point to prove, and a four-goal performance against the United States still fresh in the memory.

Luis de la Fuente's Spain have been the most defensively watertight team at this tournament. They have not conceded a single goal in their five games in North America, keeping clean sheets in every match from the group stage draw with Cape Verde Islands through to Mikel Merino's 91st-minute winner against Portugal in the round of 16. Their average xG against across those five games is just 0.29 per match, which speaks to a defensive structure that barely gives opponents a sight of goal. Spain average 65.6% possession and 18.6 shots per game. They have gone through this tournament at their own pace, controlling rather than dazzling.

Belgium's route here has been bumpier. They drew their opening two group games, against Egypt and Iran, before turning the tournament on its head. Three wins on the bounce followed: 5-1 against New Zealand, a comeback 3-2 victory over Senegal, and then the 4-1 demolition of the United States in Seattle that put them firmly into the conversation as dark horses. Domenico Tedesco's side average 2.6 goals per game and have produced some of the most watchable football of the last eight. The question is whether their defensive record, conceding on average once a game, with only one clean sheet in five, can survive what Spain throw at them.

Spain's form reads W-W-W-D across the tournament, though the draw was a goalless stalemate with Cape Verde Islands on matchday one. Since then, it has been four wins without a goal conceded. Nico Williams remains short of full fitness after an adductor injury and is likely to start on the bench again. Lamine Yamal has been a constant threat on the right, completing 17 dribbles in the tournament to date. Belgium, meanwhile, arrive without Amadou Onana, who ruptured his anterior cruciate ligament in the first half against the United States on Monday. It is a significant loss. Kevin De Bruyne, who was dropped for the USA game, is expected to return to the XI with Hans Vanaken potentially filling the void Onana leaves alongside Youri Tielemans.

Thibaut Courtois spoke ahead of the game with a blend of realism and confidence. "People were a bit disappointed in us, but we've set that right. We're getting better and better. Spain is the favourite, of course. They are excellent in possession, and when they lose the ball, they press quickly. That's where the key lies: knowing how to quickly exploit the space behind their defence," the Real Madrid goalkeeper said. He also acknowledged the edge his familiarity with the Spanish squad gives Belgium. "It helps that I know them, most are from Spanish football, and some from the Champions League as well. But at the end of the day, we are playing against Spain, not against Barça or Real Madrid. Everyone knows those players."

De la Fuente has kept a settled XI throughout this tournament and there is little reason to deviate here. Unai Simon starts in goal, protected by a back four of Pedro Porro, Pau Cubarsi, Aymeric Laporte and Marc Cucurella. Rodri anchors midfield alongside Pedri and Dani Olmo, with Lamine Yamal on the right and Alex Baena deputising for Williams on the left. Mikel Oyarzabal leads the line; the Real Sociedad forward has recorded 17 goals in his last 17 international starts.

For Belgium, Tedesco is likely to set up in his familiar 4-2-3-1 with Courtois in goal and an unchanged back four of Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele and De Cuyper. Tielemans and Vanaken should operate as the double pivot. De Bruyne returns behind De Ketelaere, with Lukebakio on the right and Trossard on the left. Lukaku starts on the bench.

Spain (4-3-3): Simon; Porro, Cubarsi, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Pedri, Olmo; Yamal, Oyarzabal, Baena

Belgium (4-2-3-1): Courtois; Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, De Cuyper; Tielemans, Vanaken; Lukebakio, De Bruyne, Trossard; De Ketelaere

Spain v Belgium kicks off at 20:00 BST on Friday, 10 July 2026, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. In the UK, the FIFA World Cup 2026 is broadcast on BBC and ITV, with free-to-air streams available via BBC iPlayer and ITVX respectively.