South Africa v South Korea prediction, lineups & tips: World Cup 2026 Group A

South Africa's first FIFA World Cup 2026 appearance since hosting the tournament in 2010 is in serious danger of ending at the group stage. Hugo Broos's side sit bottom of Group A on one point, and only a win at Estadio BBVA in Monterrey will keep them alive. Standing in their way is a South Korea side that needs just a draw to guarantee their place in the last 32.

Mexico's dominance has defined Group A. The co-hosts are already through as winners after back-to-back wins, leaving South Korea in second on three points and South Africa and Czechia level on one apiece, separated by goal difference. For South Africa, the arithmetic is brutally simple: win, and they advance; draw or lose, and they go home. For South Korea, a point suffices, though a defeat, combined with Czechia beating Mexico, could still see them eliminated if the goal difference swings sharply enough.

Bafana Bafana's campaign has been defined by two red cards and a 2-0 defeat against Mexico on matchday one, before Teboho Mokoena's 83rd-minute penalty salvaged a 1-1 draw with Czechia. South Korea, meanwhile, beat Czechia 2-1 in their opener before losing 1-0 to Mexico, a goal gifted by a goalkeeping error from Kim Seung-gyu. Hong Myung-bo's side are the better team on paper; South Africa's desperation may be their greatest weapon.

South Korea averaging 1.0 goal per game from their two fixtures, with an xG of 1.6 per match, suggests they are capable of hurting Bafana Bafana in transition. South Africa, by contrast, have scored just once in two games, averaging 0.5 goals per match with an xG of 0.72, numbers that reflect a side that has created little and been fortunate to still be in contention. Korea have also averaged 12 shots per game to South Africa's 10, and their 60% average possession dwarfs Bafana Bafana's 50.5%. The form data points firmly in one direction.

Hugo Broos addressed the media in Monterrey on Tuesday. "The analysis has been done so it's now up to us to, first of all, block their qualities and secondly, to use their weaknesses," the 74-year-old Belgian said. "We are very motivated, and we know what we have to do. That is winning and only winning."

South Korea head coach Hong Myung-bo has issued his own warning. According to Starnews Korea, Hong told reporters at his pre-match press conference: "If we approach the match with the casual thought that a draw is acceptable, we may actually face great difficulties." Hong has made just one change to his lineup in two matches, and expects his side to approach the game as if their knockout-round place is not yet secured.

South Africa v South Korea kicks off at 02:00 BST on Thursday 25 June 2026 at Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe, Monterrey. The match is live on BBC Two in the UK, with a free stream available on BBC iPlayer and the BBC Sport website for those with a TV licence. bet365 also streams the fixture for eligible customers with a funded account.