Senegal v Iraq prediction, lineups & World Cup 2026 tips
Senegal need a win, and probably a big one, to keep their FIFA World Cup 2026 alive at BMO Field. Iraq arrive having conceded seven goals in two matches and with nothing left to lose.
Pape Thiaw's Senegal arrive at BMO Field in Toronto on Friday for their final FIFA World Cup 2026 group fixture in a position they had no business being in. Two losses from two, 3-1 to France and 3-2 to Norway, have left the Lions of Teranga needing to beat Iraq and hoping goal difference does enough to carry them through as one of the eight best third-placed sides. A win alone may not be enough. Thiaw's side have conceded five times in those two outings and produced nothing close to the level expected of Africa's second-ranked team.
Senegal
5–0
Full time
Iraq
Fri 26 Jun, 20:00•BMO Field
After the Norway defeat, Thiaw was direct about it. "We are now going to review the match, draw all the necessary lessons from it and correct our mistakes to make sure we do not repeat them," he told reporters. That "tactical rethink" now has 90 minutes to prove itself.
Iraq, meanwhile, have long since resigned themselves to elimination. Graham Arnold's side lost 4-1 to Norway on matchday one and were beaten 3-0 by France in matchday two, conceding seven goals and scoring one across their first two Group I fixtures. Their only goal at this tournament came from their top scorer Aymen Hussein. For Iraq, the last game of their first World Cup since 1986 is a matter of pride.
Senegal's form across three Group I fixtures tells a stark story. They have averaged 2.67 goals scored per game but conceded 2.0 per game, a sign of a side that can create but cannot hold a lead. Iraq have managed just 0.5 goals per game at this tournament, with an xG of only 0.72 per match, and have shipped 3.5 goals per game conceded. In short, Arnold's side offer almost no attacking threat. Senegal's average of 16.7 shots per game and an xG of 1.78 in attack suggests the creative quality is there; the issue has been defensive organisation and, to a degree, finishing efficiency.
Thiaw replaced Aliou Cissé as Senegal boss in late 2024 and guided the squad through an unbeaten World Cup qualifying campaign in which they took 24 points from a possible 30. The talent is unquestionable: Sadio Mané, Ismaila Sarr, Kalidou Koulibaly and Pape Matar Sarr all feature in a squad packed with European-based quality. Against Norway and France, that talent did not transfer to the pitch consistently. Friday is their last chance to show it.
Line-ups
Senegal4-2-3-1
23GMory Diaw
15DKrépin Diatta
4DAbdoulaye Seck
19DMoussa Niakhaté
14DIsmail Jakobs
5MIdrissa Gana Gueye
21MHabib Diarra
20MIbrahim Mbaye
8MLamine Camara
10MSadio Mané
18FIsmaïla Sarr
Manager · Bouna Thiaw Pape
Iraq4-1-4-1
22GAhmed Basil
26DFrans Putros
5DAkam Hashem
2DRebin Sulaka
23DMerchas Doski
16MAmir Al-Ammari
17MAli Jasim
8MIbrahim Bayesh
14MZidane Iqbal
11MAhmed Qasem
9FAli Al-Hamadi
Manager · Graham Arnold
Where to watch Senegal v Iraq: TV and online streams
Senegal v Iraq kicks off at 20:00 BST on Friday, 26 June 2026 at BMO Field, Toronto. The match is broadcast live in the UK on ITV1 and is available to stream via ITVX. In the United States, coverage is on Fox Sports and Telemundo, with streaming on Fubo.
Stats for Senegal v Iraq
Senegal and Iraq had never met before this World Cup, their only prior fixture was a 2006 friendly, which Senegal won 2-1.
Iraq have conceded 7 goals in 2 Group I matches, an average of 3.5 per game, and managed just 1 goal in return (xG: 0.72 per match).
Senegal are averaging 16.7 shots per game at this tournament, with an xG of 1.78 per match going forward.
All three of Senegal's group games have produced over 2.5 goals; both of Iraq's have done the same, a 100% over-2.5 rate in Group I fixtures.
Headline prediction · our pick
✓ HitConfidence · high
match result: senegal to win
Senegal need goals, possibly a lot of them, to give themselves the best chance of squeezing through as a third-place qualifier. Iraq have been overrun by France and Norway and have produced an xG of just 0.72 across their two matches, suggesting they pose minimal threat going forward. Thiaw's rethink and the urgency of goal difference mean Senegal will attack from the first whistle. A comfortable Senegal win, with the Lions keeping it tight at the back for once.
Best Price1/5bet365 · score 4-0
✓ Prediction landed
TIP 01✗ Miss
Correct Score: 4-0
Senegal have every incentive to pile on goals with goal difference potentially the tiebreaker for third-place qualification. Iraq have been held to a combined xG of 1.44 across two games and failed to score against France. A 4-0 scoreline reflects Senegal's attacking output (2.67 goals per game) against an Iraq defence that has shipped 3.5 per match. The odds at 9/1 represent fair value given the lopsided quality.
TIP 02✓ Hit
Over 2.5 Goals: Over
Every single Group I match played so far has produced over 2.5 goals, a 100% rate across four fixtures. Senegal are averaging 2.67 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game, while Iraq have been involved in games producing 5 and 3 goals already. At 11/8, this is the standout value play on the card. The only scenario where this fails is a Senegal shut-out by 1-0 or 2-0, which looks unlikely given their defensive frailties.
TIP 03✓ Hit
Both Teams to Score: No
Iraq's xG of 0.72 per game is among the lowest at this tournament and they failed to score at all against France. With Senegal's backline now under pressure to keep a clean sheet and Thiaw likely to pack the defence once a lead is established, the path for Iraq to find the net is extremely narrow. Two of their three tournament fixtures have seen them fail to score or score just once with limited chances created. At 17/20, 'No' for BTTS is the most likely outcome.
TIP 04✓ Hit
Anytime Goalscorer: Ismaila Sarr
Ismaila Sarr has been one of Senegal's brightest performers in Group I and has scored in each of the Lions' two previous matches. He creates chances at a high rate and, against an Iraq side that will sit deep and expose themselves to wide attacks, Sarr's movement in behind is a consistent threat. His shots-on-target rate and finishing record at this tournament make him the most compelling goalscorer option from either squad.
TIP 05✓ Hit
Double Chance: Home or Draw
At 1/33 on the Draw No Bet market for Senegal, the true confidence pick is simply to back the home side via double chance. Iraq have zero points, zero wins and conceded seven goals at this tournament. Even a Senegal performance well below their best should be sufficient to prevent defeat. The double chance here effectively insures against any shock, and given the gulf in quality, the risk of Iraq winning outright is minimal.
Build the Senegal v Iraq bet
BetFootball Builder · 3 Legs✓ Hit
Home Win
✓ Hit
Match Result
1/5
The foundation of the builder. Senegal are heavy favourites at 1/5 with the bookmakers, and rightly so, Iraq have lost all their group games by an aggregate of 7-1. A Senegal win is the most bankable leg, anchoring the other two selections and keeping the overall odds meaningful.
Over
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 Goals
7/16
This complements the home win leg because it pushes the builder toward the most likely scoring range without requiring a specific scoreline. All four Group I games have gone over 2.5. Senegal are attacking with urgency and Iraq cannot keep clean sheets, the combination makes this the natural second leg.
Ismaila Sarr
✓ Hit
Anytime Goalscorer
3/2
Sarr has scored in both of Senegal's previous group games and is priced to reflect that form. He avoids correlation issues with the result leg, a player goalscorer pick is independent of who wins, and his consistent threat from wide positions against an Iraq side likely to concede multiple times gives this leg strong standalone logic inside the builder.
Senegal
Iraq
