Scotland v Brazil prediction, lineups & tips: World Cup 2026 Group C

Scotland's long wait for a first World Cup knockout appearance reaches its defining moment at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami on Wednesday night. Steve Clarke's side sit third in FIFA World Cup 2026 Group C on three points, knowing that a win over Brazil guarantees second place, while even a draw would put qualification very much in their own hands. Brazil, top of the group on four points, are bringing Neymar back from a calf injury for his first minutes of the tournament, and they want to finish top, not merely coast through.

Scotland's campaign has been a study in resilience. They opened with a 1-0 win over Haiti, their first World Cup victory for 36 years, before suffering a painful 1-0 defeat to Morocco, conceded after just 70 seconds through Ismael Saibari's strike. Clarke was blunt about how his players responded: "The first game against Haiti was a very nervous occasion and the match against Morocco was a big step forward. If we do the same thing again and take another stride forward then we can cause Brazil problems."

Scotland average just 0.5 goals per game in this tournament and mustered a single shot on target across two outings, though their xG against of 1.02 per game tells a more complicated story, they have not been outplayed by as much as the scorelines suggest. The challenge ahead is categorically harder, but Clarke's squad are not here to make up the numbers.

Former Scotland manager Craig Levein offered a candid read of Clarke's tactical dilemma. "There is a situation where even if we lose 1-0 in this match then we could still qualify," he told Sky Sports News. "It is a bit of a dilemma for Steve actually, whether he plays with his defensive hat on, which I think he probably will."

Brazil, meanwhile, have been unconvincing rather than imperious. They drew 1-1 with Morocco in their opener before beating Haiti 3-0 in Philadelphia courtesy of a Matheus Cunha brace and a Vinicius Junior strike. Carlo Ancelotti hailed that display as "complete", though doubts about the team's structure have persisted since the Morocco stalemate. Ancelotti, at his first World Cup as head coach and the first non-Brazilian to manage the Selecao at a finals, has averaged 2.0 goals per game and 5 shots on target per game across two fixtures, with an xG for of 1.38 per match. The quality is there; the consistency is not yet settled.

Critically, history is a note of caution for Brazil. Brazil's last three defeats in the group stage at a World Cup have all come on matchday three, including a 1-0 loss to Cameroon in Qatar 2022. They have never lost to Scotland in eight previous meetings, but they cannot treat this as a formality.

On Scotland's prospects, Ancelotti was measured rather than dismissive. "We want to beat Scotland to finish top of the group; that would be important," he said via Gazzetta dello Sport. "We will prepare for it, but it won't be easy. Scotland have very defined characteristics; they caused Morocco problems and can do the same to us. But we must remain calm, composed, and focused on our game."

Clarke is expected to stay with the 4-4-2 that has been Scotland's shape throughout the tournament. Angus Gunn has been excellent in goal. McKenna's potential return at centre-back would sharpen a backline that has conceded only once. For Brazil, the fascinating unknown is how much Neymar is given, a start or an impact sub role. Ancelotti suggested he was open to changes, and with Raphinha out, the attack is likely to see Rayan start wide alongside Vinicius Junior and Matheus Cunha.

Scotland: Gunn; Patterson, McKenna, Hendry, Robertson; McGinn, Christie, Ferguson, Gannon-Doak; McTominay, Adams

Brazil: Alisson; Danilo, Marquinhos, Gabriel, Douglas Santos; Casemiro, Bruno Guimarães; Rayan, Paquetá, Vinicius Jr; Cunha

Scotland v Brazil kicks off at 23:00 BST on Wednesday, 24 June 2026 at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami. The match is live on BBC One in the UK, with free-to-air streaming available on BBC iPlayer. Scottish viewers can also watch on STV and stream via STV Player.