SC Freiburg v Bayern München: Preview, predicted line-ups & team news

Freiburg arrive at the Europa-Park Stadion in an unfamiliar position. They are third in the Bundesliga on 13 points, and last weekend's 2-1 defeat at Bayer Leverkusen was their first league loss of the season. Bayern, by contrast, are unbeaten in six, and they put six past RB Leipzig a week ago. The Bavarians have also scored 22 league goals from six games, the most of any side in the supplied standings. This is therefore a meeting between the division's best home record on goals scored and its most prolific attack, with Freiburg's 11 home goals from three games, including a 5-0 against Borussia Mönchengladbach, giving the hosts a credible case.

Freiburg have won four, drawn one and lost one of their six league games, scoring 15 and conceding six. Their home numbers are the strongest part of that record: three wins from three, 11 goals scored (3.7 per game) and two conceded (0.7), according to the season data. The 5-0 against Gladbach on 12 September is their biggest win of the campaign, and they followed it with a 2-1 home win over Schalke 04 on 11 October.

However, the away form is more fragile. Freiburg have taken one win, one draw and one defeat from three road games, conceding four goals in the process. Their underlying numbers are healthy, with 1.94 xG for and 0.94 against per game over the last six, which suggests the results are not flattering them. The test is whether that defensive record survives a side averaging 24.33 shots per game.

Bayern are second on 14 points from six games, one point ahead of Freiburg and three behind leaders Borussia Dortmund, who have played a game more. They have won four and drawn two, the draws coming at FC Augsburg (2-2 on 10 October) and Schalke 04 (0-0 on 5 September). Away from home the picture is less emphatic: one win and two draws from three, with four goals scored and three conceded, compared with 18 scored at the Allianz Arena.

That split matters here. Bayern's road record is the one area where Freiburg can find encouragement, and it is reflected in the failed-to-score count, which is one for the season and came away from home. A win would lift Bayern to 17 points, level with Dortmund, with a goal difference of at least +17 against Dortmund's +8.

Freiburg's last six league games read four wins, one draw and one defeat, with the loss at Leverkusen on 18 October the only blemish. Bayern's six read four wins, two draws and no defeats, and the visitors have scored 22 goals to Freiburg's 15 across that run. The gap in underlying output is larger than the results suggest: Bayern average 3.48 xG for and 0.92 against, while Freiburg sit at 1.94 and 0.94. The defensive figures are almost identical, so the difference is entirely in how much each side creates. Bayern's two draws both came away from home, which is the one trend that slightly flatters Freiburg's chances of taking something.

Freiburg are third on 13 points from six games, level with fourth-placed Leverkusen and one behind Bayern, who are second on 14 from the same number of matches. Dortmund lead on 17 points from seven, and RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen sit on 12 each from seven. The top six are separated by five points, so the margins are small.

A home win would take Freiburg to 16 points, above Bayern and within one of Dortmund, with a game in hand on the leaders. A defeat would drop them to 13 with the chasing pack, including Leipzig and Bremen, able to overtake. For Bayern, three points would put them level with Dortmund and keep the pressure on the leaders.

Bayern have won eight of the last 10 league meetings, Freiburg one, and one has been drawn. Those games have averaged 3.9 goals, with both teams scoring in 60% and over 2.5 goals in 80%. The most recent meeting was at the Europa-Park-Stadion on 4 April 2026, when Bayern won 3-2. Before that, Bayern won 6-2 at the Allianz Arena on 22 November 2025.

The pattern is consistent: Bayern usually win, and the games are usually open. The 3-2 in April shows Freiburg can score against this opponent, and the 2-1 in January 2025 and 2-2 in March 2024 were also in Freiburg. The supplied data points to goals rather than clean sheets. The over 2.5 rate of 80% matches this season's trends, although the BTTS rate of 60% is lower than the goals figure, which suggests some Bayern wins have come with the hosts failing to score. Correct-score interest lies in Bayern wins by one or two goals, with 1-2 priced at 7/1 and 1-3 at 17/2 by bet365.

The biggest gap is in shot volume. Bayern average 24.33 shots and 10.33 on target over their last six, against 16.17 and 5.33 for Freiburg, and the visitors also have 69% possession to the hosts' 52.5%. Those numbers indicate Freiburg will spend long periods without the ball, and their pressing and transitions will decide how often Bayern get into dangerous areas.

The second gap is set pieces: Bayern average 9.67 corners per game and concede 2.67, while Freiburg average 5.17 and concede 3.5. That points to sustained territorial pressure. The one place Freiburg match the visitors is defensive xG, 0.94 against 0.92, and that is where their hopes lie.

The match kicks off at 16:30 BST on Sunday 25 October 2026 at the Europa-Park Stadion. A UK broadcaster for this fixture has not been confirmed yet, and this page will be updated closer to kick-off once the rights holder is verified.

The value in this market is less in the result than in the goals. Bayern are 2/5 to win, which already reflects their form, but over 2.5 goals is priced at 3/10 and both teams to score at 8/15, and the supplied data supports both. Eight of the last 10 meetings have gone over 2.5, and Freiburg have scored in all six league games this season. The risk is a Bayern side that scores early and then controls the game.