Racing Santander v Real Madrid prediction, line-ups and tips: Mbappé to lead the charge at El Sardinero

A week ago Real Madrid walked out at Barcelona and came away with a 2-1 win, which tends to settle the nerves of any dressing room.

Now comes the awkward part. A trip to Santander on a Sunday afternoon is the sort of fixture where a big side can drift into a flat, comfortable performance.

Racing, for their part, have nothing to lose and a home crowd to play for. They've taken 11 points from their first 10 games and have scored in every one of their five home league matches.

That makes this a lot more interesting than the betting suggests... though Madrid will still expect to leave with three points.

Racing sit 15th on 11 points from 10 games, two clear of Getafe in the bottom three. Their form reads DLWLWLLDLW, with three wins, two draws and five defeats in their last ten.

Home and away have been two different stories. At El Sardinero they've won three and drawn two, scoring 11 goals at an average of 2.2 a game. On the road they've lost all five and shipped 18, including a 7-2 defeat at Barcelona and a 5-0 loss at Celta Vigo.

The recent win over Espanyol (2-1) was a welcome lift.

Madrid are third on 24 points from 10 games, six behind leaders Barcelona (who've played a game more). Defeat would let Atletico Madrid and Real Betis close in, so there's little room for a slip.

Their season so far has been built on home dominance, with five wins from five at the Bernabéu and 17 goals scored there. Away from home it has been patchier, with three wins and two defeats from five.

The visitors have also been strong late on, with 8 of their 25 league goals coming between the 76th and 90th minutes.

Racing have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last ten league games. Madrid have won 8 and lost 2 with no draws.

The Madrid numbers are stronger than the results alone suggest. They average 1.84 expected goals and concede 0.75, against Racing's 1.45 for and 1.25 against.

However, Racing's xG against is a good deal lower than their actual goals conceded (2.6 a game), so some of their misery is down to bad luck and poor finishing at the other end. Madrid's defeats came at Real Betis and Atletico Madrid, so a trip to a side outside the top group isn't a guaranteed win in the visitors' diary.

Madrid are third with 24 points from 10 games, six behind Barcelona and four behind Atletico Madrid, though both have played 11. Betis are fourth on 23, so the Champions League places are closely watched.

Racing are 15th on 11 points from 10 games, with Elche and Levante on 10 and Getafe 18th on 9. A win would lift them clear of the relegation zone by a more comfortable margin, but even a point would be treated as a decent result against this opposition.

For Madrid, a win keeps pressure on the top two. A slip would hand their rivals a gift.

The two sides have met four times in the recent record, all in La Liga between 2010 and 2012. Madrid have won three, there has been one draw and Racing have no wins. Those games averaged 3.75 goals, with 75% going over 2.5 and 50% seeing both teams score.

The last meeting was a 4-0 Madrid win at the Santiago Bernabéu on 18 February 2012.

That's a long time ago, so the history tells us little about the sides of today. What it does hint at is that Madrid tend to win by a margin, and that goals have usually been on offer. The current numbers back that up: Racing's matches average plenty of goals at both ends, and the Over 2.5 line has landed in 8 of their last 10. The pattern looks likelier to repeat than break, with a Madrid win and several goals the natural lean.

The biggest gap is at the back. Madrid concede 1.0 goals a game and have kept two clean sheets, while Racing have conceded 2.6 a game and have not kept one all season.

The second gap is shot volume. Madrid average 15 shots and 6.5 on target, while Racing manage 12.4 and 5. Madrid also allow only 3.9 corners a game against Racing's 7.5 conceded, which suggests the home side will struggle to build any pressure.

Racing's best chance is the first half, where 9 of their 15 goals have come before the break. If they get a goal early, the crowd could do the rest.

Kick-off at El Sardinero is at 15:15 BST on Sunday 1 November. A UK broadcaster has not been confirmed yet for this fixture, and this page will be updated closer to kick-off.

The angle with the most value is the goals, as Madrid's win looks the likeliest outcome and the question is how many they score. Racing have conceded 3.6 goals a game on their travels, but at home they have scored in every game, so both teams to score also looks a strong line. The Madrid win is the headline, with the supporting picks built around goals.