Racing Santander v Real Madrid: Preview, predicted line-ups & suspension update

Santander is a small, proud city, and El Sardinero is the sort of ground where a giant arriving on a Sunday afternoon is meant to feel a little uncomfortable.

The problem for Racing is that Real Madrid arrive in the sort of mood that makes discomfort a minor concern.

They won at Barcelona last Sunday night, 2-1, and that came a week after a 4-1 home win over Sevilla.

Racing, by contrast, are a newly competitive La Liga side who have been enjoying home comforts and suffering badly on their travels.

The hosts will be looking at the fixture list and thinking this is a free hit. Real Madrid will know that free hits have a habit of turning dangerous if you let them.

Racing Santander sit 14th on 11 points from 10 games, and their season has split neatly in two.

At El Sardinero they've won three and drawn two from five, scoring 11 goals, a little over two a game. Away from home it's a different story: five defeats, four goals scored and 18 conceded, which is a heavy concession rate per trip.

That includes a 7-2 loss at Barcelona and a 5-0 defeat at Celta Vigo.

The latest result was a good one, a 2-1 win over Espanyol last Saturday, which followed a 2-0 defeat at Osasuna and a 2-2 draw with Valencia.

Across their last ten they've won three, drawn two and lost five, and they haven't kept a clean sheet all season.

Real Madrid are third on 24 points, three behind leaders Barcelona and one behind Atletico Madrid, and they've done it with a ruthless home record.

They've won all five at the Bernabeu, scoring 17 and conceding three. The road has been less comfortable, with three wins from five and two defeats, at Real Betis and Atletico.

Kylian Mbappé has 11 league goals from 10 appearances, level with nobody at Racing and and among the leading scorers in the scorers' list we can see.

Over their last ten they've scored 2.5 goals a game and conceded just one, with an expected goals against figure of 0.75 that tells you how little they give away.

The only blemish is the one that comes with the 76-90 minute window: they've scored eight of their 25 goals there, so they tend to finish games rather than fade.

Real Madrid's last ten reads eight wins, no draws and two defeats, and the losses at Atletico Madrid and Real Betis both came away from home.

Racing's last ten is three wins, two draws and five defeats, and four of those five defeats came on the road.

On paper that's a mismatch, and for once the paper is being honest.

The one thing that might soften it is that Racing's home form tells a different story to their overall run, with 11 goals in five games at El Sardinero.

However, Real Madrid have averaged 15 shots a game over their last ten, against Racing's 12.4, and the extra firepower should tell eventually.

Real Madrid are third on 24 points from 10 games, three off Barcelona at the top and four clear of Real Betis in fourth, so the Champions League places look comfortable and the title chase is very much alive.

A win keeps the pressure on the two sides above them, and a slip would let Atletico stretch away.

Racing are 14th on 11 points from 10, two clear of Getafe in the bottom three on nine and with no games in hand on anyone near them.

They're not in a relegation fight yet, but a heavy defeat and results elsewhere could drag them into one before the international break calls time on the month.

The supplied record covers four meetings, all in La Liga between 2010 and 2012, and Real Madrid won three of them with one draw. Racing haven't won any.

Those games averaged 3.75 goals, with three of the four going over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring in two of them.

The most recent was a 4-0 win for Real at the Santiago Bernabeu on 18 February 2012.

It's a head-to-head that is old enough to vote, so it tells us very little about the players on the pitch.

What it does hint at is the pattern that has held ever since, with Real winning by a margin when they win and Racing struggling to land a punch. Real's 6-1 win in October 2010 and the 4-0 in 2012 were both comfortable.

For the betting markets, the over 2.5 goals rate of 75% sits well with this season's numbers, as Racing's matches have gone over 2.5 goals eight times in ten and Real's eight times in ten. The both-teams-to-score rate of 50% is more of a coin toss, and Racing's habit of scoring at home gives the hosts a decent chance.

The biggest gap is at the back. Real Madrid have conceded 1.0 goals a game over their last ten, against Racing's 2.6, and Racing have failed to keep a single clean sheet in 10 league games.

The second is in front of goal, where Real's 2.5 goals a game and expected goals of 1.84 compare with Racing's 1.5 and 1.45. Add 6.5 shots on target a game against Racing's 5, and Real simply create better chances.

The third is the corner count. Racing have conceded 7.5 corners a game over their last ten while Real have given away 3.9, which suggests the visitors will spend most of the afternoon camped near the home box.

It's a statistical mismatch, but the story is a simple one: Racing's defence leaks, and Real's attack doesn't need much of an invitation.

Racing are likely to stick with the 4-2-3-1 they've used in seven of their ten games, with Zabiri leading the line and a replacement needed at the back for a suspended defender. Real Madrid also line up in a 4-2-3-1, with a suspended forward the main selection question and Valverde a late call.

Racing Santander: Agirrezabala; Mario García, Manu Hernando, Pablo Ramón, Facundo González; Hugo Martín, Iván Martín; Villalibre, Canales, Iñigo Vicente; Zabiri

Real Madrid: Courtois; Alexander-Arnold, Militão, Huijsen, Cucurella; Tchouaméni, Camavinga; Brahim Díaz, Bellingham, Güler; Mbappé

Kick-off at El Sardinero is at 3.15pm GMT on Sunday 1 November 2026.

In the UK the game is shown on Premier Sports where selected, which holds the La Liga rights this season. We haven't been able to confirm the exact channel yet, so this page will be updated closer to kick-off if that changes.

The strongest angle is the simplest one: Real Madrid have scored in nine of their ten league games and Racing haven't kept a clean sheet all season. That points to a visiting win with goals, and Mbappé is the obvious scorer. The hosts' habit of scoring at El Sardinero keeps both teams to score in play, but it's the Real Madrid legs doing the heavy lifting.