Portugal v Uzbekistan prediction, lineups & World Cup 2026 tips

Portugal arrive at NRG Stadium in Houston on Tuesday carrying more baggage than a squad travelling to a FIFA World Cup 2026 group game should. Roberto Martinez's side were held to a 1-1 draw by DR Congo on matchday one, leaving them in second place in Group K on one point behind Colombia, who beat Uzbekistan 3-1 on the opening night. A win here is not optional. Defeat or another draw and Portugal's prospects of advancing from Group K as one of the top two sides would be genuinely in doubt, with Colombia still to come on matchday three.

The pressure inside the camp has not been helped by events off the pitch. Portugal's players have spent much of their daily press conferences fielding uncomfortable questions about alleged squad rifts, with the FPF advising the squad to stay off social media. Ronaldo himself was criticised during the Congo draw for denying Bruno Fernandes a goalscoring opportunity, prompting France assistant coach Thierry Henry to observe: "The team needs to score, not you." Martinez batted away those questions after the game, saying: "There are no fixed lineups moving forward. Now we need to be calm, we need to assess, we need to highlight the good things that we did, and we did many good things."

The reality is that Portugal had 75% possession against Congo, scored through Joao Neves after six minutes, and still failed to kill the game off before Yoane Wissa equalised in first-half stoppage time. Only one shot on target in total tells the story of how little they converted possession into danger. Martinez's setup has to change if Portugal are to avoid a second straight failure to win.

Uzbekistan, making their historic debut at a World Cup after seven failed qualifying attempts, gave a competitive account of themselves against Colombia before going down 3-1. Abbosbek Fayzullaev pulled one back early in the second half to briefly make it 1-1 and show they are not here merely to make up the numbers. Head coach Fabio Cannavaro, who captained Italy to the 2006 World Cup title, has built a defensively organised side around Manchester City defender Abdukodir Khusanov. The White Wolves recorded an xG of 1.16 against Colombia despite conceding three goals, suggesting they can generate chances even when outclassed.

Portugal's recent pre-tournament run was encouraging: four wins from their last five fixtures, scoring 14 goals and conceding three across those games, including a 2-1 win over Nigeria and a 2-0 defeat of the United States. Uzbekistan's pre-tournament form was more mixed, losing 2-1 to the Netherlands and 2-0 to Canada in their final two warm-up fixtures.

Martinez was clear in the post-Congo press conference that changes are coming. Ruben Dias, who missed the Congo game through injury, has been back in training and is expected to return to the starting XI in place of Tomas Araujo. Portugal averaged 75% possession in their opening match but mustered only seven shots. The PSG quartet of Nuno Mendes, Vitinha, Joao Neves and Goncalo Ramos are fresh from winning the Champions League, and Bruno Fernandes finished the 2025-26 Premier League season with a record 21 assists. The talent is there; the question is whether Martinez can unlock it against a side that will sit deep and make Portugal break them down.

Portugal v Uzbekistan kicks off at 18:00 BST on Tuesday, 23 June 2026 at NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas. In the UK, the match is televised live on ITV1, with coverage starting at 17:00 BST. UK viewers can also stream the game free via the ITVX app and website.