Portugal v Croatia prediction, lineups and tips: World Cup 2026 round of 32

Portugal head into the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 32 carrying the weight of a nation's expectation and the baggage of a group stage that never fully convinced. Roberto Martinez's side finished second in Group K on five points, failing to beat Colombia in their final fixture and kept scoreless for the second straight game before that. They now meet Croatia at BMO Field in Toronto, with a place in the last 16 at stake on Friday, 3 July.

Martinez framed the knockout stage in blunt terms at his pre-match press conference. "Tomorrow we begin the World Cup, the second World Cup," he said. "So it was very important to have good preparation. The good preparation was the three group-stage matches." He also deflected questions about whether Cristiano Ronaldo, now 41, should make way for Goncalo Ramos, saying: "For those who want to talk about age, age is just a number." Ronaldo scored twice against Uzbekistan in the group stage and shows no sign of stepping aside.

The bigger tactical question concerns Bernardo Silva, who was left out against Colombia for a combination of reasons, including the risk of a yellow card that would have ruled him out of the knockout stages. Martinez confirmed the reasoning: "We couldn't risk Bernardo Silva against Colombia because of the yellow card situation." Silva is expected to return to the starting XI here, which gives Portugal a considerably sharper creative outlet.

Croatia arrived in Toronto having recovered from a 2-4 defeat to England in their opening group game, a result that exposed their defensive fragility in transition. Back-to-back wins against Panama and Ghana steadied things, with Luka Modric, at 40 years and 291 days, delivering an assist against Ghana that made him the oldest player ever to register one at a World Cup. Zlatko Dalic's side finished second in Group L on six points, one behind England.

Dalic was in no mood to reduce this fixture to a Ronaldo-versus-Modric headline at his own press conference. "I believe this is going to be a battle of midfielders," he said. "Portugal has excellent players in the midfield. They are tactically very good. In this match, each error will be punished."

The history between these sides supports a competitive, goals-laden contest. In seven previous meetings, the two teams have averaged three goals per game, with both teams scoring in six of those encounters. This is, however, the first time Portugal and Croatia have met at a World Cup, which strips out some of the context around whether knockout pressure changes the dynamic. Portugal's superior squad depth across the pitch, combined with Croatia's leaky defence in transition, points towards a Portuguese win, but this will not be straightforward.

Portugal v Croatia kicks off at 00:00 BST on Friday, 3 July 2026 (23:00 BST on Thursday evening) at BMO Field in Toronto, Canada. The match is available to watch free-to-air in the UK on BBC One or ITV1, with both live streams accessible via BBC iPlayer and ITVX respectively.