Paraguay v Australia prediction, lineups & tips: Group D decider at FIFA World Cup 2026
Paraguay need a win to guarantee second place in Group D at the FIFA World Cup 2026, while Australia know a draw will do. Miguel Almirón is suspended and the Socceroos make six changes, setting up a fascinating shootout in San Francisco.
Paraguay's first FIFA World Cup in sixteen years arrives at its most decisive moment on Friday morning in San Francisco. Gustavo Alfaro's side sit third in Group D on three points, knowing only a win will guarantee their passage to the Round of 32 as automatic qualifiers. A draw would send them into the anxious wait of the third-place standings, where their goal difference of minus-two is a significant liability. For Australia, the arithmetic is kinder: Tony Popovic's Socceroos need nothing more than a point to secure second place behind co-hosts the United States.
Paraguay
AustraliaParaguay's campaign has swung between extremes. A 4-1 hammering at the hands of the USA in their opener suggested the tournament might be over before it began for La Albirroja. But Alfaro's men responded on matchday two with a gutsy 1-0 win over Türkiye, a result made all the more impressive by the fact that Miguel Almirón was sent off just before half-time, leaving them to defend for the entire second period. Alfaro, speaking ahead of this fixture, pointed to the history his side could write. "A win against Australia would be the first time Paraguay has ever won two matches in a World Cup group stage," he said. Australia, meanwhile, beat Türkiye 2-0 on matchday one before losing 2-0 to the USA. They arrive needing only a share of the spoils, though Popovic has been clear there is no intention of sitting back. "We're going into the game tomorrow to win," he told reporters. "I expect they'll be doing the same."
Paraguay's xG of 0.37 per game so far in this tournament is low, and their average possession of just 33.3% reflects a side that defends in numbers and looks to counter. Australia's xG of 0.76 per game is healthier, though their defensive numbers tell a mixed story, a clean sheet against Türkiye followed by two goals conceded against the USA. With head-to-head record the first tiebreaker at this World Cup, and Australia already holding the head-to-head advantage over Paraguay from any hypothetical equal-points scenario, the Socceroos are the side with every incentive to stay compact and deny Paraguay the space to threaten on the break. In five previous meetings, all friendlies, Paraguay have never beaten Australia, losing two and drawing three. The last encounter between the two came in October 2010.
ParaguayAustralia
Line-ups
Paraguay5-4-1- 12GO. Gill
- 4DJ. Cáceres
- 2DG. Velázquez
- 15DG. Gómez
- 3DO. Alderete
- 26DA. Maidana
- 8MD. Gómez
- 14MA. Cubas
- 23MM. Galarza
- 19MJ. Enciso
- 21FG. Ávalos
Australia3-4-3- 18GP. Beach
- 3DA. Circati
- 19DH. Souttar
- 25DL. Herrington
- 16MA. Behich
- 13MA. O'Neill
- 22MJ. Irvine
- 5MJ. Bos
- 8MC. Metcalfe
- 17FN. Irankunda
- 20MC. Volpato
Where to watch Paraguay v Australia: TV and online streams
Paraguay v Australia kicks off at 03:00 BST on Friday, 26 June 2026. The match is broadcast live in the UK on BBC One and BBC iPlayer. UK viewers can stream for free via the BBC iPlayer app or at bbc.co.uk/iplayer.
Stats for Paraguay v Australia
- In five previous meetings (all friendlies), Paraguay have never beaten Australia, two losses and three draws, with the most recent fixture ending 1-0 to Australia in October 2010.
- Paraguay average just 0.37 xG per game at this World Cup, and hold an average possession of 33.3% across their three group matches, the lowest in Group D.
- Australia have kept one clean sheet and conceded 0 goals at home in this World Cup season (2-0 win v Türkiye), though they shipped two away against the USA.
- Over 2.5 goals has not landed in either side's World Cup fixtures so far: both Paraguay and Australia have seen their matches stay under 2.5 goals in every game bar Paraguay's 4-1 loss to the USA.