Nottingham Forest v Leeds prediction: Premier League predictions, lineups & tips

Nottingham Forest's Premier League opener carries a strong pattern with it. Leeds won 3-1 at Elland Road in February, reversing a 3-1 defeat at the City Ground the previous November, and in each of the last four competitive meetings between these clubs the home side has won. That trend points squarely at Forest this weekend. bet365 make them favourites at the City Ground, and history backs that call more strongly than the raw head-to-head record suggests.

Forest have not had the ideal build-up to round one. Ryan Yates is a fresh injury absence and left-back option Savona is also missing with a knee problem, leaving Nuno Espirito Santo short of options in central midfield and at the back against a Leeds side who like to get bodies forward.

The head-to-head record backs the home side more than most fixtures. Forest and Leeds have met four times in the Premier League and one further time in a friendly since 2023, and in every one of those competitive meetings the team playing at home has won. Forest's most recent home win over Leeds, 3-1 at the City Ground in November 2025, was answered by a 3-1 Leeds win at Elland Road three months later. Home advantage, on this evidence, is the strongest signal going into Saturday.

Leeds arrive with their own injury list. Wilfried Gnonto and Gustaf Gudmundsson are both out with hamstring problems and defender Mateo Joseph is missing with a knee issue, which thins out Daniel Farke's attacking options before a ball has been kicked. The head-to-head pattern is not on their side either. Leeds have lost both of their last two competitive visits to the City Ground, in February 2023 and again in November 2025. bet365 price them at 9/4 to end that run, a fair reflection of a side that has shown far more at Elland Road than it has on the road against Forest.

Neither side has a Premier League result on the board yet this season, so the form guide below will look unusually bare for round one. That makes the head-to-head record the more useful pointer, and it leans towards Forest. The home side has won every one of the last four competitive meetings between these clubs, which suggests home advantage carries real weight in this fixture specifically. Forest have the deeper injury list heading into the weekend, but the venue trend still favours them.

Both clubs go into this weekend on zero points from zero games, with the table not yet giving any real read on the season. That will not last long. Whoever wins at the City Ground takes an early foothold in a division where slow starts have a habit of being punished by December. For Forest, three points would settle any early nerves around the head coach after a summer of squad changes. For Leeds, victory on the road against an established Premier League club would be the clearest sign yet that their return to the top flight is built to last beyond one comfortable season.

Forest hold a narrow edge in the head-to-head, winning 4 of the 10 meetings to Leeds' 3, with 3 draws. Goals have been a consistent feature: the average across those 10 games is 2.6 per meeting, both teams have scored in 6 of them (a 60% BTTS rate) and 4 have gone over 2.5 goals. The last meeting went the way of Leeds, 3-1 at Elland Road in February 2026, which itself reversed a 3-1 Forest win at the City Ground the previous November.

The pattern worth trusting here is the venue, not the name on the shirt. Every one of the last four competitive meetings has been won by the home side, which is a stronger signal for Saturday than the overall head-to-head split. With a BTTS rate of 60% and an over 2.5 rate of 40% across the sample, the goals markets look well supported too, and there is no reason to expect Forest's home run in this fixture to end now.

Injuries do most of the talking in the build-up to this one. Forest are missing Yates in central midfield and Savona at left-back, two positions Leeds have shown in previous meetings they like to attack down and through. Leeds, in turn, go into round one without Gnonto and Gudmundsson up front and Joseph in defence, which thins out a squad still adjusting to life back among the game's biggest names. Add in a head-to-head record where the home side has won four meetings running, and the balance of the evidence sits with Forest despite their own selection problems.

Kick-off at the City Ground is 3pm BST on Saturday 22 August. As with all Saturday 3pm fixtures, the match falls under the traditional UK broadcast blackout and will not be shown live on domestic television. Fans in the UK can follow commentary on BBC Radio 5 Live, while overseas viewers should check local broadcast listings for live coverage.

The head-to-head numbers back the favourites more than they might first appear. Home advantage has decided each of the last four competitive meetings between these clubs, and bet365 make Forest 13/10 favourites on the back of that trend as much as current form. The goals markets add a second layer of value, with both teams scoring in 60% of the last 10 meetings.