Norwich v Bolton: prediction, lineups and tips as Canaries chase a third win in four

Norwich have scored 13 goals in seven Championship games this season. Bolton have conceded 12 in the same number. Something is going to give at Carrow Road on Sunday.

Both sides arrive off the back of contrasting fortunes at the weekend. Norwich lost 4-3 at Middlesbrough last time out, a game that summed up their season so far: goals at both ends, points up for grabs, questions over the defence. Bolton, by contrast, finally stopped the rot with a scrappy 1-0 home win over Cardiff, ending a run of four straight defeats.

Norwich have won three of their last seven games but the underlying pattern is feast or famine. They beat Birmingham 2-1 at home on 9 September and thrashed Burnley 4-1 at Carrow Road a fortnight before that, but sandwiched in between are away defeats to Stoke City and Millwall and, most recently, that 4-3 collapse at Middlesbrough.

The numbers tell the same story. Norwich are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game across their last seven matches, with an expected goals split of 1.93 for and 1.61 against. They have failed to keep a single clean sheet all season and have scored in every game bar two. At home specifically, they have won two of three and are averaging 2.3 goals a game, a rate few Championship sides can live with when Carrow Road gets going.

Bolton arrive with the division's shakiest defensive record outside the bottom two. They have shipped 12 goals in seven games this season, averaging 1.71 conceded away from home, and have failed to score in three of their last seven outings. Half of their goals conceded this season have come in the final 15 minutes of matches, a damaging trend for a side already short on points.

The win over Cardiff will have eased some of the pressure, but Bolton have taken just one point from their last six games before that result and sit well adrift of the pack chasing the play-off places. A repeat of their recent away form, two defeats and a draw in their last three on the road, would leave them looking anxiously over their shoulder.

Norwich's recent form reads three wins and four defeats from their last seven, but every single one of those games has produced goals at both ends bar two. Bolton's form is bleaker: two wins, a draw and four defeats, with the only positive result in six games coming against a struggling Cardiff side last week. On the balance of the underlying numbers, Norwich's attack gives them the edge here, even if their own defensive record means this is unlikely to be one-way traffic.

Norwich have taken nine points from their opening seven league games this season, with three wins and four defeats. Bolton have managed seven points from the same number of matches, winning two, drawing one and losing four. Neither side is anywhere near the automatic promotion picture occupied by Swansea and West Ham, who have 17 and 15 points respectively after eight games, or the chasing play-off pack led by Middlesbrough and West Brom.

For Norwich, three points would edge them back towards that pack and ease any early-season nerves about defensive fragility. For Bolton, another defeat would leave them six points or more off the top seven with the early rounds of the campaign already threatening to define their season.

Norwich have the emphatic upper hand historically, winning six of the eight meetings recorded between the two clubs with just a single draw and one Bolton win. The pair have averaged 2.88 goals per meeting, with both teams scoring in 63 per cent of those games and over 2.5 goals landing in 75 per cent of them. The most recent meeting, back in February 2019, finished 4-0 to Norwich at the University of Bolton Stadium.

That H2H record predates the current squads and both current managerial reigns, so it carries limited predictive weight on its own. But the goals trend lines up neatly with what both sides are producing right now: an open, high-scoring fixture with goals at both ends more likely than not, and the draw rarely troubling the scorers historically. The over 2.5 goals and BTTS markets both look well supported by this pattern.

The gap that matters most here is in attack. Norwich are generating 15.71 shots and 5.71 shots on target per game against Bolton's 12.71 shots and 4.71 on target, and Norwich's expected goals for (1.93) comfortably outstrips Bolton's expected goals against (1.88), suggesting the hosts should create enough to trouble a defence that has failed to keep a clean sheet at home all season. Set-piece territory could matter too: Bolton are actually winning the corners battle in recent games, averaging 5.86 for to Norwich's 4.86, which could be one avenue back into the match if Bolton are forced to defend for long spells.

Both sides have set up in a 4-2-3-1 shape all season and there is no reason to expect a change here. Norwich should have most of their first-choice attacking options available, while Bolton will be forced into changes at the back.

Norwich: Grimshaw; Stacey, Córdoba, Alves, Chrisene; McLean, Diallo; Brooks, Ben Slimane, Musaba; Touré

Bolton: Bazunu; Famewo, Davies, Toal, Larrazabal; Erhahon, Sheehan; Iling-Junior, Rodrigues, Ito; Dalby

Kick-off at Carrow Road is at 13:30 BST on Sunday. The game is shown on Sky Sports where selected, with Sky Sports+ carrying the stream for subscribers.

Norwich's home scoring rate and Bolton's leaky away defence point firmly towards goals and a home win, but the value runs deeper than the headline market. Both teams to score, over 2.5 goals and Norwich's leading scorer to strike again all look well supported by the underlying numbers below.