Nice v Saint Etienne prediction, lineups and betting tips: Ligue 1 relegation playoff second leg

Nice are fighting to avoid becoming the first Ligue 1 club since 2001 to be relegated from the French top flight. That is the weight Claude Puel's side carry into Friday night at the Allianz Riviera. The first leg at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard ended goalless, a result that suits neither side perfectly but leaves Saint Etienne, the Ligue 2 promotion chasers, needing only a draw in Nice to go up. For a club that reached the Coupe de France final this season and played in the Europa League the season before, the prospect of Ligue 2 would be a catastrophic fall from grace.

Nice finished the 2025-26 Ligue 1 campaign in 16th place, just two points above the automatic relegation zone. They managed only seven wins in 33 league matches, with a run of six consecutive draws late in the season the only thing dragging them to the playoff rather than straight down. The most alarming number on their season sheet is the 60 goals conceded, more than any side in the division except bottom-placed Metz. Their last league victory came on 14 March, a 2-0 win at Angers.

Puel's men also arrived at this tie carrying fatigue, having lost 1-3 to Lens in the Coupe de France final on 23 May, with the first leg following just three days later. The good news, at least, is that Elye Wahi, who missed Tuesday's first leg through suspension after picking up a yellow card in the 0-0 draw against Metz on the final day, is eligible to return on Friday. His presence in the forward line makes a significant difference to Nice's attacking options.

Saint Etienne's story going into this second leg is one of dogged resilience. Philippe Montanier's side finished third in Ligue 2, survived a 7-6 penalty shootout against Rodez in the semi-final, with substitute goalkeeper Brice Maubleu saving four spot-kicks after coming on specifically for the shootout, and then held Nice scoreless at Geoffroy-Guichard in the first leg. But their attack has been the concern throughout the playoff run: Saint Etienne have not scored more than once in any of their last four matches, and Zuriko Davitashvili, the division's top scorer in Ligue 2 with 14 goals this season, has found the net just once in his last six games. Away from home, facing a side that, whatever their league form, has a strong recent record against them, Les Verts will need to find a goal to stay alive if Nice take the lead.

Philippe Montanier, Saint Etienne manager, confirmed ahead of the first leg that Djylian N'Guessan was out with a hamstring injury and that Ben Old was doubtful with the same problem. "Ben Old is uncertain, he has been affected since Rodez. We will make a final assessment on the morning of the match," Montanier said. He also noted the return of captain Florian Tardieu after two months out. For Nice, Puel has not made any confirmed statements since the first leg that are publicly available, but the return of Wahi from suspension is the headline selection news ahead of the return fixture.

The form table below tells a story of two sides who have barely scored in recent weeks. Nice's last 10 results, 1 win, 6 draws, 3 defeats, include the 0-0 draw in Saint Etienne on Tuesday and a 0-0 home stalemate against already-relegated Metz on 17 May. They have averaged just 0.7 goals per game over those 10 fixtures and failed to score in 4 of them. Saint Etienne's recent-form data covers only two matches in this dataset, both 0-0 draws, though their Ligue 2 season showed a team capable of sustained runs: they went nine games unbeaten before losing one of their last four in the regular season. The big caveat on Nice's form is that several of those six draws came when they were sitting deep and playing for scoreless results. At home, needing a win, a more attacking shape is likely, and that changes the picture.

Nice finished the regular Ligue 1 season in 16th place on 32 points from 34 games, two points above the automatic relegation places. That two-point cushion, built almost entirely on the six-draw run from April onwards, is what has given them a second chance here rather than a straight drop. For context on where they sit relative to the rest of the table: Paris Saint Germain won the title on 76 points, with Lens second on 70 and Lille third on 61. Nice, 44 points behind the champions, have endured one of the most difficult campaigns in recent club history.

Saint Etienne's position is simpler: they are the Ligue 2 third-place finishers trying to gate-crash the top flight. A draw here puts them into Ligue 1 next season. Lose, and they stay down. That asymmetry shapes the tactical picture, Saint Etienne come to the Allianz Riviera needing to hold rather than attack, while Nice must find a win they have been unable to manage for over two months.

The head-to-head record between these clubs is firmly in Nice's favour, particularly in the recent period. Across 46 all-time meetings, Nice lead with 22 wins against Saint Etienne's 17, with 7 draws. Crucially, Nice have won their last five consecutive head-to-head encounters, a run that includes the 8-0 destruction at the Allianz Riviera in September 2024 and a 2-1 Coupe de France victory in December 2025. The most common scoreline in this fixture historically is 0-1, which in itself points towards low-scoring encounters where the away side can nick a result on the counter. The first leg this season kept that thread going: another 0-0 at Geoffroy-Guichard.

The recent trend suggests Nice are the dominant force in this rivalry, but the current context complicates the read. Saint Etienne were playing at home in the previous four of those five Nice wins; this time they travel. Their Ligue 2 attack has shown it can find goals, Lucas Stassin finished the regular season with 12, but they have been shut down consistently in this playoff. The H2H form points Nice's way. The question is whether this Nice side, in their current state, can produce the performance the record suggests they should.

The key differentials table below highlights two gaps that dominate the analytical picture. First, Nice's corners-against average of 5.8 per game against Saint Etienne's corners-for average of 7.0 per game (in their two playoff matches) suggests Saint Etienne will generate set-piece danger if they can establish a foothold in the second half. Second, and more telling, is the xG data for Nice's last 10 games: their average xG for of 1.12 is modest but their average xG against of 1.75 shows a defence that concedes clear chances at a high rate. If Saint Etienne can force Nice onto the back foot early, those numbers become more threatening than the first-leg stats suggested. Nice's average possession of 43.4% in their last 10 games also tells you they are not a side that dominates the ball, they will need to be more proactive here than they were at Geoffroy-Guichard.

Nice are likely to revert to a 3-4-3 or 4-2-3-1 shape with Elye Wahi returning from suspension to lead the line. Hicham Boudaoui was forced off in the first leg with a head injury and his availability is a doubt. The defensive injury list remains significant, with Youssouf Ndayishimiye (muscle) and Moise Bombito (broken leg) both out.

Saint Etienne lined up in a 4-2-3-1 in the first leg with Maubleu in goal for the shootout against Rodez, though Larsonneur started on Tuesday. Julien Le Cardinal, Luan Gadegbeku and N'Guessan are all doubts or confirmed absentees.

Nice: Diouf; Bah, Dante, Mendy; Clauss, Coulibaly, Vanhoutte, Bard; Diop, Wahi, Cho

Saint Etienne: Larsonneur; Pedro, Nadé, Bernauer, Old; Moueffek, Kanté; Cardona, Davitashvili, Duffus; Stassin

Nice v Saint Etienne kicks off at 19:45 BST on Friday, 29 May at the Allianz Riviera. In the UK, no free-to-air broadcaster holds the rights for this fixture. The match is available to stream on beIN Sports, which carries Ligue 1 playoff coverage.

The value in this fixture sits firmly with Nice on their own turf. The head-to-head record across the last five meetings is impossible to ignore, and Saint Etienne arrive without a shot on target across 90 minutes of playoff football. Wahi's return from suspension adds the attacking threat that was missing in the first leg, and the home crowd at the Allianz Riviera will generate the urgency Nice could not find away from home. The angle here is a narrow Nice win in a tight, low-scoring second leg, one goal should settle it.