Newcastle v Liverpool: Prediction, lineups and betting tips

Newcastle open their season with the toughest fixture on the card. St James' Park hosts Liverpool on Sunday, and the champions' recent record in this fixture makes them favourites before a ball is kicked. Eddie Howe's side have not solved the Liverpool puzzle at home in almost three years, losing 3-2 there last August in the corresponding fixture.

Both clubs go into round one on zero points, but the day has already delivered plenty of goals elsewhere. Brighton put four past their opponents without reply on Friday, Arsenal and Brentford both won 3-0, and Manchester City and Chelsea both needed late goals to get off to winning starts. Newcastle and Liverpool close out the opening weekend under real pressure to keep pace.

Newcastle have made changes to the squad that faced Liverpool last season but the underlying problem remains the same: this fixture has been one-sided for the best part of three years. Howe's side lost the reverse fixture 4-1 at Anfield in January and were beaten 3-2 at home in August 2025, results that sum up a head-to-head record that has swung decisively away from St James' Park.

Joelinton is out with injury and Valentino Livramento is missing with a hamstring problem, weakening Newcastle in exactly the areas, central midfield and right-back, where Liverpool have hurt them before. Dan Burn and Lewis Miley are both doubts. Howe will need his front three to be more clinical than in recent meetings with Liverpool, in which Newcastle have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of the last five.

Liverpool arrive as the form side in this fixture, whatever their name is written under. The away side has won eight of the last ten meetings, and Arne Slot's team have scored in nine of those ten games. A trip to St James' Park has rarely troubled them recently, and a routine result here would set the tone for another title challenge.

Slot does have one selection headache. Conor Bradley is out with a knee injury, which disrupts his back four on the opening weekend of the campaign. That is a minor concern set against a head-to-head record that overwhelmingly favours the visitors.

Neither side has played a Premier League fixture yet this season, so there is no current-season form to lean on. What matters more here is the recent head-to-head pattern: Liverpool have won the last two meetings with Newcastle by an aggregate of 7-3, home and away, and Howe's side have not kept a clean sheet against them since 2022. That trend, more than anything either team did in pre-season, is the strongest guide to how Sunday should go.

Both clubs sit on zero points from zero games heading into kick-off, this being the first league fixture of the season for each. That is not the case for the rest of the division. Brighton, Arsenal and Brentford have already opened with wins and sit level on three points at the top of the early table, while Manchester City and Chelsea both ground out victories to join them.

A damaging result here matters more than a normal round-one defeat might. Losing to Liverpool at home would leave Newcastle chasing the pack from day one, while a Liverpool win would put down an early marker in a title race Arne Slot's side are expected to be part of again.

Liverpool's dominance of this fixture in recent seasons is stark. Of the last ten meetings, the away side has won eight, with only a single draw and a single home win in the sequence. The average of 3.6 goals per game across those ten fixtures comes with a 70% both-teams-to-score rate and a 70% over 2.5 rate, and the last meeting followed the pattern exactly: Liverpool won 4-1 at Anfield on 31 January 2026.

There is little in that record to suggest St James' Park offers Newcastle much protection. They were beaten 3-2 there in the corresponding fixture last August, and Liverpool have scored at least twice in four of the last five meetings between the sides. The numbers point squarely towards goals at both ends again, and a repeat of the pattern rather than a break from it looks the more likely outcome on Sunday.

The clearest gap between these two sides, going purely on the recent head-to-head, is goals conceded. Newcastle have failed to keep Liverpool quiet in any of the last five meetings, while Liverpool's away record in this fixture, eight wins from the last ten meetings regardless of venue, points to a team that travels well against this opponent specifically. If Newcastle cannot tighten up defensively from where they left off last season, this has the look of another game where the goals flow at both ends.

Kick-off is at 16:30 BST on Sunday. As the final fixture of the opening Premier League weekend, expect the match to be shown live on Sky Sports in the UK, with streaming available via Sky Go and NOW for existing subscribers.

The head-to-head numbers do most of the work here. Liverpool have won eight of the last ten against Newcastle, and 70% of those meetings have gone over 2.5 goals with both teams scoring. That combination shapes the picks below, with the away win at around 19/20 doing the heaviest lifting.