Netherlands v Morocco prediction, lineups & tips, World Cup 2026 round of 32

Ronald Koeman walked into his pre-match press conference in Monterrey looking every bit the manager of a side that has scored ten goals in three FIFA World Cup 2026 group games. The Netherlands head coach was asked directly whether he considered the Netherlands favourites against Morocco, and his answer was measured. "I'm not sure if we are the favourite in the match against Morocco," Koeman told reporters. "We need to prepare for Morocco, because it'll be a big game. It's a good team with a lot of quality, and they can score easily. We'll play well and win the match, because now if you lose you go home and if you win you stay in the tournament."

The Dutch, three-time World Cup finalists, are back in the last 32 of the expanded tournament having topped Group F with seven points. They are unbeaten in 15 World Cup matches in normal or extra time since losing the 2010 final to Spain, and they have never lost a World Cup game against African opposition across six previous meetings. Morocco, meanwhile, arrive as reigning African champions, after a CAF ruling overturned their AFCON final defeat to Senegal, and as the side that held Brazil to a 1-1 draw in the tournament's opening week.

Netherlands opened their campaign with a 2-2 draw against Japan, the only time they have conceded more than once in a game in this tournament, before dismantling Sweden 5-1 and barely getting out of second gear in a 3-1 win over Tunisia. Koeman's 4-3-3 relies on Ryan Gravenberch and Tijjani Reijnders covering ground in midfield while Frenkie de Jong dictates tempo, with Cody Gakpo and Donyell Malen providing the width to stretch defences. Virgil van Dijk, the captain, leads a back four that has kept zero clean sheets at this tournament, averaging 1.33 goals conceded per game across the three group fixtures.

Morocco's route to Monterrey has been quietly impressive under new head coach Mohamed Ouahbi, who took over from Walid Regragui in March, just three months before the tournament began, after guiding Morocco's under-20 side to the U-20 World Cup title in Chile. Ouahbi's side drew 1-1 with Brazil, beat Scotland 1-0, then put four past Haiti in a 4-2 win that showed their attacking range. They averaged 16 shots per game across the group stage, up sharply from nine shots per game at Qatar 2022, and they have scored six goals in three games, the same total they managed in seven games four years ago.

Brobbey has been the tournament's most unexpected story from the Dutch perspective, scoring three goals in two starts having barely featured before this summer. He and Denzel Dumfries were both managing minor knocks after the Tunisia win but have been passed fit and are expected to start. Micky van de Ven is set to return at left-back in place of Nathan Ake, which should be the only change from the XI that faced Tunisia.

For Morocco, Ismael Saibari, who is bound for Bayern Munich this summer, has scored in all three group games, becoming the first African player to net in each of their side's first three group stage matches at a World Cup. Achraf Hakimi continues at right-back with considerable license to advance. Ouahbi is expected to restore his first-choice XI after rotating for the Haiti game, with Noussair Mazraoui, Issa Diop, Ayyoub Bouaddi and Azzedine Ounahi all expected to return.

Koeman's preferred 4-3-3 starts with Bart Verbruggen in goal. Dumfries and Van de Ven are the full-backs, with Van Dijk and Jan Paul van Hecke in the centre. Gravenberch, De Jong and Reijnders form the midfield three, with Malen and Gakpo flanking Brobbey. Morocco's 4-2-3-1 places Bouaddi and Neil El Aynaoui in a double pivot, with Brahim Díaz, Ounahi and El Khannouss supporting Saibari. There is genuine uncertainty over whether Ouahbi uses Issa Diop or Sofiane Diop at centre-back, expect that to be confirmed at training on Monday.

Netherlands: Verbruggen; Dumfries, Van Dijk, Van Hecke, Van de Ven; Gravenberch, F de Jong, Reijnders; Malen, Brobbey, Gakpo

Morocco: Bono; Hakimi, Diop, Riad, Mazraoui; El Aynaoui, Bouaddi; Brahim, Ounahi, El Khannouss; Saibari

Netherlands v Morocco kicks off at 02:00 BST on Tuesday, 30 June 2026 at the Estadio BBVA in Monterrey, Mexico. The match is live on ITV1 in the UK and available to stream free on ITVX. Every game at the 2026 World Cup is shown free-to-air in the UK through the BBC and ITV's shared rights deal.