Mexico v South Korea prediction, lineups & tips: World Cup 2026 Group A

Two unbeaten sides collide at Estadio Akron in a Group A fixture that could all but settle the knockout-round places. Mexico host South Korea on Friday with a suspended Cesar Montes forcing Aguirre to reshuffle, but El Tri remain favourites on home soil.

Jon Fisher

Published

Thu 18 Jun, 05:09

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Group A of the 2026 FIFA World Cup is already taking shape, and Friday's clash at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara is the fixture that will define it. Mexico and South Korea go into matchday two level on three points after contrasting but convincing opening victories, and the winner will be all but assured of a place in the knockout rounds.

Mexico

1–0

Full time

South Korea

Fri 19 Jun, 02:00•Estadio Akron

Mexico opened the tournament with a 2-0 victory over South Africa on 11 June, Julián Quiñones and Raúl Jiménez scoring to give Javier Aguirre's side a clean sheet on debut in what was an electric occasion at Estadio Azteca. The win came at a cost, though. Defender César Montes was dismissed in stoppage time and serves a one-match suspension here, forcing Aguirre to reorganise his back line.

South Korea, meanwhile, came from behind to beat Czechia 2-1 on 12 June. They fell behind to a Ladislav Krejci header before Hwang In-beom equalised and then assisted Oh Hyeon-gyu's winner. Coach Hong Myung-bo's 3-4-2-1 system worked exactly as planned, and he is expected to name the same XI in Guadalajara.

Mexico have won four of their last five matches across all competitions, scoring 11 goals and conceding three in that run, with their most recent result the 2-0 win over South Africa. South Korea beat Trinidad and Tobago 5-0 on 31 May before their World Cup opener against Czechia, three wins from their last five outings in total.

The pre-match build-up has not been entirely routine for South Korea. A drone was spotted flying over a closed training session in Guadalajara on Wednesday, with Mexican military forces intercepting and neutralising the aircraft. Hong confirmed the incident but said it did not significantly disrupt preparations.

Last 6 · most recent left

Mexico

WW1 D0 L0

South Korea

WW1 D0 L0

Last 3 meetings · most recent first

Home wins

Draws

Away wins

Goals · H / A

6 / 6

Hong Myung-bo spoke ahead of the match about the challenge his side face at Estadio Akron. Addressing Mexico's home advantage, he said: "Our players know about the home team's advantage, and they have played before big crowds. The key is to grab the momentum of the match." On his defensive approach against Mexico's forwards, Hong added: "Their forwards can be really quick, and we may lose them with a momentary lapse. In those situations, defensive organisation and chemistry between players will be important."

Mexico4-3-3

1GRaúl Rangel
2DJorge Sánchez
4DEdson Álvarez
5DJohan Vásquez
23DJesús Gallardo
7MLuis Romo
6MErik Lira
26MBrian Gutiérrez
25FRoberto Alvarado
9FRaúl Jiménez
16FJulián Quiñones

Manager · Javier Aguirre

South Korea3-4-2-1

1GKim Seung-gyu
2DHan-Beom Lee
4DKim Min-jae
3DGi-Hyuk Lee
22MYoung-woo Seol
6MHwang In-beom
8MSeung Ho Paik
15MKim Moon-hwan
19FKang-in Lee
10FJae-sung Lee
7FSon Heung-min

Manager · Myung-Bo Hong

Mexico v South Korea kicks off at 02:00 BST on Friday, 19 June 2026 at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara. In the UK, the match is on BBC Two, with a free live stream on BBC iPlayer. Commentary is also available on BBC Radio 5 Live and through the BBC Sounds app.

Mexico have won both of their previous World Cup meetings with South Korea, 3-1 at France '98 and 2-1 at Russia 2018.
All three of Mexico and South Korea's last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced over 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in all three (100% BTTS rate).
The last meeting between the sides, a friendly in Nashville on 10 September 2025, ended 2-2, Mexico needed a 94th-minute Giménez equaliser to avoid defeat.
Mexico have won all five of their World Cup matches against Asian opposition, scoring two or more goals in each of their last four such victories.
South Korea have not beaten Mexico since a 1-0 win in February 2006, going winless in four subsequent meetings.

Headline prediction · our pick

✓ HitConfidence · medium

match result: mexico to win

Mexico have never lost to Asian opposition at a World Cup and they carry a perfect record against South Korea at the tournament specifically. Playing at altitude in Guadalajara, with the crowd as a genuine 12th man, Aguirre's side have the attacking tools in Jiménez and Quiñones to find a goal. The loss of Montes is a concern, and Son Heung-min is exactly the player to test a reconfigured back line, but the head-to-head data and home advantage tip the balance toward El Tri. South Korea's quality through Hwang and Son should earn them something at the other end, though, making a narrow home win the most likely outcome.

Best Price1/1bet365 · score 2-1

✓ Prediction landed

TIP 01✗ Miss

Correct Score: 2-1

All three of the last three meetings between these sides have ended with goals at both ends, and South Korea showed at the 2018 World Cup that they can find the net against Mexico. A 2-1 to the hosts mirrors the most recent competitive meeting and the most likely outcome given Mexico's attacking quality and South Korea's counter-attacking threat through Son Heung-min. The 2018 World Cup group match finished 2-1 to Mexico, lending further weight to this scoreline.

TIP 02✓ Hit

Over 2.5 Goals: Under

Both sides showed defensive discipline in their openers, Mexico kept a clean sheet against South Africa, and South Korea conceded only once against Czechia. The stakes of this fixture (the winner is essentially through to the knockout rounds) will encourage caution, and both managers will be wary of overcommitting. The head-to-head average is inflated by friendlies; in their one competitive World Cup meeting, the game finished 2-1, under the 2.5 line.

TIP 03✗ Miss

Both Teams to Score: Yes

BTTS has landed in all three of the last three meetings between Mexico and South Korea, a 100% rate. South Korea showed in both the September 2025 friendly (scoring twice) and against Czechia that they are not a side that sits and parks, Son Heung-min, Lee Kang-in and Hwang In-beom give them enough quality to test Mexico's reshuffled back line at least once. At 11/10, the Yes carries real value.

TIP 04✗ Miss

Anytime Goalscorer: Raul Jimenez

Jiménez scored against South Africa in the opener and has found the net in each of his last two appearances against South Korea, both in friendlies in November 2020 and September 2025. The 35-year-old leads Mexico's line in a 4-1-4-1 and is the focal point of their attack. With South Korea's back three likely to be tested by wide runners pulling defenders out of position, Jiménez should find space in behind.

TIP 05✓ Hit

Double Chance: Home or Draw

Mexico have not lost to South Korea since 2006, a run of three wins and a draw in four subsequent meetings. Playing on home soil at a World Cup co-hosted in Mexico, with altitude in their favour and the crowd generating genuine pressure, the chance of a South Korea away win is small. At 4/11, backing Mexico or Draw removes the most unlikely of the three results at a short but reliable price.

Build the Mexico v South Korea bet

BetFootball Builder · 3 Legs✗ Miss

Home Win

✓ Hit

Match Result

1/1

Mexico's record against South Korea in World Cup play is two wins from two. The home advantage at Estadio Akron and the altitude factor compound an already favourable historical picture. This anchors the builder on the most likely match outcome.

Yes

✗ Miss

Both Teams to Score

11/10

A Mexico win and BTTS are not correlated outcomes, Mexico can win 2-1 with both teams scoring, as they did at Russia 2018. With South Korea's counter-attacking quality through Son and Hwang, a clean sheet for either side looks unlikely based on three successive BTTS results in head-to-head meetings.

Raul Jimenez

✗ Miss

Anytime Goalscorer

2/1

Jiménez is the least correlated leg to the result and BTTS, he can score regardless of which team wins. His goal involvement in the opener and his strong scoring record specifically against South Korea makes him the obvious Mexican goalscorer pick to complete the builder.

Combined Price

58/5

Stake£10.00

Returns£126.00

Profit+£116.00

World Cup · season 2026 · Group ALive snapshot

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	-1	4
3	South Korea	3	1	0	2	-1	3
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	-4	1