Mexico v South Africa prediction, lineups & tips: World Cup 2026 opener at the Azteca

Forty years after he played for Belgium against Mexico in the 1986 World Cup opener at the very same stadium, Hugo Broos returns to the Estadio Azteca on Thursday, this time as head coach of South Africa. The symmetry is remarkable, but the task facing his Bafana Bafana side is no less daunting. Mexico, one of three co-hosts of the FIFA World Cup 2026, open the expanded 48-team tournament against the only team to have shared a World Cup opening fixture with them before, replicating the exact Group A curtain-raiser from Johannesburg in 2010.

The Azteca itself makes history on Thursday as the first stadium to host three FIFA World Cup opening matches, having staged the ceremony in 1970 and 1986. Around 80,000 fans are expected to pack it out, setting up one of the most atmospheric scenes the tournament's first day has ever produced.

Mexico go into the tournament having won the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup, a 2-1 victory over the United States in the final, and in the best form they have carried into a World Cup in years. Javier Aguirre, in his third separate stint as Mexico manager, has the side unbeaten in eight matches (W6, D2) since November 2025, including draws with Portugal and Belgium and a 5-1 demolition of Serbia in Toluca on 4 June. El Tri qualified automatically as co-hosts, so this is their first competitive fixture since July 2025.

There is, however, one uncomfortable statistic. Mexico have never won a World Cup opening match. Their record across seven previous appearances in first-day fixtures stands at five defeats and two draws, the most recent being the 1-1 draw with South Africa in Johannesburg in 2010. Aguirre admitted at his pre-match press conference on Wednesday that he was unaware of the run until a journalist raised it. "We must break that trend," he said. "That's a good stat, I should share it with the guys. It's another reason why we have to go out there and win the game."

South Africa arrive as the group's clear underdogs, ranked 60th in the world against Mexico's 14th. Their qualifying campaign was chaotic: they were docked three points for fielding the ineligible Teboho Mokoena in a win over Lesotho, dropped to second in their CAF group, then recovered to finish a point ahead of Nigeria and Benin and reach their first World Cup since they hosted in 2010. Hugo Broos has guided Bafana Bafana to the tournament for the first time in 16 years and secured a third-place finish at the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations along the way. This is his send-off: the Belgian has confirmed 2026 marks the end of a 56-year career as player and coach. "I am dreaming of a beautiful ending where South Africa reach the knockout phase of a World Cup for the first time after three first-round exits," Broos told AFP ahead of the fixture.

Mexico's pre-tournament form is the strongest data point in their favour. The 5-1 win over Serbia on 4 June was their third straight victory, following a 2-0 defeat of Ghana and a 1-0 win over Australia, and left Aguirre with a settled squad and no injury concerns from the result. The exception is striker Santiago Gimenez, who remains doubtful with an unspecified issue, and goalkeeper Luis Ángel Malagón, who is also unavailable. Marcel Ruiz is another absentee.

South Africa have been less convincing in their final preparations. They went into the tournament having won none of their last four matches (D2, L2), scoring just three goals across those fixtures. Broos has named 36-year-old Themba Zwane in his squad, defending the selection by saying the veteran midfielder is "fit after several injuries and can make a significant impact." Midfielder Teboho Mokoena, who caused controversy during qualifying, is expected to start. South Africa's primary attacking threats are Oswin Appollis and Lyle Foster, who leads the line.

Aguirre struck a measured tone ahead of kick-off, warning his players against the complacency that comes with home advantage and heavy favouritism. "The advantage of playing at home, the altitude and the support of your fans should make a difference; that's something the players have to handle," he told reporters on Wednesday. "As the favourite, you can't lose your head."

Broos, meanwhile, told his players to tune out the noise. "For sure it is a big challenge, to play in front of 87,000 Mexicans," he said, "but I will tell the players to focus on the match. The Mexicans at the stadium do not play, they just shout and sing and dance. We have to focus on the game and, if we can do that and not be bothered by the noise, we can have a good game tomorrow."

Aguirre is expected to set up in a 4-3-3 or 4-1-4-1, with Ochoa's potential World Cup history-making appearance in goal the headline selection question. Edson Alvarez anchors defence alongside Cesar Montes, with Jorge Sanchez and Jesus Gallardo as full-backs. Jimenez leads the attack with Quinones and Alvarado on the flanks.

Broos is likely to deploy a 4-2-3-1 built for defensive solidity, looking to catch Mexico on the counter through the pace of Appollis on the wing and Foster's hold-up play at centre-forward.

Mexico: Ochoa; Sanchez, Alvarez, Montes, Gallardo; Fidalgo, Gutierrez, Pineda; Alvarado, Jimenez, Quinones

South Africa: Williams; Muadu, Okon, Makhanya, Modiba; Sithole, Mokoena; Moremi, Zwane, Appollis; Foster

Mexico v South Africa kicks off at 8:00pm BST on Thursday, 11 June. The match is live on ITV1 in the UK and available to stream free on ITVX. All 104 matches of the 2026 FIFA World Cup are free-to-air in the UK, split between ITV and BBC.