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Matchday 3
26th · Home
17:45Thu, 22 Oct 2026
32nd · Away
Venue Merkur-ArenaWatch (UK) TNT Sports

Sturm Graz v Marseille: Europa League preview, predicted line-ups & tips

Sturm Graz and Marseille meet in League Stage matchday 3 with one point and none respectively. The numbers lean towards an away win at the Merkur-Arena.

Published
Wed 21 Oct, 20:05

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Round hook

played at the Merkur-Arena. Neither side has won yet. On the supplied standings snapshot, Sturm Graz sit 26th with one point from two games, while Marseille have lost both of theirs. The standings feed is truncated, so Marseille's exact position is not available. The top 8 go straight to the last 16 and the next 16 enter the play-offs, so a third game without a win would start to narrow the margin for error. Sturm Graz also have the weaker goal record, with none scored from two games.

BET FOOTBALL
Sturm GrazSturm Graz
VS
MarseilleMarseille
Thu 22 Oct, 17:45•Merkur-Arena

How both sides got here

Sturm Graz opened with a 0-0 draw at home to Rennes on 16 September. They then lost 3-0 away at Bournemouth on 15 October. The form data shows an expected goals figure of 0.37 for and 2.88 against across those two games, with average possession of 38%. Their only clean sheet came in the draw with Rennes.

Marseille lost 4-1 away at Beşiktaş on 17 September, with their only goal arriving between the 16th and 30th minute. They then lost 1-0 at home to Olympiakos Piraeus on 15 October. That leaves them with 1 goal scored and 5 conceded, an average of 2.5 against per game. Their underlying numbers are better than the results: 12.5 shots per game, 0.9 expected goals for and 0.63 against.

Rotation context

Neither side has banked points, so a heavily rotated XI looks unlikely from either dugout. Sturm Graz have used a 5-3-2 in both games and a lengthy injury list limits what the hosts can change anyway. Marseille have started in a 4-2-3-1 both times. The visitors have conceded in every game so far, and the hosts are 0-for-2 in front of goal. Both lines of selection are therefore likely to be driven by need rather than squad management.

Last 6 · most recent left
Sturm GrazSturm Graz
L3-0 (Bournemouth - Sturm Graz)15/10/2026D0-0 (Sturm Graz - Rennes)16/09/2026W0 D1 L1
MarseilleMarseille
L0-1 (Marseille - Olympiakos Piraeus)15/10/2026L4-1 (Beşiktaş - Marseille)17/09/2026W0 D0 L2
Europa League · season 2026 · UEFA Europa LeagueLive snapshot
#TeamPGDPts
25Hapoel Beer ShevaHapoel Beer Sheva2-11
26Sturm GrazSturm Graz2-31
27NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen2-51
28Celta VigoCelta Vigo2-20
29AnderlechtAnderlecht2-20
301899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim2-30
31PlzenPlzen2-40
32MarseilleMarseille2-40
33CelticCeltic2-50

Predicted line-ups

Sturm Graz could line up in their usual 5-3-2 with Helac in goal and a back five drawn from Malic, Vallci, Haider, Heil and Maierhofer. The midfield could be Gorenc Stankovič, Hödl and Matoshi, with Kayombo and Beganović up front. Marseille may stay in a 4-2-3-1 with Kondogbia and Aguerd in defence, Gomes and Harit behind a front line of Weah, Paixão and Gouiri, with Maupay leading. These are projections, and the hosts have limited depth in attack.

Where to watch

Kick-off is at 17:45 BST on Thursday 22 October 2026. The match is shown on TNT Sports where selected, and one UK schedule lists it on TNT Sports 6.

Stats and context

  • Sturm Graz have scored 0 goals in 2 Europa League games and failed to score in both, per the season stats.
  • Marseille have conceded 5 goals in 2 games, with 4 of them coming away from home.
  • Marseille have averaged 12.5 shots and 4 on target per game, against 8.5 and 2.5 for Sturm Graz, per the recent-form aggregates.
  • bet365 price Over 2.5 goals at 4/6 and both teams to score at 3/5.
TIP 01

Correct Score: 1-2

The most likely outline is a Marseille win with a home goal, given they have conceded in both games. Sturm Graz have failed to score in both, so the home goal is not guaranteed. The 1-2 score is priced at 15/2 on bet365, which is a long price for the scoreline the data most closely supports.

Best Price
15/2
Place bet
Odds correct at time of publish.
TIP 02

Over 2.5 Goals: Over

Marseille's two games produced 5 and 1 goals, and Sturm Graz's season stats show one over 2.5 game on the goals-against line. The price is 4/6 and reflects that. The risk is Sturm Graz's low output, as their expected goals for is 0.37.

Best Price
2/3
Place bet
Odds correct at time of publish.
TIP 03

Both Teams to Score: Yes

Marseille have scored in one of two games and Sturm Graz in none, which makes this a closer call than the price of 3/5 suggests. Marseille's average of 2.5 conceded per game is the main argument for yes. A clean sheet for the visitors remains a clear risk given the hosts' weak attack.

Best Price
3/5
Place bet
Odds correct at time of publish.
TIP 04

Anytime Goalscorer: A. Gouiri

Gouiri is in the supplied Marseille squad and could start in an attacking role behind the lead striker. Marseille have generated 4 shots on target per game, so chances should come. The risk is that the supplied data names no Marseille scorer this season, so the pick rests on role rather than output.

Best Price
3/2
Place bet
Odds correct at time of publish.
TIP 05

Draw No Bet: Away

Marseille's shot and xG numbers support a result, but their defence has been poor. Removing the draw protects against a low-scoring game, as the visitors' goals-for average is 0.5. The Home/Away price of 1.45 on bet365 shows the market also leans to the visitors.

Best Price
9/20
Place bet
Odds correct at time of publish.

Build the Sturm Graz v Marseille bet

BetFootball Builder · 3 LegsCombined Price Below
Away Win
Match Result
1/1

Marseille are the favourites on shot volume and expected goals. This anchors the builder around the visitors scoring at least once.

Yes
Both Teams to Score
3/5

The data shows Marseille concede regularly, so a home goal is plausible. This sits alongside an away win, as a 1-2 result would settle both legs. Marseille average 6 corners for and Sturm Graz concede 5.5, which supports sustained visiting pressure.

A. Gouiri
Anytime Goalscorer
3/2

An away win needs goals from the front line, and Gouiri could be the visitors' most direct route to them. This leg is independent of the home goal in the BTTS leg.

Combined Price
7/1
Stake£10.00
Returns£80.00
Profit+£70.00
Build at bet365
Builder goes to bet365 · 18+ · GambleAware
Odds correct at time of publish.