Marseille v Le Havre: Preview, predicted line-ups & team news

Le Havre arrive in Marseille with the worst record in the division. Two points from seven games, five defeats and five goals scored put them 18th, and they have not won a league game this season.

Marseille are not exactly cruising either. A 2-0 victory at Troyes was followed by a 5-2 win at Angers last Sunday.

That swing from ragged to rampant is the story at the Velodrome, and Le Havre look the ideal opponent for the good version to turn up.

Marseille sit 10th on nine points from seven games, with a goal difference of plus four. They have won three, lost four and drawn none, so there has been no middle ground.

At home they have won one of three, scoring seven and conceding five. Their season average is 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, and their recent-form numbers show an average xG of 1.69 for against 2.10 against. The defence has been more exposed than the scoreline suggests.

Marseille's late goals have been a feature. Five of their 14 have come between the 76th and 90th minutes, and 35.71% of their total arrives in that spell.

Le Havre have not won, drawn twice and lost five. They were beaten 3-1 at home by Auxerre last Sunday, after a 1-0 defeat at Lille. Their last goalless draw was at home to Angers on 12 September.

The scoring problem is stark. They average 0.71 goals per game across the season, have failed to score in three of seven, and have not managed more than two in any match. They concede 1.6 a game and have kept one clean sheet.

For the visitors, this is a relegation fight already. They sit two points behind 17th-placed Troyes and four behind Le Mans in the relegation play-off place.

Across their last seven league games Marseille have won three and lost four, with no draws. Le Havre have won none, drawn two and lost five. The surface numbers favour the hosts, but Marseille's xG against of 2.10 per game is a flaw that a better attack could exploit. Le Havre are not that attack. They average 15.71 shots a game, more than Marseille's 13.14, yet score 0.71 goals per match. That is a finishing problem, and it is hard to see it ending against a side that has started finding the net.

Marseille are 10th with nine points from seven games. They are five points behind the top five, who are all on 14, and have a four-point buffer over nothing that matters yet. A win would lift them into the pack just outside the European places.

Le Havre are 18th on two points from seven, with a goal difference of minus six. Troyes are 17th on four points and Le Mans 16th on six, so the gap is small but growing. Another defeat would leave Le Havre needing a run of results long before the winter break.

Marseille have won all seven meetings in the supplied record, with no draws and no Le Havre wins. Those games have averaged 4.14 goals, with both teams scoring in 71% (five of seven) and over 2.5 goals in 86% (six of seven). The last meeting was a 1-0 Marseille win at Stade Oceane on 10 May 2026, the lowest-scoring of the lot.

The pattern is clear for the Velodrome fixtures: Marseille won 6-2 on 18 October 2025 and 5-1 on 5 January 2025. This Le Havre side has scored five goals all season, so the visitors' 1.0 per game on the road looks the limit of their threat. The goals line and a Marseille win look more reliable than both teams to score, and a comfortable home scoreline is the lean in the correct score market.

The biggest gap is in scoring. Marseille average 2.0 goals per game across their last seven against 0.71 for Le Havre, and the xG figures say the same: 1.69 against 1.38. Marseille also have the ball, averaging 57.6% possession to 49.6%.

Le Havre's compensation is volume. They average 15.71 shots against 13.14 and win more corners, 5.71 a game against 4.43. If they are to take anything, it will come from set pieces and a Marseille defence that has conceded in five of seven. Marseille's 4.86 shots on target a game are a fraction better than Le Havre's 4.71, so the hosts' edge is in what they do with chances.

Kick-off is 16:15 GMT on Sunday 25 October, as the clocks go back in the UK that morning. A UK broadcaster has not been confirmed for this game. Ligue 1+ is the likely home for it as the league's streaming service, but the specific channel is not confirmed, and this page will be updated closer to kick-off.

The value sits in goals rather than the result. Marseille at 1/2 is a fair price for a side playing the league's worst attack, but Over 2.5 goals at 4/9 is backed by an 86% H2H rate and by Le Havre conceding 1.6 per game. The bet builder leans on that, with Gouiri's finishing doing the heavy lifting on the player leg.