Liverpool v Nottingham Forest: Prediction, lineups & odds

Anfield has not seen a routine home banker so far this season. Liverpool drew their opener 2-2 at Newcastle, a scoreline that flattered a defence which has now shipped goals in bunches rather than in isolation, and Nottingham Forest arrive off the back of a goalless afternoon at the City Ground against Leeds. Both clubs go into round two still searching for their first win, which turns a fixture that on paper looks one-sided into something with an edge to it, particularly given how porous Liverpool have looked at the back.

Liverpool's opening result was a 2-2 draw away at Newcastle, a match in which the champions' engine room again looked productive going forward but leaky at the other end. The recent-form data shows Liverpool averaging 2 goals for and 2 goals against per game so far, with an expected-goals split of 2.37 for and 1.94 against, numbers that suggest a side scoring at a rate to win most matches but conceding at a rate that keeps games alive.

Possession has not been the issue. Liverpool have averaged 65% of the ball and 20 shots a game, with 5.5 on target, comfortably enough control to dominate territory. The problem, on this early sample, is what happens when the ball is at the other end: Liverpool have failed to keep a clean sheet in either match played, and both of their fixtures have gone over 2.5 goals.

Nottingham Forest's season began with a 1-0 home defeat to Leeds, a result in which they managed just 0.66 expected goals from 12 shots, only two of which were on target. The average possession of 56% in that match suggests Forest were not simply overrun, but a failure to score and a failed-to-score count already standing at one from one hints at a blunt edge going forward that a trip to Anfield will not obviously cure.

There is little pressure attached to this fixture in terms of table stakes so early in the campaign, but a first away point of the season would matter to a squad still finding its shape after one league game.

Neither side has taken all three points yet this season. Liverpool sit on one draw from one, having shared the spoils 2-2 at Newcastle, while Forest have a single defeat to their name after going down 0-1 at home to Leeds. On the surface that puts both clubs on a similarly modest footing, but Liverpool's underlying numbers, averaging 20 shots and 2.37 expected goals a game, point to a side that should be taking more from its matches than the results column currently shows. Forest's low shot volume in their opener suggests the sterner test of facing Liverpool's front line at Anfield could be a difficult watch.

Two rounds into the new season, the Premier League table is still finding its shape, with Manchester City and Arsenal both on 6 points from 2 games at the top and both yet to concede more than a couple of goals. Liverpool and Forest do not yet appear among that early pace-setting group, both still searching for a first win after one league fixture apiece. For Liverpool, three points would settle any early nerves about a defence that has already conceded twice in a single match this season. For Forest, another loss would leave them looking up at a division that already has four teams on maximum points, adding early pressure to a start that has so far produced no goals at all.

Liverpool hold the clear historical edge in this fixture. Across the last 9 meetings, the home side in each game has won 5 times, the away side 3, with 1 draw, and the average of 2 goals per meeting has come with a modest 22% both-teams-to-score rate and a 33% over 2.5 rate. The last meeting, in February 2026, finished 0-1 to Liverpool at the City Ground, following a 3-0 Liverpool win at Anfield the previous November and a 1-1 draw at the City Ground in January 2025.

That sequence shows Liverpool have won 4 of the last 5 head-to-heads, with the solitary blemish a draw rather than a Forest win. The low BTTS rate across the sample suggests these fixtures have often been one-sided rather than end-to-end, which cuts against backing goals at both ends here even with Liverpool's leaky defence this season. The over 2.5 rate of 33% across the head-to-head sits below what Liverpool's current form data implies, hinting the market price on Over 2.5 Goals could carry some value given how differently this Liverpool side has started the campaign.

The gap in expected goals for is the standout number here. Liverpool's 2.37 xG per game so far dwarfs Forest's 0.66, a difference of well over a goal and a half that reflects both sides' contrasting starts. Shot volume tells a similar story: Liverpool have averaged 20 attempts a game to Forest's 12, with 5.5 on target against Forest's 2, a gap that should translate into control of the game's key moments even allowing for the small sample size involved so early in the season.

Kick-off is at 12:30 BST on Saturday 29 August. A UK broadcaster for this fixture has not been confirmed at the time of writing, so readers should check back closer to kick-off for details on live coverage.

The clearest angle on this card comes from the expected-goals gap between the sides rather than the head-to-head record, which has historically leaned towards low-scoring Liverpool wins. With Liverpool's 2.37 xG per game running well clear of Forest's 0.66, and both of Liverpool's matches this season already going over 2.5 goals, the goals markets look better value than backing the head-to-head trend of tight scorelines to repeat.