Liverpool v Atletico Madrid prediction: Champions League preview, lineups & tips

Liverpool open their Champions League league phase at Anfield against Atletico Madrid, with history between the two suggesting goals at both ends.

Lauren Lister

Published

Tue 8 Sept, 10:43

Updated

Wed 9 Sept, 21:55

The Champions League's league phase format means every fixture from here counts individually towards a single table, and Liverpool could not have asked for a juicier way to start theirs.

Atletico Madrid arrive at Anfield for matchday one of the competition's group-less first phase, a tie that has previous - and not the dull kind.

This is not a dead rubber to be squeezed in in between bigger nights. Points now shape seeding for the knockout play-off round later in the season, and a home win would be exactly the kind of start Liverpool will want on the board early.

Liverpool

2–1

Full time

Atletico Madrid

Wed 9 Sept, 20:00•Anfield

Liverpool and Atletico Madrid have met five times in the Champions League and the head-to-head record leans towards the hosts, with Liverpool winning three of those and Atletico two, no draws between them at all.

The most recent of those meetings came at Anfield almost exactly a year ago, when Liverpool edged a seven-goal thriller. Games between these two simply do not stay goalless, and that history is the backdrop to matchday one rather than any tale of qualifying rounds, since this fixture opens the league phase for both clubs rather than following on from an earlier tie this season.

A midweek Champions League opener at home, live on television and following straight off the back of a domestic weekend, is exactly the kind of fixture that tempts a head coach into fringe changes.

Liverpool's options up front are already thinner than they would like given the players missing through injury, which should push the more experienced forwards straight into the side rather than allow for rotation.

Atletico, with nothing in the supplied data to suggest injury absences of their own, look better placed to name a settled XI.

Last 6 · most recent left

Liverpool

No recent formW0 D0 L0

Atletico Madrid

No recent formW0 D0 L0

Champions League · season 2026 · UEFA Champions LeagueLive snapshot

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
12	Borussia Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	AEK Athens FC	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	AS Roma	1	0	1	0	0	1
18	Shakhtar Donetsk	1	0	1	0	0	1
19	PSV Eindhoven	1	0	1	0	0	1
20	Fenerbahçe	1	0	1	0	0	1
21	Villarreal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Lille	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Slavia Praha	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Club Brugge KV	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Inter	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Atletico Madrid	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Napoli	1	0	0	1	-1	0

Champions League

Last 5 meetings · most recent first

Home wins

Draws

Away wins

Goals · H / A

10 / 8

Liverpool4-2-3-1

1GAlisson Becker
33DR. Araújo
5DJ. Jacquet
4DV. van Dijk
6DM. Kerkez
8MD. Szoboszlai
10MA. Mac Allister
73MR. Ngumoha
7MF. Wirtz
29MB. Barcola
9FA. Isak

Manager · Andoni Iraola

Atletico Madrid4-4-2

13GJ. Oblak
14DMarcos Llorente
21DC. Romero
18DMarc Pubill
17DD. Hancko
20MG. Simeone
8MPablo Barrios
6MKoke
10MÁlex Baena
7FLee Kang-In
19FJ. Álvarez

Manager · D. Simeone

Kick-off at Anfield is 20:00 BST on Wednesday 9 September. TNT Sports holds the UK rights to Champions League coverage this season and is the confirmed broadcaster at competition level, so this tie should be available to subscribers through that service.

This is matchday one of the league phase rather than a knockout leg, so there is no extra time or penalties on the night whatsoever - a draw is simply a draw, with both sides taking a point into the rest of their league phase campaign.

Liverpool have won three of the five Champions League meetings between the sides, with Atletico winning two and no draws in the set.
The average goal count across those five meetings sits at 3.6 per game, with both teams scoring in three of the five (a 60% BTTS rate).
Three of the five previous meetings have gone over 2.5 goals - a 60% over rate across the head-to-head.
The last meeting, at Anfield in September 2025, finished 3-2 to Liverpool.

Headline prediction · our pick

✓ HitConfidence · medium

match result: liverpool to win

Liverpool at home in a Champions League night at Anfield is about as favourable a starting point as this competition offers, and bet365 have the hosts as clear favourites at 4/6 (1.75) with Atletico out at 18/5 (4.60). The head-to-head suggests goals are close to guaranteed whichever way this goes, and with Liverpool's own injury list forcing their more attacking options straight into the side, you have to feel there are goals in this one at both ends. Atletico have shown before they can hurt Liverpool on the counter, so a clean sheet feels unlikely, but the balance of history and home advantage points towards a home win with goals shared.

Best Price3/4bet365 · score 2-1

✓ Prediction landed

TIP 01✓ Hit

Correct Score: 2-1

The head-to-head between these two rarely settles for a single goal margin, and a 2-1 scoreline mirrors the kind of tight, end-to-end game these fixtures have produced before. It is a reasonable price given how often both sides have found the net against each other.

TIP 02✓ Hit

Over 2.5 Goals: Over

Three of the five previous meetings between these two have gone over 2.5 goals, and with an average of 3.6 goals per game across the head-to-head, backing the over at 1/2 (1.50) looks like fair reflection of how these fixtures tend to play out.

TIP 03✓ Hit

Both Teams to Score: Yes

A 60% BTTS rate across the head-to-head, and Atletico's willingness to go toe-to-toe on the counter at Anfield in recent visits, make the case for both teams scoring again here.

TIP 04✗ Miss

Anytime Goalscorer: A. Isak

With Ekitike and Chiesa both ruled out, Isak looks set to lead the line as Liverpool's central attacking focus, and a player in that role against a defence that has previously shipped goals at Anfield is a sensible way into the goalscorer market.

TIP 05✓ Hit

Double Chance: Home or Draw

For those wanting a lower-risk route into the home advantage without needing Liverpool to actually win, Home or Draw at 1.29 offers some cover given how tightly contested these two have made previous meetings.

Build the Liverpool v Atletico Madrid bet

BetFootball Builder · 3 Legs✓ Hit

Home Win

✓ Hit

Match Result

3/4

The anchor leg. Liverpool at home with the head-to-head record in their favour is the strongest single conviction in this preview, and it underpins the rest of the builder.

Yes

✓ Hit

Both Teams to Score

1/2

Complements the home win without depending on a specific margin, and the 60% BTTS rate across these five meetings supports pairing it with the result rather than backing a clean sheet.

Over

✓ Hit

Over 2.5 Goals

1/2

The third leg leans on the same open, end-to-end tendency as the BTTS pick - expect a game that produces plenty of corners and shots too, not just goals, given how these two have gone at each other before.

Combined Price

47/16

Stake£10.00

Returns£39.38

Profit+£29.38