Liverpool v Arsenal: Preview, predicted line-ups & team news

Liverpool's manager does not want to talk about the title in October, and it is easy to see why. Liverpool host the reigning champions on Sunday, and victory would move them within three points of Arsenal.

The Liverpool manager tried to dampen the noise in his pre-match press conference on Friday. "It is still October," he said, before adding that Liverpool know how good Arsenal are.

Arsenal have their own distractions.

Liverpool are fifth on 15 points from eight games, with four wins, three draws and one defeat. The surprise is where the points have come from. They have won three of four away games and scored seven goals on the road, but at Anfield they have won once in four, scoring just four goals.

That home record includes a 0-3 loss to Manchester City on 11 October. Liverpool bounced back with a 2-1 win at Brentford and a 2-0 home win over Brighton last weekend, which keeps them unbeaten in two since the City defeat.

He has six league goals in seven appearances, and Liverpool have failed to score in only two of their eight league games.

Arsenal are second on 21 points with seven wins from eight, level with leaders Manchester City, who have played a game more. Their only defeat was 3-0 at Brighton on 19 September. They have won all four home games and have conceded only twice at the Emirates.

The defence is the foundation. Arsenal have kept five clean sheets in eight, concede 0.63 goals per game and allow an average xG of 0.46 in their recent games. The question is whether they can score at Anfield: they have netted only four times in four away league games.

Arsenal have won seven and lost one of their last eight in the league. Liverpool have won four, drawn three and lost one. On paper that gap is wide, but the draws are telling. Liverpool have shared the spoils with Newcastle, Nottingham Forest and Fulham, and none of those sides are in the top half of the table. Arsenal's seven wins, meanwhile, have come with low-scoring margins: five of them are by one or two goals. Arsenal have the better underlying numbers, with an average of 1.57 xG for and 0.46 against, against 1.19 and 1.25 for Liverpool. Liverpool's recent home form is the only reason this is not a straightforward Arsenal pick.

Arsenal are second on 21 points from eight games, level with Manchester City, who have played nine. They sit six points clear of fifth-placed Liverpool, who have 15 points from eight. Brighton are third on 19 from nine and Chelsea fourth on 16, so Liverpool's pursuit of the top four is a close fight.

A home win would cut the gap to Arsenal to three points with a game in hand on City, and put Liverpool in the title conversation. A defeat would leave them nine behind Arsenal and only one point clear of Brentford in sixth. A draw suits Arsenal rather more than it suits Liverpool, but neither side can complain with a point.

Across the last 10 meetings, Liverpool have won three, Arsenal two and five have been drawn. Those games have averaged 2.9 goals. Both teams scored in seven of them (70%) and six went over 2.5 goals (60%). One of the 10 was a friendly in July 2024. The last meeting was a 0-0 draw at the Emirates Stadium on 8 January 2026.

The pattern points to level scores. The last four league meetings were 2-2, 2-2, 1-0 and 0-0, so Arsenal have not beaten Liverpool in that run. The goals market looks a coin flip, though recent form leans Under: Liverpool and Arsenal have each seen only four of their last eight games go over 2.5. Both teams to score is the safer lean, and 1-1 is the correct score we would back.

The biggest gap is at the back. Arsenal have conceded 0.63 goals per game recently and have kept five clean sheets in eight, while Liverpool concede 1.0 and have four clean sheets. Possession is the second gap: Arsenal average 61% against 53.3% for Liverpool.

But Arsenal have won the possession battle and still scored only 1.0 goals per away game in the league. Liverpool average 14.9 shots with 4.5 on target, against 12.6 and 4.0 for Arsenal, so they create more.

Liverpool v Arsenal kicks off at 16:30 GMT on Sunday 1 November at Anfield. A UK broadcaster has not been confirmed yet for this fixture, and this page will be updated closer to kick-off. Highlights will follow on Match of the Day.

The draw is the angle. Five of the last 10 meetings ended level, and these teams' league games have produced 1-1 type outcomes more often than any other. Wirtz is Liverpool's main creator, so he carries the anytime scorer pick. The bet builder backs the home side not to lose, a low-scoring game and Wirtz to score.