Iran v New Zealand prediction, lineups & tips: Group G opener at SoFi Stadium

Iran arrive at SoFi Stadium for their FIFA World Cup 2026 opener carrying the weight of seven previous group-stage exits, and a week of off-pitch chaos that would have derailed most squads before a ball had been kicked. Coach Amir Ghalenoei's side trained in Turkey, based their camp in Tijuana to avoid US visa complications, and flew into Los Angeles on the same afternoon a peace deal between Washington and Tehran was announced. Now, finally, there is only football to think about.

Iran are in Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt and New Zealand. The group represents arguably the most realistic path to the knockout rounds Iran have been handed in their seven World Cup appearances, but they have squandered similar opportunities before. Ghalenoei's squad topped Asian qualifying, winning seven of ten games, with captain Mehdi Taremi netting ten goals across the campaign. Taremi, 33, is now with Olympiacos and brings 103 international appearances into this tournament, a steadying presence in an attack that will be missing its second-most prolific forward.

Sardar Azmoun, who scored 57 goals in 91 internationals, was left out of the final 26-man squad entirely after a reported government disloyalty row earlier in the year. His absence leaves a significant hole, with Ghalenoei opting for a five-man frontline that also includes Dennis Eckert, Alireza Jahanbakhsh and Mehdi Ghayedi. For Iran, this is the game they must win, Belgium await in matchday two, making a stumble against the lowest-ranked side in the group a potentially tournament-ending result.

New Zealand return to the World Cup for the first time in 16 years and are ranked 86th in the world, the lowest of any side at the 2026 tournament. They qualified through a flawless OFC campaign, beating Fiji 7-0 and New Caledonia 3-0 to claim their automatic berth. Darren Bazeley's side have since beaten Chile 4-1 in a friendly, which suggests more attacking ambition than their OFC outings indicated, but they lost seven of their remaining eight warm-up games. This is a side built for resilience and the occasional sucker punch, not sustained domination.

New Zealand's hopes rest almost entirely on the fitness of captain Chris Wood. The 34-year-old Nottingham Forest striker underwent knee surgery in December and missed the majority of the Premier League season, before returning to action at the end of March. Wood has since declared himself fully fit, telling reporters: "I'm fully back to full fitness. I've been playing games for over a month-and-a-half, so I feel good, feel up to speed." With 45 goals in 88 appearances, he is New Zealand's record scorer and the focal point of everything Bazeley builds. Marko Stamenic of Swansea City provides the midfield engine behind him, and 21-year-old defender Tyler Bindon of Nottingham Forest brings one of the more recognisable names in a largely lower-league squad.

Iran, by contrast, arrived in LA composed. In his pre-match press conference, Ghalenoei was asked repeatedly about politics and protests rather than tactics. He batted every question away. "We don't pay attention to any of the hype and anything that goes on around us," he said. Taremi added, with a touch of dry humour: "Nobody asked football-related questions." The sense, at least on the surface, is of a squad that has chosen to channel the chaos rather than be consumed by it.

International managers tend to keep their cards closer to their chest than club coaches, and Ghalenoei gave little away tactically at Sunday's press conference. Based on the form of the qualifying campaign and the 26-man squad named, a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 with Taremi as the focal point is the most likely shape for Iran. Bazeley has used a compact 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1, with Wood as the target man and Stamenic driving from deep.

Iran: Beiranvand; Yousefi, Kanani, Ezatolahi, Hajisafi; Mohebi, Ghoddos; Gholizadeh, Taremi, Ghayedi; Hosseinzadeh

New Zealand: Crocombe; T Smith, Boxall, Bindon, Cacace; Stamenic, Bell; McCowatt, Rufer, Old; Wood

Iran v New Zealand kicks off at 02:00 BST on Tuesday, 16 June at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Los Angeles. The match is live on BBC One in the UK, with a free stream on BBC iPlayer. bet365 account holders with a funded account can also stream the game live via the platform.