Ipswich v Liverpool: Preview, predicted lineups and prediction

Liverpool arrive at Portman Road looking for answers rather than points alone. Two draws in their opening two league games, against Nottingham Forest and Newcastle, have left Liverpool without a win to open the campaign, a rare stumble for a club that finished top four last term. Ipswich, back in the Premier League and still finding their feet, offer a different kind of test after conceding five in their last outing at Old Trafford.

The alarm bells at Anfield are not ringing loudly yet, but the underlying numbers are mixed. Liverpool have scored four goals and conceded four across their two league fixtures, an average of two each way, with an expected-goals figure of 2.37 for and 1.94 against suggesting the balance of performance data is at least in their favour even if the results have not followed.

What stands out is the control. Liverpool have averaged 65% possession and 20 shots a game in those two matches, more than double Ipswich's shot count in the same period. Two draws from two is a slow start by their own standards, but the underlying shape of the performances gives little reason to expect a third stalemate at Portman Road.

Ipswich sit on the other side of the ledger. A 2-1 home win over Sunderland was followed immediately by a 5-2 defeat at Manchester United, a result that exposed a defence conceding an average of three goals a game and shipping shots at will, with opponents managing 6.5 corners a match against them. Ipswich have scored in both their league outings and have the attacking players to trouble Liverpool, but stopping the visitors from scoring at the other end is the far bigger concern heading into this one.

Ipswich's one win and one loss from their last two paints a patchy picture, a home victory over Sunderland undone by the heaviest defeat of their season so far at Old Trafford. Liverpool's two draws look more comfortable than the results suggest once the underlying numbers are factored in, with 65% average possession and a shots tally more than double Ipswich's. Liverpool have not lost either of their last two, but have not won either of them either, and a misfiring finishing touch rather than any defensive frailty looks to be the issue that needs fixing at Portman Road.

Both sides go into round three with two league games played. Ipswich picked up three points from their win over Sunderland before the setback at Old Trafford, while Liverpool sit on two points from consecutive draws. Neither side is anywhere near the Manchester City and Arsenal pace already being set at the top of the division, both level on six points from two games, but this is exactly the kind of fixture that shapes an early-season table. A Liverpool win moves them level with Ipswich on points and restores momentum after a stuttering start, while an Ipswich win or draw would represent a significant early scalp for a promoted side still adjusting to the top flight.

Liverpool have won both of the two Premier League meetings between these clubs, with no draws recorded. The average across those two games sits at 3.5 goals, both teams have scored in one of the two fixtures, and over 2.5 goals has landed in exactly half of them. The most recent meeting finished Liverpool 4-1 Ipswich at Anfield in January 2025, following a 2-0 Liverpool win at Portman Road the previous August.

A two-game sample is thin, but the pattern is consistent: Liverpool have been comfortable in both fixtures, scoring six and conceding three across the pair. Ipswich have never taken a point off Liverpool in the Premier League. With Ipswich's defence already showing signs of leaking goals this season and Liverpool short of confidence rather than chances, the head-to-head numbers lean toward goals and another away win rather than a repeat of the 0-0 stalemates Liverpool have produced at Forest or Newcastle.

The gap in possession is the starting point. Liverpool have averaged 65% of the ball across their opening two games against Ipswich's 39%, and that has translated into a shot count more than double their opponents', 20 attempts a game to 9.5. Ipswich's expected-goals-against figure of 2.61 compared with Liverpool's expected-goals-for of 2.37 suggests the visitors should create enough to make home possession without end product count for little. Set-piece exposure matters too. Ipswich have conceded an average of 6.5 corners a game recently, more than double their own tally of 3.5, and against a Liverpool side that has scored four goals in two matches, that volume of corners conceded is a red flag.

Kick-off at Portman Road is at 20:00 BST on Friday, 4 September. Sky Sports and TNT Sports share the Premier League's live rights this season, and this fixture is shown on Sky Sports as part of its Friday night coverage.

The clearest angle in the data is goals against Ipswich's defence, which has shipped three a game on average across its last two outings, but Liverpool's own slow start to the season means value exists beyond the obvious away win too. The picks below span the result, the goals markets and the goalscorer market, with the bet builder pulling together the three legs that tell the story of this game best.