Hull City v Brentford: Preview, predicted line-ups & Premier League tips

Hull City have spent the early weeks of this Premier League season making life awkward for bigger sides without quite turning it into wins. They beat Manchester United 2-0 on the opening weekend, drew 2-2 at Chelsea and held Newcastle to a goalless draw at the MKM Stadium. Then came a run of one point from two games, a 2-2 home draw with Everton followed by a 1-0 defeat at Fulham last Saturday. Brentford arrive in seventh place, unbeaten in four of their last five league games before a 2-1 home loss to Liverpool. That puts the visitors' draw-heavy form against a Hull side that is hard to beat at home but short of goals.

Hull City sit 11th on 9 points from seven games. Across those seven, the form data shows two wins, three draws and two defeats, with 8 goals scored and 7 conceded. Their home record is the stronger half of the season: one win and two draws from three, with 4 goals for and 2 against, and two clean sheets at the MKM Stadium.

However, the underlying numbers are less comfortable. Hull have averaged 10.71 shots per game and 0.97 expected goals for, while conceding 1.49 expected goals against, so they have been allowed more than their results show. They have also failed to score in two of seven games.

Brentford are seventh on 10 points from seven games, two points behind fifth-placed Liverpool, so a win would bring the European places within touching distance. Their record of two wins, four draws and one defeat is built on goals: 13 scored, an average of 1.86 per game, and they have scored in all seven league matches.

The weakness is on the road. Brentford have drawn all three of their away league games, scoring 5 and conceding 5, and they have won neither of the two games in which they conceded first in that sequence on the supplied data's evidence of results (two of their draws finished 2-2). Their 3-0 home win over Chelsea on 18 September shows the ceiling when they are at their best.

Hull City's last seven league games read two wins, three draws and two defeats, with the wins coming against Manchester United and Coventry in August. They have taken one point from their last two games and scored in only one of them. Brentford's seven read two wins, four draws and one defeat, with 13 goals scored against 8 conceded. On the face of it, Brentford are in better shape, and the shot data backs that up: 15 shots per game and 4.14 on target, against Hull's 10.71 and 3.43. However, four of Brentford's draws came from games in which they scored at least once, which suggests they have been dropping points through defending rather than lack of creativity. Their 8 goals conceded came at an average of 1.14 per game.

Hull City are 11th on 9 points from seven games, with a goal difference of +1. They are three points clear of 18th-placed Nottingham Forest, who have played eight, so a defeat would not drag them into the bottom three on its own but would narrow the cushion. A win would lift Hull to 12 points, level with Liverpool in fifth, which shows how tight the middle of the table is.

Brentford are seventh on 10 points from seven games, with a goal difference of +5. They are two points behind Liverpool. With Brighton on 16 and Chelsea on 13 above them, a win would put Brentford on 13 points and in contention for the top five. A draw, their fourth away from home, would keep them in the pack.

The supplied history covers eight meetings, all in the Championship between 2017 and 2020. Hull City won four, Brentford won two and two were drawn, for an average of 3.38 goals per meeting. Both teams scored in five of the eight (63%), while three of the eight went over 2.5 goals (38%). The last meeting was at the KCOM Stadium on 1 February 2020, where Brentford won 5-1.

The record is useful mainly for its goals profile and is a poor guide to the result. The clubs have not met in the league for more than six years, and both squads have changed. The high average comes from a few heavy results, including two 5-1 Brentford wins, while the over 2.5 rate of 38% is lower than the average suggests. That points to a game that could be decided by one goal, and it fits Hull's season data, in which none of their seven league games has featured a Hull side scoring more than two.

The biggest gap is in chance creation. Brentford average 1.69 expected goals for and 15 shots per game over their last seven, against 0.97 and 10.71 for Hull, a difference of roughly 0.7 xG per match. Possession tells the same story, with Brentford at 44.7% and Hull at 31.3%.

Set-pieces are the second gap. Hull concede 6.57 corners per game and win 3.71, while Brentford concede 5.14 and win 3.86. If Hull sit deep, as their 5-4-1 shape suggests, Brentford could build up sustained pressure and corner volume. Hull's counter-point is defensive record at home, where they have conceded only 2 goals in three league games, so Brentford's xG advantage will have to turn into actual goals against a compact block.

Kick-off at the MKM Stadium is 2pm GMT on Sunday 25 October, after the clocks go back that morning. A UK broadcaster has not been confirmed for this fixture yet, although Sky Sports is showing selected Premier League games on Sundays. This page will be updated closer to kick-off once the channel is confirmed.

The strongest angle is the gap in chance quality, with Brentford's 1.69 xG per game against Hull's 0.97 in the last seven league matches. bet365 have Brentford at 7/10, a price that is short but supported by the numbers, and the goals markets look more interesting, since Brentford have scored in every league game this season and Hull have conceded in four of seven. The picks below lean on a narrow away win in a game with goals at both ends.