Germany v Paraguay prediction: Nagelsmann's side to make knockout stage count

Julian Nagelsmann arrived at his pre-match press conference on Saturday insisting he has nothing to prove, which, given the scrutiny he has faced since Germany's 2-1 defeat to Ecuador, is precisely the sort of statement that suggests he knows he has something to prove. The four-time world champions qualified from Group E with a game to spare, but that final-day stumble left a residue of doubt around a side that has not survived a World Cup knockout round since 2014. Now, on Monday evening in Foxborough, Massachusetts, they face Paraguay in the Round of 32 of the FIFA World Cup 2026, their first knockout fixture in twelve years.

Germany topped Group E with two wins from their opening two fixtures, including a 7-1 dismantling of Curaçao and a 2-1 victory over Ivory Coast. They averaged 3.33 goals per game across those three group outings, generated an average xG of 2.25 per match, and dominated possession at 62% on average. The Ecuador defeat was a blip in output terms, Germany still mustered 18 shots, but it was enough to confirm that Nagelsmann's backline remains porous under pressure. They kept no clean sheets in the group stage and conceded four goals in three matches.

Nagelsmann, speaking to reporters on Sunday, said: "It is only about the team and success. To bring onto the pitch the good atmosphere we have as a group. I don't feel I have to prove anything apart to help my players and prepare them for the game."

Paraguay's path here was rather less convincing. They lost 4-1 to the United States on matchday one, beat Turkey 1-0, then drew 0-0 with Australia to scrape through as one of the five best third-placed teams in the group stage. Their average xG across three games was just 0.37. They attempted an average of 7.67 shots per match, less than half of Germany's 17.67, and managed just 1.67 on target per game. Midfielder Diego Gómez is suspended after picking up two yellow cards in the group stage, which removes one of their more combative options from the midfield. What Paraguay do have is defensive organisation: they kept clean sheets in two of their three games, sat deep in a 4-4-2 block, and will look to spring Julio Enciso and Miguel Almiron on the counter. Rudi Völler, Germany's director of professional football, acknowledged the stakes at Saturday's press conference: "Now is when the World Cup really gets going. We want to deliver a really strong performance and reach the next round."

Nagelsmann has been pressed repeatedly on the Ecuador result, but the broader tournament picture is this: Germany have beaten every top-tier opponent they have faced at this World Cup and have the attacking firepower, through Florian Wirtz, Jamal Musiala and Leroy Sane, to break down a deep-lying defence if they commit to the press and sustain their tempo. Paraguay will cause discomfort if Germany switch off, as they did in Quito, but the gulf in quality is substantial enough that a Germany win looks the most likely outcome.

Germany v Paraguay kicks off at 21:30 BST on Monday, 29 June 2026. The match is broadcast in the UK on ITV and ITVX, which hold UK rights to the 2026 FIFA World Cup alongside the BBC. Check the ITV website and ITVX app for the live stream.