Genoa v AC Milan: Preview, predicted line-ups & team news

AC Milan's build-up to this fixture has been noisier than its football. Milan's Curva Sud has announced a protest, with supporters threatening to visit the Aquarium of Genoa if they cannot get into the Stadio Luigi Ferraris, so the away end may be thinner than usual on Sunday afternoon. On the pitch, the visitors arrive after a 3-1 home win over Inter on 31 October, followed three days later by a 4-2 home defeat to Bologna. Genoa have their own momentum. De Rossi's side beat Venezia, Juventus and Lecce in their last three league games, a run that lifted them from the bottom half of the form table into 11th. Genoa still have not beaten Milan in ten attempts, a record this run will be tested against.

Genoa's last-ten record reads four wins, one draw and five defeats, but the shape of it matters. The five defeats all came between 22 August and 17 October, including 4-1 against Como and 2-0 against Napoli at home. Since then, the form data shows three straight wins (1-0 v Venezia, 2-0 v Juventus, 2-1 at Lecce) and four from five overall.

The underlying numbers are less convincing than the results. Genoa average 1.0 goals a game and a similarly modest expected goals figure across those ten fixtures, with 44.8% possession and 2.9 shots on target. They have scored two or fewer in every one of their ten league games this season, and they have conceded 14, so the margin for error against a side that has scored in every league match is thin. Their home record of three wins, one draw and two defeats from six is respectable.

Milan sit fifth on 21 points from ten games and have lost only once, the 4-2 defeat to Bologna. Their last ten contain six wins and three draws, with 21 goals scored and the club failing to score in none of the ten. Possession averages 59.3% and shots on target 4.4 a game, both clear of Genoa.

The concern is defensive. Goal reports that Pavlovic, Gabbia and Tomori are all unavailable for the trip, leaving the visitors short at centre-back. Milan have conceded 12 in ten, and five of those have come in the final 15 minutes (41.67% of their goals against), so Genoa's late pressure could matter. Away from home, though, Milan have two wins and three draws from five and have not lost.

Milan's last ten league results show six wins, three draws and one defeat, against four wins, one draw and five defeats for Genoa. On the surface the home side have the better recent run, with three wins from their last three, while Milan have taken 7 points from their last 4 of five (W, L, W, W, D by results). However, Genoa's wins came against Venezia (19th), Juventus and Lecce (14th), and their modest expected goals for suggests the results flatter them slightly. Milan's expected goals for and 1.19 against give them the stronger underlying profile over the ten games.

Milan are fifth on 21 points from 10 games, two behind fourth-placed Como on 23 and eight clear of Genoa. Their position currently carries a Europa League league stage place. A win would take them to 24 and put them level with third-placed Roma, though other results on the weekend will shift that.

Genoa are 11th on 13 points from 10, level with Torino and Cagliari, seven points behind sixth-placed Frosinone and 6 clear of 18th-placed Monza (7 points). A home win would lift them to 16 and into the top half, ahead of Juventus's 17 only on goal difference of tie-break arithmetic. A defeat would leave them exposed to a cluster of teams on 13 points below them.

Milan have won seven of the last ten meetings, three have been drawn and Genoa have not won any. The ten games have produced 2.7 goals on average, with both teams scoring in six (60%) and over 2.5 goals in six (60%). The last meeting was a 2-1 Milan win at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris on 17 May 2026, and Milan also won 2-1 there on 5 May 2025.

The pattern is consistent enough to lean on, though not blindly. Genoa have scored in six of the ten meetings, which supports the BTTS rate, and the goals line sits right on the average. But Genoa's own season data cuts the other way on totals: none of their ten league games this season have gone over the line in their own scoring, and four of their last ten have had three or more goals in total. Milan's six of ten over the line is the stronger indicator, so the Over lean rests on Milan's attack, not on Genoa's.

The biggest gap is in chance creation. Milan lead on expected goals and average 4.4 shots on target over their last ten, against 2.9 for Genoa, which suggests Genoa will have to defend for long spells. Possession tells the same story, 59.3% to 44.8%.

Corners lean the other way. Genoa average 4.1 corners for and concede 5.1, while Milan take 3.0 and concede 3.8, so Genoa's set-piece volume could be a route back into the game. Milan's reduced centre-back options make that the area where an upset is most likely to come from.

Genoa are expected to keep the 3-4-2-1 they used against Lecce. Milan's selection is more constrained: with Pavlovic reported out, Terracciano is the likely replacement in a back four, with the 4-4-1-1 used against Inter otherwise retained.

Genoa: Bijlow; Marcandalli, Østigård, Vásquez; Ellertsson, Frendrup, Wiafe, Traorè; Messias, El Shaarawy; Osmajić

AC Milan: Maignan; Gila, De Winter, Pavlović, Bocoum; Moreira, Musah, Modrić, Pulišić; Rabiot; Ramos

Genoa v AC Milan kicks off at 14:00 GMT on Sunday 8 November at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. It is live on DAZN.

The strongest angle is Milan's attacking output against a Genoa side that concedes 1.4 goals a game. Milan have scored in all ten league games and Genoa have conceded in eight of ten, which supports both the away win and a goal for each side. The totals pick carries more risk, because Genoa's games have been low-scoring this season, but the H2H record and Milan's 21 goals offset that.