Everton v Manchester United: Prediction, lineups and betting tips

This fixture has developed a strange habit of punishing whoever is hosting it. The home side has won just once in the last 10 meetings between Everton and Manchester United, with United winning seven and two drawn. Manchester United won 1-0 at Hill Dickinson Stadium in February, the last time these two met, but the return fixture at Old Trafford back in November 2025 went the other way, Everton winning 1-0 there. Whoever fancies backing the run to continue again this weekend knows exactly which way to look.

That record sits awkwardly alongside a promising start to the season for D. Moyes' side. Everton go into this one unbeaten, having beaten Crystal Palace 2-0 at home before drawing 1-1 away at Bournemouth. Both results have come with defensive control that was often missing last season: a clean sheet against Palace and only a single goal conceded across the two matches. The underlying numbers back it up. Everton have averaged 1.5 goals for and just 0.5 against across those two games, though an expected-goals-against figure of 2.06 per match suggests some of that has been down to fortune and goalkeeping rather than a watertight system.

The supporters at Hill Dickinson have had little to cheer against United down the years, but a side sitting on four points from two games, unbeaten and with a settled back four, will fancy this as the moment to change that.

Manchester United arrive with form that looks stronger on paper than it has felt in practice. A 5-2 win over Ipswich was followed by a 2-0 defeat at Hull City, results that leave United on three points from two games and already exposed to sides who can hurt them in behind. The 5-2 scoreline flattered a defence that has now shipped four goals in two matches, and the absences in midfield are starting to bite.

That inconsistency has not stopped United scoring freely going forward. An average of 3.19 expected goals per game and 27 shots per match in their opening two fixtures points to an attack finding its rhythm even while the results fluctuate. Everton's defence, for all its early promise, has not yet faced anything like that volume of shots.

Everton go into this one unbeaten with a win and a draw from their opening two fixtures, a record built on defensive solidity rather than fireworks. Manchester United sit on one win and one loss, having conceded four goals in two matches despite scoring five themselves. On raw results Everton have the healthier recent record, but United's underlying numbers, an average of 3.19 xG created per game against Everton's 1.48, suggest the visitors carry the greater attacking threat even when the scoreline says otherwise.

Two games into the new season, Everton sit on four points courtesy of a win and a draw, with a goal difference of plus two. Manchester United have three points from their two matches, a win and a defeat, and a goal difference of plus one after their high-scoring win over Ipswich was offset by the loss at Hull City. It is early enough in the campaign that neither result will define the season on its own, but a home win over United would be a statement of intent for Moyes' side as they try to establish themselves in the top half, while another slip for United would extend the sense that this United side remains a work in progress defensively.

Manchester United have the numerical edge in this fixture historically, even if the pattern is unusual. Of the last 10 meetings, the home side has won only once, United have won seven and two have been drawn, with an average of 2.8 goals per game, a 40% both-teams-to-score rate and 60% of meetings going over 2.5 goals. The last meeting, in February this year, finished 1-0 to United at this very ground, though Everton won the corresponding away fixture at Old Trafford the previous November by the same scoreline.

That pattern, of the away side generally getting the better of this fixture whichever team is travelling, is unusual and hard to explain away as coincidence at this point. It suggests the goals market is worth respecting again here. Everton's home form has improved this season, but United's superior expected-goals numbers point towards another away win, with the BTTS and over 2.5 markets both carrying some weight given six of the last 10 meetings have gone that way.

The gap in possession is the most striking number here. Manchester United have averaged 66% of the ball in their opening two games against Everton's 41.5%, and translate that dominance into 27 shots and 8 on target per game compared to Everton's 14.5 and 6. Everton's route back into this will likely have to come from restricting United's service into the final third and being efficient with the ball they do have, in the way they were against Crystal Palace, rather than trying to match United possession for possession.

Kick-off is at 14:00 BST on Sunday 6 September. A UK broadcaster has not been confirmed for this fixture at the time of writing, so check back closer to kick-off for the latest broadcast details.

The history between these two clubs leans heavily towards United and the underlying numbers this season back that up, particularly United's shot volume and expected-goals output against an Everton side yet to be properly tested defensively. The goals markets carry weight too, with six of the last 10 meetings going over 2.5 and United's own games averaging 4.5 goals combined so far this term.