Everton v Coventry: Preview, predicted line-ups and team news

Everton have spent the autumn refusing to lose and refusing to win. Four draws and two defeats in nine league games had left them stuck in the middle until Monday night, when a 1-0 win at Newcastle took them to 13 points and seventh in the table.

They now host a Coventry side who are 16th and have lost six of their nine. The visitors did beat Sunderland 3-1 last Saturday, but that was only their third win of the season.

It is a Friday night kick-off at Hill Dickinson Stadium, and the home side have the better record, the sturdier defence and the more settled team.

Everton's record reads W3 D4 L2 from nine. The 1-0 win at Newcastle on 2 November followed back-to-back defeats to Chelsea (2-0 at home) and Arsenal (2-0 away), and came after a 2-2 draw on the road.

The defence is the foundation. Everton have conceded nine goals in nine games, an average of 1.0 per match, and four of those games ended with a clean sheet. At home they have won two, drawn one and lost one, scoring five and conceding four.

Goals are harder to come by. Everton have scored nine all season, and none of their nine league games has produced more than two for them. Their recent-form xG of 1.16 per game explains why.

Coventry sit 16th on nine points with a goal difference of minus seven. They are only two points clear of 18th-placed Crystal Palace, so this is a game they cannot afford to treat as a free hit.

Their season has been defined by two extremes. A 4-1 win over Newcastle on 12 October and the 3-1 win over Sunderland sit alongside a 5-0 home defeat to Brighton and a 3-1 loss at Tottenham. They have conceded 16 goals, 1.8 per game, and have lost three of four on the road, scoring only two away goals all season.

Everton's last nine league games read three wins, four draws and two defeats. Coventry's read three wins and six defeats. The gap is clear on paper, but Everton's wins have all been narrow: 2-0 against Palace, 1-0 against Ipswich and 1-0 at Newcastle. Coventry's three wins have come by an aggregate of eight goals to two, so they can hurt a side when it goes right for them. The trouble is that it has gone right only three times, and Everton have lost only twice in nine.

Everton are seventh on 13 points from nine games. They are one point behind sixth-placed Brentford and two ahead of Bournemouth and Tottenham, who all have 12. A win would lift them into the top six at least temporarily, and a defeat would drop them back into a tight pack.

Coventry are 16th on 9 points from nine games, with Manchester United and Crystal Palace on 7 behind them. Palace occupy the last of the bottom-three spots above Nottingham Forest and Sunderland, so a defeat would shrink the visitors' cushion to a single point in the worst case.

The supplied head-to-head record contains one meeting: a friendly on 30 July 2024, which Coventry won 3-0 at the Coventry Building Society Arena. It produced three goals, no BTTS and an over 2.5 result, but it was a pre-season run-out and tells us almost nothing about this fixture.

The better guide is each side's current numbers. Everton have gone over 2.5 goals in none of their nine league games, while Coventry have had five of nine go over. Coventry's overs come from their own defending, with 16 conceded. Away from home they have scored two goals in four games, so the leaning is towards a low-scoring home win and a clean sheet for Everton.

The biggest gap is at the back. Everton's recent-form xG against is 1.59 per game, higher than their actual 1.0 goals conceded, so they have been fortunate at times. Coventry's is lower than their actual 1.78, and they have no such cushion.

The second gap is the ball. Everton average 47.3% possession and 13.2 shots per game, with 4.7 on target. Coventry average 37.8% possession, 10.9 shots and 3.2 on target, and an xG of 0.74 per game says they struggle to create. Everton also win more corners, 4.9 against 3.8, so they should have the territory.

Everton have used a 4-2-3-1 in eight of their nine league games and will almost certainly stick with it. George is a doubt, so the attacking midfield positions are the main selection question. Coventry have used a 4-2-3-1 five times and a 3-4-2-1 three times, and a spate of defensive doubts could tip them towards the back four.

Everton: Pickford; O'Brien, Tarkowski, Keane, Mykolenko; Garner, Dewsbury-Hall; Dibling, Alcaraz, Armstrong; Barry

Coventry: Wilson; Kesler-Hayden, van Ewijk, Dasilva, Bidwell; Torp, Onyeka; Tchaouna, Rudoni, Mason-Clark; Awoniyi

The game kicks off at 8pm GMT on Friday 6 November. Premier League rights in the UK sit with Sky Sports and TNT Sports, and the game is shown on Sky Sports where selected. We have not been able to confirm the exact channel, and this page will be updated if that changes.

The value in this game is in the goals market. Everton have not had an over 2.5 game all season, and Coventry have scored two goals in four away games. That points to a narrow home win with a clean sheet, and the main angle is a low-scoring Everton victory.