Malaga v Espanyol prediction: La Liga lineups, form and best bets

There is a particular kind of gloom that settles over a club when the goals simply stop coming, and Malaga are deep in it.

They have not won a league match in their last seven outings, a run that has brought three draws, four defeats, and precisely three goals scored across the lot. Espanyol arrive at La Rosaleda with troubles of their own, leaking goals for fun and losing four of their last seven, but they have at least kept scoring, finding the net in every single one of those matches. On paper this is two struggling sides meeting in mutual need of a lift. In practice, only one of them still looks capable of actually putting the ball in the net.

Malaga's numbers make for grim reading. Across their last seven matches they have managed an average of just 0.43 goals per game, failed to score altogether in four of them, and sit on an expected goals average of only 0.84 per match, well below what they are conceding at the other end.

That defensive side of the ledger is just as troubling. Malaga have shipped an average of 1.71 goals per match in that run, with an expected goals against figure of 1.66, and have kept only one clean sheet in seven attempts. A 3-1 home defeat to Villarreal and a 4-0 thumping away at Real Madrid either side of a run of draws against Celta Vigo, Levante and Deportivo La Coruna tell the story of a side that can scrap for a point but rarely looks like winning outright. The draw at home to Levante in particular, a goalless stalemate, summed up an attack that simply cannot find a cutting edge at the moment.

Espanyol's form guide reads better on the surface, two wins and a draw to go with four defeats in their last seven, but the underlying picture is scratchier than the result column suggests. They have shipped exactly as many goals as they have scored across that run, ten each, and have now lost their last two in a row, including a 3-1 home defeat to Elche.

What keeps Espanyol in this conversation is that they do not go missing at the other end. They have failed to score in precisely none of their last seven matches, a rare case of consistency from a side whose results have otherwise been all over the place, and over 2.5 goals has landed in five of those seven games. If this fixture is going to be decided by which side still has an attacking pulse, that is Espanyol's game to win.

Malaga's form line of zero wins, three draws and four defeats across their last seven is as bleak as it looks, a side that cannot buy a goal and has been dragged into trouble by a leaky defence conceding 1.71 a game.

Espanyol's two wins, one draw and four defeats look only marginally healthier, but the detail matters here: they have not gone without scoring once in that run, while Malaga have blanked four times. Surface form says both sides are struggling. The underlying numbers say Espanyol are struggling with better players at their disposal going forward.

Neither Malaga nor Espanyol are anywhere near the conversation at the top of the division, where Barcelona have won all seven of their league games this season for 21 points and Atletico Madrid sit second on 16. That gap alone tells you what is and is not at stake on Friday night.

For two sides scrapping away from that picture, a result here is about arresting a slide rather than chasing anything grander. A fourth league game without a win would deepen the sense of alarm building around Malaga's attack, while another defeat for Espanyol would extend a losing run that already stands at two matches on the bounce. Neither side can afford to let this one get away from them.

History offers Malaga little comfort here. Of the nine meetings between these two sides on record, Malaga have won precisely none, drawing two and losing the other seven, with an average of 2.67 goals per meeting and both teams scoring in a third of those games. The last meeting, back on 2 May 2021 in the second tier, ended 3-0 to Espanyol at the RCDE Stadium, and over 2.5 goals has landed in just over half of the recorded meetings between the pair.

That lopsided record stretches back across several promotion-and-relegation cycles for both clubs, so it is fair to treat it as background colour rather than a hard guide to Friday night. What it does support is the idea that backing Espanyol with some conviction here is not against the grain of this rivalry, and a tight, low-scoring edge for the visitors would not be out of character given the history. The goals markets lean toward a game with goals in it rather than a repeat of the 3-0 scoreline, given the shape of both sides' recent form.

The clearest gap between these two sides is in attacking quality. Espanyol are averaging 13.57 shots and 3.86 shots on target per game compared to Malaga's 10 shots and just 2 on target, a significant difference in how often each side is actually troubling the goalkeeper.

Oddly, it is Malaga who come out ahead on one attacking metric: they are averaging 5.43 corners won per game against Espanyol's 2.14, a sign that whatever else is going wrong for the hosts, they are at least putting the ball into the final third with some regularity. The problem, as the shots numbers confirm, is what happens once it gets there.

With Lobete and Ochoa both missing through injury and Salinas no longer part of the squad, the home side's options are thinner than they would like, and a back-to-basics approach looks the likely route back to form. Espanyol should field a settled look with few selection puzzles.

Malaga: Herrero; Montero, Calero, Murillo, Rafita; Brašanac, Muñoz, Lorenzo; Chupe, Niño Heredia

Espanyol: Dmitrović; Hartman, Núñez, Rubio, Lopez; Lozano, Expósito, Milla; Hernandez, Ngonge.

Kick-off at La Rosaleda is at 20:00 BST on Friday 9 October. Coverage in the UK is shown on Premier Sports where selected, the competition's UK rights holder for the season, so check their channel listings for confirmation closer to kick-off.

The clearest value sits with Espanyol's superior attacking numbers against a Malaga side that has gone four games without scoring in their last seven. The goals markets look live too, with Espanyol's over 2.5 rate of five from seven pointing toward an open game rather than another grind.