England v Argentina prediction, lineups & World Cup 2026 semi-final tips

England reach their first FIFA World Cup 2026 semi-final having not lost a single game at the tournament, and on Wednesday night they face the sternest test yet, a reigning world champion Argentina side built around a Lionel Messi who, at 38, is refusing to read the retirement script. Six goals have been scored against Gareth Southgate's side across the group stage and knockout rounds; Argentina have conceded exactly the same number, though their attacking output has been considerably more emphatic.

For England, this is the moment the tournament has been pointing towards all along.

Southgate's side have grown steadily through the draw. They opened with a 4-2 win over Croatia, stumbled to a 0-0 draw with Ghana, then won three on the bounce against Panama (2-0), Congo DR (2-1) and, most impressively, Mexico (3-2) and Norway (2-1) in the knockout rounds. The last-16 and quarter-final wins were both away fixtures, which matters, England have not conceded a single goal in either of those away games.

The challenge is Southgate's habit of caution. His side average 2.17 goals per game in the tournament, and their expected goals figure of 1.79 per match is a shade below their actual output, suggesting the goals have come at slightly above expectation. Argentina sit above that benchmark in every column.

Argentina have swept through their half of the draw without a defeat, six wins from six, 17 goals scored, only six conceded. Lionel Scaloni has used a 4-4-2 in all three group-stage fixtures and stuck with it through the knockouts. Messi, leading from the front at 38, has scored eight goals in six appearances at this World Cup alone, landing 18 of his 28 total shots on target. Two penalties were missed, both by Messi, but 8 goals from open play and set pieces more than compensate.

They dispatched Switzerland 3-1 in their quarter-final, their fourth consecutive game in which they have scored three. Argentina average 2.83 goals per game in the tournament, an xG of 2.15 per match, and have kept two clean sheets.

The H2H between these sides at World Cups is a part of football folklore. From the Hand of God in 1986 to the 1998 last-16 thriller to the Beckham red card, encounters between England and Argentina at major tournaments carry a weight that most matches never approach. There is no recent World Cup H2H data in the API feed for this fixture, which reflects how rarely these two sides have been drawn together in recent editions. They meet here at the semi-final stage for the first time in either nation's history.

Southgate has used a 4-2-3-1 in three of his four tournament fixtures (the fourth was a 4-1-4-1). Expect that to be his default against Argentina, with the two holding midfielders tasked with screening a back four that will need to be at its sharpest against Messi and his strike partner. Scaloni will line up in his familiar 4-4-2, with Messi operating in the right channel in behind the centre-forward.

England (4-2-3-1): Flaherty; Alexander-Arnold, Guehi, Stones, Trippier; Rice, Gallagher; Saka, Bellingham, Foden; Kane

Argentina (4-4-2): Martinez; Montiel, Romero, Lisandro Martinez, Acuna; Di Maria, De Paul, Mac Allister, Messi; Alvarez, Lautaro Martinez

England v Argentina kicks off at 20:00 BST on Wednesday 15 July. The match is part of the BBC and ITV's shared FIFA World Cup 2026 coverage in the UK, with both broadcasters holding rights to the tournament. Check BBC iPlayer and ITVX for the live stream. Confirmation of which broadcaster holds the specific semi-final slot should be verified via the BBC Sport or ITV Sport schedules closer to kick-off.