Egypt v Iran prediction, lineups & World Cup 2026 tips: Pharaohs on the verge of history
Egypt need only a draw to advance from Group G at the FIFA World Cup 2026. Iran need a win. Something has to give at Lumen Field, here are our tips, predicted lineups and match preview.
Egypt stand one result away from reaching the knockout rounds of the FIFA World Cup 2026 for the first time in their history. A draw at Lumen Field in Seattle on Saturday morning will put the Pharaohs through from Group G. For Iran, only a win will do, and even then they need Belgium to slip up against New Zealand simultaneously. It is the most consequential 90 minutes either nation has played at a World Cup in a generation.
Egypt
1–1
Full time
Iran
Sat 27 Jun, 04:00•Lumen Field
Egypt arrived in North America with modest expectations, but Hossam Hassan's side have exceeded them in the opening two games. A 1-1 draw with Belgium on matchday one was followed by a 3-1 win over New Zealand, the first World Cup victory in Egypt's history since their debut in 1934. Mohamed Salah, playing in what is expected to be his last World Cup, scored in the win over New Zealand. He is now two goals away from equalling Hassan's national record of 69 international goals. Egypt averaged 2.0 goals per game across their two Group G matches and have not failed to score once in this campaign.
Iran's situation is more complicated on and off the pitch. Coach Amir Ghalenoei's side drew both of their group games, 2-2 with New Zealand and 0-0 with Belgium, and go into this match on two points. Their attacking numbers tell a stark story: they averaged just 1.0 goal per game in the group stage, mustered an average of 12 shots per match, and failed to score in one of their two fixtures. Defensively, they are not without merit, the Belgium clean sheet showed organisation, but their xG against of 1.52 per game suggests they have ridden some luck at the back.
The off-pitch backdrop is impossible to ignore. For the first two matches, US authorities restricted Iran to arriving just one day before each game, with Ghalenoei publicly and repeatedly calling out the impact on his squad's recovery and preparation. "The conditions have been extremely hard for us," he said after the 0-0 draw with Belgium. The US has now eased those restrictions for the Seattle fixture, allowing Iran to arrive two days beforehand, still short of the acclimatisation time the coach had requested, given the 1,930-kilometre journey from their base camp in Tijuana.
Manager quotes
Hassan addressed the travel restrictions controversy at his pre-match press conference on Thursday, invoking FIFA's fair play values. "Respect and fair play mean everyone should respect everyone, and for there to be fairness between everyone. That's why I wish luck to all of us," the Egypt boss said. "The Iranian team is one of the teams I respect very much."
Ghalenoei, for his part, made clear the distractions would not derail his squad's focus. "We are going to set all of that aside. We are going to overcome all of these challenges," he told reporters. He also paid his opponent a compliment: "We believe that the Egyptian team is a highly organised, well-planned team. In addition to Salah, they have many great and known players."
Line-ups
Egypt4-2-3-1
23GMostafa Shobeir
3DMohamed Hany
6DMohamed Abdelmonem
5DRami Rabia
13DAhmed Fatouh
21MMahmoud Saber
17MMohanad Lasheen
11MMostafa Ziko
10MMohamed Salah
8MEmam Ashour
7FMahmoud Trézéguet
Manager · Hossam Hassan
Iran5-3-2
1GAlireza Beiranvand
23DRamin Rezaeian
13DHossein Kanaani
4DShoja Khalilzadeh
19DAli Nemati
5DMilad Mohammadi
14MSaman Ghoddos
21MMohammad Ghorbani
6MSaeid Ezatolahi
9FMehdi Taremi
8FMohammad Mohebi
Manager · Amir Ghalenoei
Where to watch Egypt v Iran: TV and online streams
Egypt v Iran kicks off at 04:00 BST on Saturday 27 June at Lumen Field, Seattle. The match is live on BBC Two in the UK, with free streaming available via BBC iPlayer. All 104 matches at the 2026 FIFA World Cup are broadcast free-to-air in the UK, shared between the BBC and ITV.
Stats for Egypt v Iran
Egypt v Iran is a first-ever FIFA World Cup meeting between the two nations. They last met in the 2003 AFC-OFC Challenge Cup, which Iran won 3-0.
Egypt have scored 4 goals in 2 Group G games (avg 2.0 per match), generating an xG of 1.48 per game. Iran have scored 2 goals in 2 games (avg 1.0 per match), generating an xG of 1.06 per game.
Iran have failed to score in 1 of their 2 group-stage fixtures. Egypt have scored in both games and have not kept a clean sheet, conceding 2 across the tournament.
Egypt average 16.5 shots per game in this World Cup campaign. Iran average 12. Egypt also hold an average possession advantage of 51% to Iran's 39.5%.
Headline prediction · our pick
✗ MissConfidence · medium
match result: egypt to win
Egypt are the better-organised, better-performing team at this tournament and hold a structural advantage: needing only a draw, they can afford to sit deep and absorb Iran's limited attacking threat. Hassan will not instruct his side to park the bus, a win seals top spot, but the security of that cushion means Egypt can pick their moments. Iran have averaged 3.5 shots on target per game and carry an xG for of just 1.06, figures that do not point to a team capable of unpicking a settled defensive unit. Ghalenoei's side have not won in two, and the disruption to their preparation, however partially resolved, does not disappear overnight. Egypt to win and reach the knockout rounds at their first attempt in 36 years.
Best Price31/20bet365 · score 2-0
✗ Prediction missed
TIP 01✗ Miss
Correct Score: 2-0
Egypt have scored in both games but Iran kept a clean sheet against Belgium and are unlikely to be as open as New Zealand were. A 2-0 scoreline reflects Egypt controlling the match without Iran threatening the keeper. Egypt's average of 2.0 goals per game supports the home end of the scoresheet, while Iran's failure to score in one of their two group games makes a shut-out a reasonable expectation. The 0-0 Belgium v Iran result from matchday two shows Ghalenoei's side can be difficult to break down, but Egypt's attacking quality, particularly Salah, who is chasing Hassan's national scoring record, gives Hossam Hassan's side a clear edge.
TIP 02✓ Hit
Over 2.5 Goals: Under
Iran's average of 1.0 goals per game and their xG for of 1.06 across two fixtures point firmly to a low-scoring match. Their 0-0 against Belgium showed their capacity to stay compact. Egypt have averaged 2.0 goals per game, but the group-stage permutations give Hassan reason to take fewer risks. Both teams' combined xG averages of 2.54 per game straddle the 2.5 line, but a cautious Iranian setup and Egypt's incentive to see the game out make under 2.5 the stronger play. Bet365 offer Under 2.5 Goals at a shade under 7/5.
TIP 03✗ Miss
Both Teams to Score: No
Iran failed to score in their game against Belgium and mustered only an xG of 1.06 per game across the group stage. Egypt are well-organised defensively, conceding only twice in two matches, and a structured Hassan side with the luxury of sitting on a lead is well capable of keeping Iran at bay. Iran averaging just 3.5 shots on target per game reinforces the case for a clean sheet at the other end. BTTS No at around 8/11 represents solid value given the data.
TIP 04✗ Miss
Anytime Goalscorer: Mohamed Salah
Salah is Egypt's talisman and is chasing history at this World Cup, sitting just two goals behind the all-time national scoring record held by his own manager, Hossam Hassan. He scored in the win over New Zealand and will carry Egypt's primary attacking threat against an Iran side that has only just arrived in Seattle after weeks of travel disruption. Egypt average 16.5 shots per game, and Salah's movement in behind a compact back line is the most likely source of the opening goal. Around 6/4 is workable on the Liverpool forward to get on the scoresheet.
TIP 05✓ Hit
Double Chance: Home or Draw
Egypt need only a draw to qualify as group winners, and a loss still leaves them with a reasonable chance of progressing as one of the best third-placed sides. The structural incentive is firmly on the side of Egypt not losing, while Iran, despite needing a win, have shown in both their group games that they lack the attacking firepower to consistently trouble organised defences. Egypt or Draw at around 1/5 is short, but it is the safest play in the group given the underlying data.
Build the Egypt v Iran bet
BetFootball Builder · 3 Legs✗ Miss
Home Win
✗ Miss
Match Result
31/20
Egypt have the points cushion, the superior attacking record (2.0 goals per game against Iran's 1.0) and a more rested squad. They are the anchor leg of this builder. Pairing the Egypt win with the other two legs tightens the narrative: if Egypt are winning, they are likely to be controlling possession and shots, which supports the goalscorer and under lines.
No
✗ Miss
Both Teams to Score
2/3
Iran's xG for of 1.06 per game and their one goalless performance in two matches suggest Ghalenoei's side are not likely to trouble El-Shenawy. An Egypt-win leg already implies Egypt score; BTTS No complements it by requiring Iran to stay silent. The two legs are not directly correlated, Egypt could win 1-0 or 2-0, both satisfy both legs, and the combined return is boosted materially without over-stacking the same outcome.
Mohamed Salah
✗ Miss
Anytime Goalscorer
3/2
If Egypt are winning and Iran are not scoring, someone is putting the ball in the net for the Pharaohs. Salah is the most likely candidate, with his record in this group stage and his historical motivation in Seattle. This leg draws from a different market to the other two legs, avoids correlation issues, and delivers the bulk of the combined odds uplift in the builder.
Egypt
Iran
