Ecuador v Germany prediction, lineups & tips: World Cup 2026 Group E

Ecuador's FIFA World Cup 2026 campaign has one last chance to breathe. Sebastian Beccacece's side arrive at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford on Thursday with a single point from two games and no goals scored, a record that tells its own story heading into a must-win Group E finale against the tournament's most prolific side.

Germany are already confirmed as Group E winners with six points from two games, a goal difference of plus seven, and a winning run across all competitions that now stretches to 11 matches. They beat Curaçao 7-1 on Matchday 1, then came from behind to beat Ivory Coast 2-1, Deniz Undav scoring twice off the bench, including a 94th-minute winner.

Ecuador, by contrast, have one point and are third in the group. A 1-0 defeat to Ivory Coast on June 14 was followed by a 0-0 draw against Curaçao on June 20, a result that left Beccacece's side without a goal in 180 minutes of World Cup football. They head into this fixture knowing only a win guarantees progression, though a draw could still be enough if Ivory Coast fail to beat Curaçao in the simultaneous fixture in Philadelphia.

The blunt truth for Ecuador is that their attacking output has been deeply underwhelming despite generating a high volume of attempts. They averaged 19.5 shots per game across their first two fixtures, registered an average xG of 1.92, and yet failed to score in either match. Against Curaçao alone they mustered 27 shots, kept at bay by goalkeeper Eloy Room, who made a tournament-high 15 saves.

Germany's campaign has been far more convincing. Nagelsmann's 4-2-3-1 has averaged 4.5 goals per game at this World Cup, with an xG of 3.05, underlining that most of their output has been earned rather than fortunate. Kai Havertz has two goals in the group stage, while Undav's impact from the bench has become one of the tournament's early talking points.

For Germany, the central question is how much Nagelsmann rotates with qualification already secured. He has already signalled his intent. "It will probably be a mix," the Germany head coach said ahead of the fixture.

One change is enforced. Centre-back Nico Schlotterbeck has been ruled out of the remainder of the tournament with an ankle ligament injury sustained in the Ivory Coast win. Antonio Rüdiger, who replaced him in that game, is expected to partner Jonathan Tah at the heart of the defence. Beyond that, Oliver Baumann is pushing for a start in goal ahead of Manuel Neuer, David Raum could come in at left-back, and Leon Goretzka is in line for a midfield berth. Undav, who has scored three goals as a substitute across two appearances, may finally earn a start up front.

Midfielder Nadiem Amiri made clear Germany have no intention of taking their foot off the gas. "We want to win and we'll give it everything. We'll approach it like a final," he said.

Ecuador v Germany kicks off at 21:00 BST on Thursday, 25 June 2026 at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey. In the UK, the match is televised live on BBC One, with coverage starting at 20:30 BST. UK viewers can also stream the match for free via BBC iPlayer.