Crystal Palace v Rayo Vallecano prediction, lineups & Conference League final tips

Oliver Glasner is about to take charge of Crystal Palace for the 121st and final time, and he has saved the most historic occasion for last. Wednesday's Conference League final at Leipzig's Red Bull Arena is not just Palace's first European final, it is the culmination of a two-and-a-half-year run under Glasner that has already delivered an FA Cup and a Community Shield. Midfielder Will Hughes has called on the squad to give their departing manager a proper send-off with the trophy, and Glasner himself has been unambiguous about what the night would mean. "To end this more than two-year journey with another trophy, with the first European trophy in Crystal Palace's history, that would be incredible," he told UEFA this week.

The prize on offer has an almost ironic quality. A season that began with Palace in court, appealing against their demotion from the Europa League, ends with a chance to win their first European trophy in the competition they did not want to play in. Victory would take them directly into next season's Europa League, the competition they were stripped of a year ago due to multi-club ownership rules.

Standing in their way are Rayo Vallecano, Madrid's third club and arguably the most romantic story in European football this season. Backed by a passionate working-class fanbase from the Vallecas neighbourhood, Rayo have reached their first major final in only their second season of continental competition. Their route here was not straightforward, a fan boycott and a simmering feud between supporters and the club president have coloured the campaign, yet Íñigo Pérez's side arrive in Leipzig having won nine of their last ten matches in all competitions. Rayo sporting director David Cobeno acknowledged the gap in resources this week, telling AS: "They're the toughest team in the competition and favourites to win the title. It would have been difficult to knock them out over two legs, but anything can happen in a final. We can win it, and we're going for it."

Palace's path to Leipzig was built on collective resilience rather than any single individual, but Ismaïla Sarr has been the standout performer. The Senegal winger leads the competition's scoring charts with nine goals across 13 appearances, netting in each leg of the round of 16 against AEK Larnaca, the quarter-final against Fiorentina, and the semi-final against Shakhtar Donetsk. His xG numbers in the recent-form aggregate underline just how dangerous Palace are going forward: 2.19 xG per game across their last ten Conference League fixtures, against a miserly 0.72 against. They have kept clean sheets in four of those ten games and conceded just 0.8 goals per match in the competition all season.

Rayo's route was more of a grind. They beat Samsunspor over two legs in the last 16, edged past AEK Athens 4-3 on aggregate in the quarter-finals, with Isi Palazón scoring twice, before seeing off Strasbourg 2-0 on aggregate in the semis, with Brazilian striker Alemão scoring the only goal in each leg. Pérez described that Strasbourg performance as "the best match played since I've had the good fortune to manage Rayo." They are not here by accident. Their 1.9 average goals per game in the competition and a back four that has conceded just 0.9 per game away from home make them a side capable of hurting Palace.

Glasner has rotated heavily this season, using 16 Conference League games to manage a squad playing what will be 60 matches in total. For the final, there is no rotation imperative, this is it. He confirmed in Leipzig on Tuesday that the squad has trained well and that he will pick his strongest available XI. His message to the players was characteristically direct: "There is a reason why we play this final. And it's why we've done many things really well."

Pérez faces no meaningful rotation dilemma either, though the fitness of winger Ilias Akhomach, who picked up an injury in the warm-up before the Strasbourg second leg, remains uncertain. The positive news for Rayo is that Álvaro García is fit and available after missing the semi-final, while Palazón comes in fresh after sitting out Rayo's final La Liga fixtures through suspension. Both could start.

Glasner, asked in Leipzig on Tuesday about the experience he is drawing on to prepare his players for the occasion, said: "When you play a final, it can be that you want too much, a special performance, doing so well, and this must be perfect, and this must be perfect, and then you're not free, but you need to be free." He has been here before, winning the Europa League with Eintracht Frankfurt in 2021-22, and that experience shapes how he is handling the week. The players, by his own account, look ready: "Fantastic training. This being focused, but also enjoying. It's always this balance."

Iñigo Pérez, meanwhile, has spoken throughout the week about Rayo playing with the same identity that has carried them here. "We hope that our story has a happy ending," the 38-year-old told UEFA. Alemão, the semi-final hero, was equally direct: "The favourite is Crystal Palace, but anything can happen in a final. I try to live it to the fullest, give nothing away, and show that we want it more than they do."

Glasner is expected to field his strongest available XI in a 3-4-3 shape, the formation used in 12 of his 16 Conference League matches. Wharton should start if fully fit, with Kamada alongside him. Sarr leads the attack in a front three with Pino and Mateta. Richards remains a doubt at centre-back; Canvot is likely to slot in if he does not make it.

Rayo line up in either a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-3-3. Batalla starts in goal. Palazón and García are expected back in the XI with Alemão leading the line.

Crystal Palace: Henderson; Clyne, Lacroix, Canvot; Muñoz, Wharton, Kamada, Mitchell; Sarr, Pino; Mateta

Rayo Vallecano: Batalla; Ratiu, Lejeune, Ciss, Chavarria; Valentin, Lopez; Palazon, Garcia, De Frutos; Alemao

Crystal Palace v Rayo Vallecano kicks off at 20:00 BST on Wednesday 27 May at Leipzig's Red Bull Arena. The match is live in the United Kingdom on TNT Sports 1 and HBO Max, with pre-match coverage beginning at 18:30 BST. You can subscribe to TNT Sports via HBO Max, BT, EE, Sky, and Virgin Media. If level after 90 minutes, the tie goes to extra time and, if required, a penalty shootout.