Croatia v Ghana prediction, lineups & tips: World Cup 2026 Group L decider

Croatia's place at the FIFA World Cup 2026 in North America now hinges on 90 minutes at Lincoln Financial Field. Zlatko Dalic's side go into Saturday's Group L finale knowing that only a win guarantees progression to the round of 32. A draw or defeat and they are entirely dependent on other results, a precarious position for a nation that reached the final in 2018 and finished third in 2022.

The group picture is stark. Ghana sit second on four points, a draw in Philadelphia seals their place in the last 32 regardless of what England do against Panama in New Jersey. Croatia are third on three points, one behind the Black Stars. They beat Panama 1-0 on Ante Budimir's 54th-minute finish in their second game, but that came after a 4-2 opening defeat to England that exposed every concern about this ageing squad's defensive frailty.

Dalic acknowledged as much after the England loss. "We must approach the game as favourites and be brave," he said ahead of the Panama fixture, admitting his side had gifted England too much and made their own job harder. The word "brave" carries a different weight now: Croatia must go after a Ghana side managed by Carlos Queiroz, one of the most experienced coaches in international football, who will not make that easy.

Queiroz set up his team to stifle England in a goalless draw on June 23, Ghana did not register a single shot on target in the first half. His plan against Croatia will be similar: sit in, absorb pressure, hit on the break through Antoine Semenyo and Iñaki Williams. Jordan Ayew, who has earned over 120 caps for the Black Stars, organises the press and does the defensive work that the stats seldom capture. A point advances Ghana automatically. Queiroz knows the maths.

Croatia's form over two World Cup games reads W1 L1, a 1-0 win over Panama, a 4-2 defeat to England. Their average xG across those two fixtures is 1.17 per game, which is respectable, but their defensive xG against sits at 1.88, suggesting England were not the only team to find ways through. They average 53% possession across the tournament, so the ball is there, the question is whether they can break down a Ghana side that has kept two clean sheets from their two group games and conceded nothing in the tournament.

Ghana's own attacking numbers are modest. They average 0.74 xG per game, scoring once from two matches. Their only goal came from a stoppage-time effort against Panama. Queiroz's system is built on not losing, not on winning handsomely. That is precisely what makes this so difficult for Croatia.

Luka Modrić marked his 200th international appearance against Panama, making him the fourth player in history to reach that figure for their country. At 38, he remains Croatia's creative heartbeat alongside Mateo Kovačić, though both have been exposed defensively at this tournament. The onus falls on Joško Gvardiol, 24, the Manchester City centre-back who is the squad's standout individual, to keep Ghana's counter-attacks at bay while his team pushes for the goal they need.

Croatia v Ghana kicks off at 10pm BST on Saturday, 27 June at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia. The match is live on ITV4 in the UK, with a free stream available on ITVX. In the United States, coverage is on FS1.