Brazil v Japan prediction, lineups & tips: Vinicius Jr the danger man in Houston

Brazil step into the FIFA World Cup 2026 knockout rounds against Japan in Houston on Monday, carrying the weight of five world titles and a 24-year wait for a sixth. Carlo Ancelotti's side topped Group C with two wins and a draw, scoring seven goals in the process, and arrive at the Round of 32 as clear favourites. What they face, though, is a Japan team that navigated a group containing the Netherlands and Sweden without losing, and whose collective organisation has been one of the stories of this tournament.

Brazil's campaign has been built almost entirely around Vinicius Jr. The Real Madrid forward has scored four goals in three games, a haul matched at this World Cup only by Lionel Messi, and earned the Player of the Match award in each of Brazil's three group fixtures. Ancelotti's 4-2-3-1 has been compact and direct, with Vinicius given licence to attack at every opportunity. The one concern coming into this game is Raphinha, who hobbled off during the 3-0 win over Scotland with a hamstring problem and has been ruled out of the remainder of the tournament. Ancelotti is also managing Neymar back to full fitness after a calf injury kept the 34-year-old out of the first two group games; he came off the bench for 14 minutes against Scotland and could have a bigger role here.

Ahead of the match, Ancelotti said: "For tomorrow's match, we need many things: mind, heart, a clear idea. We have to be prepared for everything that can happen in a knockout tie, and in a knockout tie many things can happen. The team is prepared, motivated, confident."

Japan finished second in Group E with one win, two draws and four goals scored, including a 4-0 demolition of Tunisia that offered a glimpse of their attacking threat. Hajime Moriyasu's side are organised, energetic and tactically disciplined, qualities that served them well in Qatar 2022, when they beat Germany and Spain before losing on penalties to Croatia. They go into this game, however, missing their most creative player. Takefusa Kubo has been sidelined since suffering a knee injury in the opening draw with the Netherlands, and Moriyasu confirmed on Sunday that the Real Sociedad forward will not feature against Brazil. Ko Itakura is also a doubt after going off injured before half-time in the 1-1 draw with Sweden.

Moriyasu said on Sunday: "All the players will do what they can for the team and contribute."

Brazil v Japan kicks off at 18:00 BST on Monday, 29 June 2026. In the UK, the match is broadcast live on BBC One and available to stream on BBC iPlayer. Coverage is also available via the BBC Sport website and app.