Bournemouth v Everton: Prediction, lineups and how the form guides split

Bournemouth's opening weekend brought them straight back down to earth. Andoni Iraola's side went to the Etihad Stadium and lost 2-1 to Manchester City, managing just five shots all game and conceding 2.25 expected goals. Everton, in the meantime, could not have asked for a better start under David Moyes, beating Crystal Palace 2-0 at Hill Dickinson Stadium without conceding a single shot on target. The two sides meet on the south coast with the form lines already pointing in opposite directions.

The defeat at Manchester City leaves Bournemouth without a point after game one, and they will have wanted a kinder opening fixture than a trip to the champions. They had only 34 per cent of the ball at the Etihad and averaged four shots on target, numbers that will need to improve sharply if they are to trouble an Everton side who kept a clean sheet last time out.

Bournemouth's problems are not confined to results. Five players are already missing through injury or other absence, and Iraola will have to shuffle his options at both ends of the pitch this weekend.

Everton, by contrast, arrive full of confidence. Their 2-0 win over Crystal Palace came with 42 per cent possession and 16 shots, five of them on target, and Moyes's side did not concede a single goal. It is a small sample, one game each, but Everton's opening-day numbers dwarf anything Bournemouth produced at the Etihad. A win here would give Everton back-to-back victories to start a Premier League season for the first time in years, and it would pile early pressure on Iraola just three games into his third full campaign at the Vitality Stadium.

Both sides have a perfect one-game sample to go on. Bournemouth's solitary result is a loss, Everton's is a win, and the underlying numbers back up the scoreline in each case. Bournemouth had less than a third of the ball at the Etihad and struggled to create anything of note, while Everton dominated territory and shots against a Palace side that had no answer. The form guide below is thin on data points but Everton go into this one with far more to be pleased about.

Everton sit fourth in the early table on three points, having won their opener 2-0 and with a goal difference of plus two. Bournemouth have no points to their name after one game, beaten at the Etihad in a fixture few would have expected them to win anyway. It is early enough in the season that neither result carries much long-term weight, but for Iraola a losing start at home would mean back-to-back defeats to open the campaign, a poor look with tougher fixtures still to come. For Everton, a win on the road would make it two from two and put down an early marker that last season's mid-table finish will not be repeated.

Home advantage has been decisive in this fixture historically. Of the last 10 meetings between the sides, the home team has won 7, the away team 3 and there have been no draws. The pair average 2.5 goals per game when they meet, both teams have scored in only 3 of those 10 matches and 6 have finished with over 2.5 goals. The last meeting went the way of the road side, Bournemouth winning 2-1 at Hill Dickinson Stadium in February.

The zero-draw record stands out most. This has been a fixture that produces a winner, not a stalemate, and with home advantage carrying real weight across the sample, backing the draw looks the weakest angle on the card. The low BTTS rate of 30 per cent also lines up with the way both teams have started this season, Bournemouth toothless in attack and Everton miserly at the back.

The gap in the numbers so far is stark. Everton had 16 shots to Bournemouth's five in their respective openers, and averaged 42 per cent possession against Bournemouth's 34 per cent. Bournemouth also conceded eight corners to Everton's none, a sign of how far second-best they came against Manchester City. One game apiece is not much to go on, but every one of those gaps favours the away side heading into this weekend.

Kick-off at the Vitality Stadium is 3pm BST on Saturday 29 August. As with all Saturday 3pm fixtures, the match falls under the UK broadcast blackout and will not be shown live on domestic television. Fans in the UK can follow updates through the clubs' official channels and radio commentary, with overseas viewers able to check local broadcast listings for live coverage.

The value on this card sits with Everton's price to win outright. Bournemouth's opening numbers, five shots and 34 per cent possession at the Etihad, make backing them at home a hard sell against an Everton side that has already shown more control and more end product. The bet builder below leans on that same gap, pairing the away win with a clean sheet at the other end.