Derby v Birmingham: prediction, lineups and team news

Derby's early-season wobble has turned into something more concerning. J. Eustace's side have lost four of their last six matches, including a home defeat to West Brom last weekend, and Saturday's visit of Birmingham arrives at exactly the wrong moment for a Rams side low on confidence and short at the back.

Derby sat second-bottom before kick-off, with just one win from five league games and a goal difference of minus five. They shipped three at West Ham and lost 3-0 at home to Swansea last month, and their only win of the campaign came away at Portsmouth. Eustace has been at the club since February 2025, and results like Tuesday's 1-0 home defeat to West Brom will not have eased the pressure that comes with sitting in the bottom three after seven rounds.

The underlying numbers back up the eye test. Derby are averaging just 0.83 goals a game across their last six outings while conceding 1.83, and they have failed to score in three of those matches. Only one clean sheet in six tells its own story about a defence that has been breached regularly all season.

Birmingham travel to Pride Park unbeaten in five, though four of those have been draws. C. Davies' side have shown durability rather than firepower, taking points off Wolves, Southampton and Bristol City without managing to turn any of those into three points. A narrow loss at Norwich last weekend was their first defeat in six.

A win at Derby would lift Birmingham into the top half and settle some of the frustration around a side that keeps drawing games it should be winning. Davies has been in charge since June 2024 and will know a trip to a struggling Derby is the kind of fixture his squad needs to start turning stalemates into victories.

Derby's recent form reads LDLWL, one win in five with three defeats, and they have lost four of their last six across all competitions. Birmingham's DDWDDL looks steadier on paper, one win and four draws in six, but the lack of victories means Davies' side have not built any real momentum either. The gap in the underlying numbers is starker than the results suggest: Birmingham are averaging 1.33 goals a game to Derby's 0.83, and conceding fewer too. Derby's issue is not just results, it is the manner of the losses, three defeats by two or more goals in their last six.

Derby have lost three of their five league games and sit in the relegation zone after round seven, with a goal difference of minus five doing little to suggest an imminent turnaround. Birmingham, by contrast, have lost only once in six and their unbeaten run has kept them in touching distance of the top half, even if four draws mean they have not fully capitalised on it.

For Derby, another home defeat would deepen the sense of crisis and turn up the heat on Eustace before the international break. For Birmingham, three points at Pride Park would be their first win in five and a platform to push on towards the play-off pack rather than treading water in mid-table.

Derby hold the upper hand historically, winning five of the last 10 meetings to Birmingham's two, with three draws. The average of 3.3 goals per game in this fixture is high for a Championship derby, and seven of the last 10 meetings have produced both teams scoring, with the same number going over 2.5 goals. The last meeting, in March 2026, was a tighter affair, Derby winning 1-0 at Pride Park.

That H2H pattern of goals at both ends lines up neatly with the current form of both sides. Derby's leaky defence and Birmingham's habit of scoring in nearly every game point towards another game where both nets are troubled, even if the overall goal tally has cooled slightly from the historical average in recent renewals.

The clearest gap in the data is defensive solidity. Derby are conceding 1.83 goals a game in their last six compared with Birmingham's 1.33, and Birmingham's average of 6.5 corners won per game against Derby's 5.83 suggests a side generating more sustained pressure. Birmingham's average possession of 49.5% against Derby's 47.8% is marginal, but their shots on target average of 3.67 to Derby's 3.17 tips the balance further towards the visitors having the tools to trouble a shaky home defence.

Kick-off is at 12:30 BST on Saturday, 12 September. The match is shown on Sky Sports where selected, with coverage also available via the Sky Sports+ stream. Fans without access should follow highlights or check our live coverage on the day.

The clearest angle here is goals at both ends: Birmingham rarely go blank and Derby rarely keep anyone out. The bet builder leans into that with a result pick, a goals line and a live goalscorer threat, while the outright market favours the away side given the form gap between the two.