Belgium v Iran prediction, lineups & tips: Group G decider at SoFi Stadium

Group G was supposed to be Belgium's to control. After Matchday 1 of the FIFA World Cup 2026, it still might be, but not by the margin that Rudi Garcia's side would have wanted. All four teams sit on one point heading into Sunday's fixture at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, meaning a Belgium win here would put them in the driving seat for qualification from one of the tournament's most evenly contested groups. Defeat, or another draw, would leave the Red Devils in real trouble with New Zealand to come.

Belgium drew 1-1 with Egypt on 15 June in Seattle, a performance that flattered to deceive. They fell behind to a stunning Emam Ashour strike and were largely pedestrian until Romelu Lukaku came off the bench and immediately forced Mohamed Hany into a costly own goal. Garcia has questions to answer in the final third: the Red Devils averaged just 3 shots on target against Egypt and created an xG of 1.35. Lukaku, Belgium's all-time top scorer, has now gone seven World Cup games without a goal. His fitness, after a disrupted season at Napoli, remains the key selection call, and Garcia must decide whether to start him or again deploy Charles De Ketelaere as a false nine.

Belgium still carry the weight of considerable talent. Kevin De Bruyne, 34, remains the creative heartbeat; Thibaut Courtois is among the world's best goalkeepers; and the squad topped UEFA qualifying Group C with 18 points from 24, scoring 29 and conceding just 7. They are ranked ninth in the world by FIFA. The class is there. Sunday is about whether Garcia can organise it into something coherent.

Iran's campaign has unfolded against a backdrop of extraordinary political turbulence. Their participation in this tournament was in doubt for months following the US-Israeli military conflict, and the team made the trip to California under an agreement brokered with FIFA. After their 2-2 draw with New Zealand, during which they twice came from behind, with Ramin Rezaeian and Mohammad Mohebi scoring, coach Amir Ghalenoei was told his squad had to leave Los Angeles and return to their training base in Tijuana immediately after the final whistle.

Iran captain Mehdi Taremi said the team endured five hours of travel and security checks for what is normally a 140-mile trip. The cumulative fatigue is a genuine factor. Iran also face the tournament having been denied several key staff members, including the president of their football federation, who were refused US visas. They have never progressed beyond the group stage in six previous World Cup appearances, and Belgium represent by far their sternest test in Group G. On xG in their opening game, Iran actually led the run of play late, they averaged 1.5 xG for and 1.24 against, but the quality of opponent now rises sharply.

Ghalenoei told reporters after the New Zealand draw: "We spent so much time in the air commuting. They didn't even give us time to recover after the game today. I think perhaps our team is the most oppressed team in the whole World Cup."

Taremi added: "I think FIFA should help us more than this. Let's see what happens in the future."

There is no doubting the spirit Ghalenoei has instilled, his side showed real character to fight back twice against New Zealand. But coming from 1-0 down against Belgium, should it come to that, is a different proposition entirely.

Belgium v Iran kicks off at 20:00 BST on Sunday 21 June at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. The match is live on ITV1 in the UK, with a free stream available via ITVX on smart TVs, mobile devices and web browsers.