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Bayern München v Arsenal: Preview, predicted line-ups & Champions League tips

Bayern München host Arsenal at the Allianz Arena in league stage matchday three. The numbers point to a tight, goal-bearing game between two sides with different problems.

Mike Ifftner
Published
Tue 20 Oct, 22:30
Updated
Wed 21 Oct, 21:53

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This preview was written before kick-off and has not been changed. The result, tables and line-ups on this page are as they stand now.

Round hook

Bayern München v Arsenal is a matchday-three fixture in the Champions League league stage, and it brings together two sides placed close together in the table. Arsenal are eighth on 6 points from two games with a goal difference of +4, according to the supplied standings. Bayern are 12th on 4 points from two matches, with a goal difference of +5. The top eight go straight through to the last 16, so a win for Arsenal would strengthen their hold on that bracket, while Bayern need points to close the gap on the leading group. Arsenal also won the last meeting 3-1 at the Emirates Stadium in November 2025, which adds some context to the return fixture.

BET FOOTBALL
Bayern MünchenBayern München
2–2
Full time
ArsenalArsenal
Wed 21 Oct, 20:00•Allianz Arena

Path to this round

Bayern opened with a 5-0 home win over Bodo/Glimt on 10 September, the biggest margin in the supplied data. They then drew 3-3 away at Viking on 13 October. That gives them 8 goals scored and 3 conceded in two games, and the recent-form aggregate shows an average expected goals figure of 3.06 for and 0.43 against.

Arsenal won 1-0 away at Napoli on 9 September and beat Lille 3-0 at home on 13 October. They have conceded no goals and kept two clean sheets, with an expected goals against average of 0.26 per game. However, all four of their goals have come between the 61st and 75th minutes, so their scoring has been concentrated in one phase.

Rotation context

Both sides have a league stage of eight games to manage, so there is little incentive to rest players. Bayern sit outside the top eight and Arsenal are inside it by only a couple of points, which points to both fielding strong XIs. The enforced changes are likely to matter more than any planned rotation. Bayern are without several midfielders, while Arsenal are missing a first-choice centre-back, so the selections will probably be shaped by availability rather than squad management.

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Bayern MünchenBayern München
WBayern München 6-1 RB LeipzigBundesliga · 17/10/2026DViking 3-3 Bayern MünchenChampions League · 13/10/2026DFC Augsburg 2-2 Bayern MünchenBundesliga · 10/10/2026WBayern München 7-0 Union BerlinBundesliga · 18/09/2026WSV Elversberg 1-2 Bayern MünchenBundesliga · 13/09/2026WBayern München 5-0 Bodo/GlimtChampions League · 10/09/2026W4 D2 L0
ArsenalArsenal
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Champions League
Last 5 meetings · most recent first
  1. 26 Nov 25Arsenal3–1Bayern MünchenArsenal
  2. 17 Apr 24Bayern München1–0ArsenalBayern München
  3. 9 Apr 24Arsenal2–2Bayern MünchenDraw
  4. 18 Jul 19Arsenal2–1Bayern MünchenArsenal
  5. 19 Jul 17Bayern München1–1ArsenalDraw
Bayern München wins
1
Draws
2
Arsenal wins
2
Goals · Bayern München / Arsenal
6 / 8

Line-ups

Bayern MünchenBayern München4-2-3-1
  • 1GM. Neuer
  • 27DK. Laimer
  • 2DD. Upamecano
  • 3DKim Min-Jae
  • 44DJ. Stanišić
  • 45MA. Pavlović
  • 8MT. Bischof
  • 7MS. Gnabry
  • 34MI. Saibari
  • 19MA. Davies
  • 9FH. Kane
Manager · V. Kompany
ArsenalArsenal4-3-3
  • 1GDavid Raya
  • 12DJ. Timber
  • 15DE. Konsa
  • 6DGabriel Magalhães
  • 33DR. Calafiori
  • 8MM. Ødegaard
  • 41MD. Rice
  • 39MBruno Guimarães
  • 7FB. Saka
  • 29FK. Havertz
  • 20FN. Madueke
Manager · Mikel Arteta

Where to watch

Kick-off is at 20:00 BST on Wednesday 21 October 2026 at the Allianz Arena. A UK broadcaster has not been confirmed for this fixture, and the page will be updated closer to kick-off. This is a single league-stage match rather than a two-legged tie. If level after 90 minutes, the game ends as a draw, because the league stage has no extra time or penalties.

Key stats and head to head

  • The last meeting was a 3-1 Arsenal win at the Emirates Stadium in the Champions League on 26 November 2025, per the supplied H2H data.
  • The last ten meetings between the clubs averaged 3.6 goals, with both teams scoring in 80% of them and over 2.5 goals in 60%.
  • Bayern average 65.5% possession, 25 shots and 10.5 corners per game across their two Champions League matches this season, per the recent-form data.
  • Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in both of their games and conceded no goals, but they average just 6.5 corners for per game.
Our headline tip✗ Miss

Match Result: Bayern München to win

Bayern's 3.06 average expected goals per game and 25 shots per game point to a side that creates chances at a high rate, and the home price of 5/4 from bet365 reflects that. Arsenal have conceded nothing so far, though their expected goals against figure of 0.26 comes from only two games and one of those was at home against Lille. The data leans towards Bayern winning narrowly, with Arsenal capable of scoring from set pieces and transitions given the 3-1 win last season. The statistical risk is that Bayern's own defence has already conceded three in a single away game

Our predicted scoreBayern München 2–1 ArsenalFinal score 2–2✗ Score missed
✗ Headline tip missed
TIP 01 · Correct score✗ Miss

Correct score 2-1

Bayern's 2-1 scoreline is priced at 15/2, and it fits the expected shape of a home side scoring twice against a team that has yet to concede. Arsenal's 61st to 75th minute scoring pattern suggests a second-half goal is likely. The risk is that the head-to-head average of 3.6 goals points to a higher-scoring game.

TIP 02 · Over 2.5 goals✓ Hit

Over 2.5 goals

Bayern have gone over 2.5 goals in both of their matches this season, and 6 of the last 10 meetings with Arsenal have done the same. The price is 8/15. The risk is Arsenal's own profile, as neither of their two games has gone over 2.5 and they have conceded no goals.

TIP 03 · Both teams to score✓ Hit

Both teams to score

Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings between the clubs, per the supplied H2H summary, and Bayern conceded three in their last away game. The price is 1/2. Arsenal's two clean sheets this season are the main argument against.

TIP 04 · Anytime goalscorer✓ Hit

H. Kane to score

Kane leads the line in a 4-2-3-1 that has produced 25 shots per game, and Bayern's 8 goals in two games give plenty of chances to share around. The risk is that Arsenal's compact defence has allowed an expected goals against of only 0.26 per game.

TIP 05 · Double chance✓ Hit

Bayern München or the draw

Bayern average 10.5 corners for and 65.5% possession, against Arsenal's 6.5 corners and 58% possession, so corners are likely to favour the hosts, with a line in the region of 9.5 to 10.5 the one to watch. The home-or-draw price is 1/3 and covers the scenario in which Arsenal hold out for a point. The risk is that Arsenal won the corresponding fixture last season.

Build the Bayern München v Arsenal bet

BetFootball Builder · 3 Legs✓ Hit
Bayern München or the draw
✓ Hit
Double chance
-

This leg gives cover against the draw outcome that Arsenal's defence makes plausible. It also pairs well with an over-2.5 leg, since Bayern can win or draw in a high-scoring game.

Over 2.5 goals
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 goals
-

Bayern have scored 8 goals in two matches and the last ten meetings averaged 3.6 goals. This leg relies on Bayern's attack rather than on Arsenal scoring, which keeps it separate from the result leg.

H. Kane to score
✓ Hit
Anytime goalscorer
-

Kane is the focal point of the likely attack and benefits from Bayern's volume of shots. It complements the other two legs because a goal for him supports both the over line and a home result.