Bayer Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart: Preview, predicted line-ups & team news

Bayer Leverkusen walk back into the BayArena this afternoon after a 3-0 defeat at Hoffenheim, their heaviest loss of the season. Their home record is the antidote. They have won all three league games at home, beating Union Berlin 4-0, RB Leipzig 2-0 and SC Freiburg 2-1.

Stuttgart arrive in worse shape. They sit 15th, they have lost twice in a row, and the second of those defeats was a 3-2 home loss to Borussia Mönchengladbach, a side that had only one win from its first six games. To cap it all, six players are on their injury list.

Leverkusen are fourth on 13 points from seven games, level with Freiburg and Elversberg. Their last seven in all competitions read four wins, one draw and two defeats, and they average 2.29 goals a game with 57.7% possession and 17.3 shots.

The weakness is away from home. They have conceded 11 goals in four league games on the road, an average of 2.8, against just 1 in three at the BayArena. They also lost 3-2 at Elversberg on the opening weekend. Their 4-3 win at Mainz on 10 October showed they can outscore anyone, but it showed the same flaw at the back.

Stuttgart have 6 points from seven league games, one more than the 16th-placed Schalke on goal difference. They have won twice in their last seven in all competitions, 2-0 at Paderborn on 10 October and 4-1 at home to Köln on 4 September. They also lost 5-1 at Bayern on the opening weekend.

The numbers behind the results are poor. Stuttgart have conceded 13 goals in seven games, an expected-goals-against figure of 2.46 per game, and they were beaten 1-0 at Hamburg on 17 October without a shot on target to show for it. They average 1.43 goals a game and have failed to score in two of seven.

Leverkusen's last seven in all competitions read four wins, one draw and two defeats, with 16 goals scored and 12 conceded. Stuttgart's read two wins and five defeats, with 10 scored and 13 conceded. Leverkusen are clearly in the better shape, even after the Hoffenheim result. The caveat is that Stuttgart's expected goals for (1.57 per game) is higher than Leverkusen's (1.30), so their results have been harsher than their chances created. Leverkusen's own expected goals against of 1.92 suggests they have been getting away with some loose defending.

Leverkusen are fourth on 13 points from seven games, four points behind Bayern and Dortmund on 17 and level with third-placed Freiburg, who have the better goal difference (+7 against +4). A win would lift them to within a point of the leaders' pace and keep them in the Champions League places.

Stuttgart are 15th on 6 points from seven games, seven points behind Leverkusen. Their goal difference of -3 is level with 16th-placed Schalke, who are on the same points. A defeat would leave them in a relegation scrap before the autumn is out, and a win would lift them into the pack on 8 points.

The last 10 meetings produced five draws, an average of 3.5 goals per game, both teams scoring in 80% of them and over 2.5 goals in 60%. The most recent was Stuttgart's 3-1 win at the MHPArena on 9 May 2026. Before that, Stuttgart won 4-1 at the BayArena on 10 January 2026, with a 4-0 half-time lead.

The pattern points to goals at both ends. Leverkusen's last home meeting with Stuttgart was a heavy defeat, but that was a different team and manager situation, and Stuttgart's defence has since leaked at a worse rate. BTTS and goals are the safer angles here than any suggestion of a repeat Stuttgart win. The 2-1 and 3-1 correct scores to Leverkusen sit well with this H2H and with their home form.

The biggest gap is in the defensive set-up. Leverkusen have kept two clean sheets from seven games and Stuttgart one, but Stuttgart concede 5.86 corners a game against Leverkusen's 3.57, which suggests Leverkusen will spend long periods camped in the Stuttgart half.

The second gap is in goals. Leverkusen average 2.29 per game to Stuttgart's 1.43, and 6 of Leverkusen's 7 games have gone over 2.5 goals, against 4 of 7 for Stuttgart. Leverkusen also average 5.14 shots on target to Stuttgart's 5.71, so Stuttgart will get chances. Whether they take them has been the problem.

The match kicks off at 14:30 GMT on Saturday 31 October at the BayArena. A UK broadcaster has not been confirmed for this fixture, and this page will be updated closer to kick-off. Sky Sports shows only one Saturday 17:30 Bundesliga game a week, so this match is not expected to be on live UK TV.

The strongest angle is Leverkusen's home record against Stuttgart's away record: eight goals scored and one conceded at the BayArena against eight conceded in four on the road for Stuttgart. The goals markets are backed by an H2H BTTS rate of 80%, and Schick is the best scoring option on a depleted Leverkusen forward line.