Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg: Preview, predicted line-ups & Bundesliga tips

Freiburg arrive in Leverkusen as the Bundesliga's only unbeaten side with a perfect defensive record to protect, or near enough. They have won four and drawn one of their five league games, scored 14 and conceded four, and sit top of the table on goal difference from Borussia Dortmund. Leverkusen sit fourth on 10 points after a 4-3 win at Mainz last weekend, a game that showed both their attacking output and their fragility away from home. The visitors' record in this fixture is more mixed than their form suggests: the last meeting finished 3-3 at the Europa-Park-Stadion in March. A 14:30 BST kick-off on Sunday sets the league's best attack-versus-defence question against a home side that has not conceded at the BayArena all season.

Leverkusen's season has split cleanly in two. At home they have won both games, scoring six and conceding none, including a 4-0 win over Union Berlin and a 2-0 win over RB Leipzig on 20 September. Away, the numbers are far looser: one win, one draw and one defeat, with eight goals scored and eight conceded in three games. The season data shows they have let in an average of 2.7 goals per away game.

The underlying numbers are healthier than the results alone. Over their last five league games, Leverkusen average 2.32 expected goals for and 1.32 against, with 21.2 shots per game, 6.4 of them on target, and 59.6% possession. They also win 8.0 corners per game against 3.4 conceded, which suggests sustained pressure. However, they have scored three or more goals in only two of their five games, and the 3-2 defeat at Elversberg on 29 August remains their only loss.

Freiburg lead the table on 13 points from five games, level with Dortmund, and the form data shows four wins and a draw. Their home record is the main driver: 11 goals scored in three games, an average of 3.7, including a 5-0 win over Borussia Mönchengladbach on 12 September. Away from home they have scored only three goals in two games, an average of 1.5.

The defence is what separates them. Freiburg have conceded 0.8 goals per game on the season and recorded two clean sheets, and their recent-form data puts expected goals against at 0.80 per game. They also come off a 2-1 home win over Schalke 04 on 11 October. The BayArena is a harder test than most, as Leverkusen's 59.6% average possession suggests the visitors will spend long periods without the ball.

Freiburg's league form reads W4 D1 L0 from five games, with their only dropped points coming in a 2-2 draw at Eintracht Frankfurt on 19 September. Leverkusen's reads W3 D1 L1, with the defeat at Elversberg on the opening weekend and a 2-2 draw at Augsburg on 12 September. On the surface that favours the visitors. However, Freiburg's three goals in two away games sit against Leverkusen's 3.0 goals per home game, and the visitors' defensive figures have come mostly against sides that have not troubled them for long. The form data suggests Freiburg are in better shape, but Leverkusen's home numbers make this a closer call than the table implies.

Freiburg are first on 13 points from five games, with a goal difference of +10, level on points with second-placed Dortmund. Leverkusen are fourth on 10 points from the same number of games, with a goal difference of +6, three points behind the leaders and one point behind Bayern München in third. Both sit in Champions League league-stage places on the current table.

A Leverkusen win would cut the gap to the top to within a point, and could take them above Bayern if results elsewhere allow. A Freiburg win would extend their lead to six points over the hosts and keep them at the summit. It is early in the season, but with the top five separated by only four points, one result can change the picture.

The supplied head-to-head data covers 10 meetings, with five home-side wins, two away wins and three draws. Those games have averaged 3.9 goals, with both teams scoring in nine of them (90%) and more than 2.5 goals in eight (80%). The last meeting finished 3-3 at the Europa-Park-Stadion on 7 March 2026, a game that was 2-2 at half-time. Before that, Leverkusen won 2-0 at the BayArena on 26 October 2025.

The pattern suggests goals are the most reliable feature of this fixture, and the home side has the edge. The December 2024 meeting finished 5-1 to Leverkusen at the BayArena, and a 2-2 draw followed in Freiburg in May 2025. That points towards the goals and both-teams-to-score markets rather than a clean sheet. The risk is that Freiburg's current defensive record, four conceded in five, breaks a pattern that has held for five years of meetings.

The biggest gap is in territory. Leverkusen average 59.6% possession against Freiburg's 52.8%, and 21.2 shots per game against 17.2, with a corner advantage of 8.0 to 5.6. That volume has not translated into a better scoring rate, as both sides average 2.8 goals, which suggests Freiburg are the more efficient finishers.

The second gap is defensive. Freiburg's expected goals against is 0.80 per game, against 1.32 for Leverkusen, and the visitors have conceded 0.8 goals per game to Leverkusen's 1.6. Leverkusen's problems have been concentrated away from home, though, and the BayArena has not yet seen them concede this season. If the hosts keep that record, Freiburg's efficiency may be tested more than at any point in their unbeaten start.

Kick-off at the BayArena is at 14:30 BST on Sunday 18 October 2026. In the UK the match is shown on Amazon Prime Video where selected, which holds the Bundesliga rights this season. The exact channel for this fixture has not been confirmed, and this page will be updated closer to kick-off if that changes.

The goals markets carry the strongest data. Eight of the last ten meetings produced more than 2.5 goals, nine saw both teams score, and both sides average 2.8 goals per game this season. Leverkusen's home record, six scored and none conceded, is the main counter-argument, so the picks lean towards a home win with the visitors still finding a goal.