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Paraguay v Australia prediction, lineups & tips: Group D decider at FIFA World Cup 2026

Paraguay need a win to guarantee second place in Group D at the FIFA World Cup 2026, while Australia know a draw will do. Miguel Almirón is suspended and the Socceroos make six changes, setting up a fascinating shootout in San Francisco.

Jon Fisher
Published
Thu 25 Jun, 06:32
Updated
Sun 28 Jun, 04:11

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Paraguay's first FIFA World Cup in sixteen years arrives at its most decisive moment on Friday morning in San Francisco. Gustavo Alfaro's side sit third in Group D on three points, knowing only a win will guarantee their passage to the Round of 32 as automatic qualifiers. A draw would send them into the anxious wait of the third-place standings, where their goal difference of minus-two is a significant liability. For Australia, the arithmetic is kinder: Tony Popovic's Socceroos need nothing more than a point to secure second place behind co-hosts the United States.

BET FOOTBALL
ParaguayParaguay
0–0
Full time
AustraliaAustralia
Fri 26 Jun, 03:00

Paraguay's campaign has swung between extremes. A 4-1 hammering at the hands of the USA in their opener suggested the tournament might be over before it began for La Albirroja. But Alfaro's men responded on matchday two with a gutsy 1-0 win over Türkiye, a result made all the more impressive by the fact that Miguel Almirón was sent off just before half-time, leaving them to defend for the entire second period. Alfaro, speaking ahead of this fixture, pointed to the history his side could write. "A win against Australia would be the first time Paraguay has ever won two matches in a World Cup group stage," he said. Australia, meanwhile, beat Türkiye 2-0 on matchday one before losing 2-0 to the USA. They arrive needing only a share of the spoils, though Popovic has been clear there is no intention of sitting back. "We're going into the game tomorrow to win," he told reporters. "I expect they'll be doing the same."

Paraguay's xG of 0.37 per game so far in this tournament is low, and their average possession of just 33.3% reflects a side that defends in numbers and looks to counter. Australia's xG of 0.76 per game is healthier, though their defensive numbers tell a mixed story, a clean sheet against Türkiye followed by two goals conceded against the USA. With head-to-head record the first tiebreaker at this World Cup, and Australia already holding the head-to-head advantage over Paraguay from any hypothetical equal-points scenario, the Socceroos are the side with every incentive to stay compact and deny Paraguay the space to threaten on the break. In five previous meetings, all friendlies, Paraguay have never beaten Australia, losing two and drawing three. The last encounter between the two came in October 2010.

Last 6 · most recent left
ParaguayParaguay
WLW1 D0 L1
AustraliaAustralia
LWW1 D0 L1
World Cup · season 2026 · Group DLive snapshot
#TeamPGDPts
1USAUSA3+46
2AustraliaAustralia304
3ParaguayParaguay3-24
4TürkiyeTürkiye3-23
Last 1 meetings · most recent first
  1. 26 Jun 26Paraguay0–0AustraliaDraw
Home wins
0
Draws
1
Away wins
0
Goals · H / A
0 / 0

Line-ups

ParaguayParaguay5-4-1
  • 12GO. Gill
  • 4DJ. Cáceres
  • 2DG. Velázquez
  • 15DG. Gómez
  • 3DO. Alderete
  • 26DA. Maidana
  • 8MD. Gómez
  • 14MA. Cubas
  • 23MM. Galarza
  • 19MJ. Enciso
  • 21FG. Ávalos
Manager · G. Alfaro
AustraliaAustralia3-4-3
  • 18GP. Beach
  • 3DA. Circati
  • 19DH. Souttar
  • 25DL. Herrington
  • 16MA. Behich
  • 13MA. O'Neill
  • 22MJ. Irvine
  • 5MJ. Bos
  • 8MC. Metcalfe
  • 17FN. Irankunda
  • 20MC. Volpato
Manager · T. Popović

Where to watch Paraguay v Australia: TV and online streams

Paraguay v Australia kicks off at 03:00 BST on Friday, 26 June 2026. The match is broadcast live in the UK on BBC One and BBC iPlayer. UK viewers can stream for free via the BBC iPlayer app or at bbc.co.uk/iplayer.

Stats for Paraguay v Australia

  • In five previous meetings (all friendlies), Paraguay have never beaten Australia, two losses and three draws, with the most recent fixture ending 1-0 to Australia in October 2010.
  • Paraguay average just 0.37 xG per game at this World Cup, and hold an average possession of 33.3% across their three group matches, the lowest in Group D.
  • Australia have kept one clean sheet and conceded 0 goals at home in this World Cup season (2-0 win v Türkiye), though they shipped two away against the USA.
  • Over 2.5 goals has not landed in either side's World Cup fixtures so far: both Paraguay and Australia have seen their matches stay under 2.5 goals in every game bar Paraguay's 4-1 loss to the USA.
Headline prediction · our pick
✓ HitConfidence · medium

match result: draw

Australia need only a draw to finish second, and Popovic has built his side to be hard to beat, a clean sheet in the opener against Türkiye and a competitive second half against the USA even after falling two down. Paraguay are dangerous on the counter, particularly through Enciso, but losing Almirón to suspension removes their most creative outlet and their average of just 0.37 xG per game at this tournament does not inspire confidence in front of goal. With head-to-head the first tiebreaker already settled in Australia's favour should this end level, the Socceroos have every reason to defend well and wait. A low-scoring draw is the most likely outcome.

Best Price5/4bet365 · score 0-0
✓ Prediction landed
TIP 01✓ Hit

Correct Score: 0-0

Both sides average under one goal per game across their World Cup group fixtures when their respective outlier result (Paraguay's 4-1 loss, Australia's 2-0 win over Türkiye) is set aside. Paraguay managed just 0.25 xG in their win over Türkiye and are without Almirón here. Australia generated 0.58 xG against the USA without scoring. The conditions, low xG on both sides, Paraguay needing to attack but lacking firepower, Australia content to sit deep, point firmly to a goalless finish. The 0-0 is available at a price that reflects genuine value.

TIP 02✓ Hit

Over 2.5 Goals: Under

Neither team has managed more than two goals in any single match at this World Cup. Paraguay's goals-for total across three group games stands at just two, and Australia's xG per game of 0.76 is modest for a side that should have the better of the play. The Under 2.5 has landed in four of the five Group D fixtures played so far this tournament. At 3/10, this is short, but the data supports it firmly and it serves as the anchor leg for anyone building a combination.

TIP 03✓ Hit

Both Teams to Score: No

Australia kept a clean sheet in their opening win over Türkiye and have conceded zero goals in their one home fixture at this tournament. Paraguay, despite their counter-attacking intent, produced just one shot in the first half of their win over Türkiye and averaged 1.67 shots on target per game across their three group matches. With Almirón absent, Paraguay's ability to create falls further. Australia scoring while keeping another clean sheet is a plausible outcome, making BTTS No a sound pick at 8/11.

TIP 04✗ Miss

Anytime Goalscorer: Nestory Irankunda

Popovic is starting the teenage Irankunda up front in a bold, attack-minded selection, and the young Australian forward has already shown glimpses of genuine pace and directness in this tournament. Australia will look to exploit space behind Paraguay's high defensive line on the counter, and Irankunda, aggressive in behind, is well placed to be the beneficiary. At around 7/2, he represents the pick with the best risk-reward profile among Australia's attacking options, ahead of a Enciso pick that carries greater uncertainty given Paraguay's overall output.

TIP 05✓ Hit

Double Chance: Away or Draw

Australia have not lost to Paraguay in five meetings and arrive needing only a point. Popovic's side are ranked 27th in the world against Paraguay's 41st, and the Socceroos hold the structural advantage: a draw eliminates all uncertainty. The Draw No Bet on Australia is available but shorter, the Double Chance covering both a Socceroos win and a draw is the safer way to back the same outcome. Paraguay's path to victory requires them to score against a defence that has conceded just two goals all tournament, and do so without their best player.

Build the Paraguay v Australia bet

BetFootball Builder · 3 Legs✓ Hit
Draw
✓ Hit
Match Result
5/4

The result leg anchors the builder. Australia need only a point to go through, and five previous meetings have produced no Paraguay win. The draw suits the Socceroos tactically and historically. Combining it with the other two legs does not create a correlated void risk, as the result is independent of the goals and goalscorer markets.

No
✓ Hit
Both Teams to Score
2/3

This leg is complementary rather than correlated: a 0-0 draw satisfies both the result leg and this one, but the builder still wins if Australia win 1-0 or 2-0. Paraguay's low xG output (0.25 in their win over Türkiye) and the absence of Almirón make it realistic that one or both teams fail to score. BTTS No at 8/11 adds meaningful value to the acca without relying on the exact scoreline.

Under
✓ Hit
Over 1.5 Goals
5/4

This leg tightens the builder without conflicting with the other two. A draw or an Australia win in a tight contest, the two most likely outcomes, will more often than not produce one goal or fewer given the combined xG of both sides across this tournament. Neither team has cleared 1.5 goals in four of their five combined group games. At 5/4, this leg lifts the overall accumulator odds meaningfully and is grounded in the same low-scoring logic that drives the headline pick.

Combined Price
82/11
Stake£10.00
Returns£84.54
Profit+£74.54