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Atletico Madrid v Bayern München: Champions League preview, predicted line-ups & tips

Atletico Madrid host Bayern München at the Metropolitano in matchday four of the Champions League league stage, with both sides short of a few key men and still hunting a top-eight finish.

Published
Mon 2 Nov, 22:23
Updated
Tue 3 Nov, 21:53

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This preview was written before kick-off and has not been changed. The result, tables and line-ups on this page are as they stand now.

What is at stake in Madrid?

Neither of these two can say the league stage is going to plan.

Atletico Madrid sit 16th on four points after three games, while Bayern München are 14th on five, so a win for either side would lift them into the conversation for a top-eight finish and a straight route into the last 16.

The cut-off currently belongs to Barcelona in eighth on six points, which means a single result tonight could swing a lot.

The alternative is the play-offs, a place both clubs currently occupy and neither will fancy as a way of spending February.

It is a meeting of two heavyweights who are both, at this stage, a little short of where they would want to be.

BET FOOTBALL
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
0–2
Full time
Bayern MünchenBayern München
Tue 3 Nov, 20:00•Metropolitano Stadium

How did they get here?

Atletico Madrid have had a mixed start: a 2-1 defeat at Liverpool in September, then a 2-0 home win over Manchester United, then a 1-1 draw at VfB Stuttgart on 20 October.

That adds up to four goals scored and three conceded in three games, and their home record is the one clean sheet and the one win so far.

Bayern München have scored plenty. They thrashed Bodo/Glimt 5-0 at home, drew 3-3 at Viking, then drew 2-2 at home to Arsenal on 21 October.

That is 10 goals in three games, an average of 3.3 a match, but also five conceded, and they have yet to lose.

Harry Kane has four of those goals, two of them penalties, which makes him the obvious name on the Bayern team sheet.

Will there be rotation?

Rotation is hardly the story here, because both sides are being forced into changes whether they like it or not.

With only three league-stage games played and both clubs outside the top eight, there is no sense of anyone resting players for a bigger night.

Expect two strong sides, each picked from whatever the treatment room allows.

Atletico lose a pair of defensive midfielders, one to injury and one to suspension, while Bayern are missing a chunk of their creative firepower.

The visitors do have 19 shots a game in their recent form, so the hosts' reshuffled middle looks like the area to watch.

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Champions League

Line-ups

Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid4-4-2
  • 13GJ. Oblak
  • 18DMarc Pubill
  • 24DRobin Le Normand
  • 17DD. Hancko
  • 22DÁlex Grimaldo
  • 20MG. Simeone
  • 14MMarcos Llorente
  • 8MPablo Barrios
  • 10MÁlex Baena
  • 19FJ. Álvarez
  • 9FA. Sørloth
Manager · D. Simeone
Bayern MünchenBayern München4-2-3-1
  • 1GM. Neuer
  • 27DK. Laimer
  • 2DD. Upamecano
  • 4DJ. Tah
  • 44DJ. Stanišić
  • 6MJ. Kimmich
  • 8MT. Bischof
  • 42ML. Karl
  • 17MM. Olise
  • 19MA. Davies
  • 9FH. Kane
Manager · V. Kompany

Where to watch

Kick-off is at 8pm on Tuesday 3 November, which is UK time now the clocks have gone back.

The UK broadcaster for this game is not confirmed yet, and this page will be updated closer to kick-off.

It is a league-stage game, so there is no extra time. If the match is level after 90 minutes, it finishes as a draw.

Cup stats

  • Last meeting: a 1-1 draw at the Metropolitano in the Champions League in December 2020.
  • Bayern won three of the last five meetings, with Atletico winning one and one drawn.
  • Bayern's biggest league-stage win this season is 5-0 at home, while Atletico's is 2-0 at home.
  • Kane has four Champions League goals this season, two of them penalties.
Our headline tip✗ Miss
Match result

The draw

Bayern have the firepower and Atletico the home comforts, and with both sides missing important players the likeliest outcome is a share of the spoils. Bayern's goals-per-game average is high but they have conceded in every game, and Atletico have scored in each of theirs too. You have to feel there is a goal or two in this for both sides, and a draw looks the fairest reading of a tight one.

Our predicted scoreAtletico Madrid 2–2 Bayern MünchenFinal score 0–2✗ Score missed
✗ Headline tip missed
TIP 01 · Correct score✗ Miss

Correct score 2-2

Bayern have scored in all three games and Atletico have netted in every game as well. With so many absentees on both sides, a goal-filled stalemate looks well within reach. The risk is that a single goal decides it.

TIP 02 · Over 2.5 goals✗ Miss

Over 2.5 goals

Bayern have gone over 2.5 goals in three of their last three, and the bet365 market also leans towards goals. Atletico's own numbers are more modest, with none of their three games going over, so this leans on the visitors. A tight 1-0 would be the downside.

TIP 03 · Both teams to score✗ Miss

Both teams to score

Bayern have conceded in each of their three games and Atletico have scored in all of theirs. Atletico's midfield is short of two holding players, which should give Bayern chances. The risk is Atletico's tendency to keep it tight at home.

TIP 04 · Anytime goalscorer✗ Miss

M. Olise to score

Olise is a creative threat from the right and should get chances if Bayern stretch the game. Atletico are not short of defenders, but they will be missing midfield cover.

TIP 05 · Double chance✓ Hit

Bayern München or the draw

Bayern are unbeaten in three and Atletico have lost one of three. The visitors are short of a few players but still have enough in reserve. Atletico's home form is the main risk.

Build the Atletico Madrid v Bayern München bet

BetFootball Builder · 3 Legs✗ Miss
Bayern München or the draw
✓ Hit
Double chance
-

Bayern are unbeaten this season and remain the more potent side, so this gives some cover if Atletico edge it. It pairs well with a goals leg.

Over 2.5 goals
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 goals
-

Bayern average 3.3 goals a game and win 7.67 corners a game, which points to sustained pressure and chances. That fits with a game that gets stretched.

M. Olise to score
✗ Miss
Anytime goalscorer
-

If the goals do come, Olise is a likely source, given the chances he can create and take from wide.