1. FC Köln v Bayer Leverkusen: Preview, predicted line-ups & tips

Bayer Leverkusen have shipped seven goals in their last two games and now have to go to the RheinEnergieStadion to repair the damage.

They lost 4-2 at home to VfB Stuttgart on 31 October, then went down 3-0 at Hoffenheim six days earlier. That ended a run of three straight wins, and it dropped them to sixth in the Bundesliga.

1. FC Köln are in no position to enjoy that wobble. They are 14th and have drawn their last two, so a visit from a side with a point to prove is a poor draw for a team short on goals.

Köln have scored nine goals in eight league games, an average of 1.1, and only one of those eight has seen them score three or more. They drew 1-1 at Union Berlin on 1 November and 0-0 at home to Schalke a week earlier, which followed a 1-0 defeat at Eintracht Frankfurt on 16 October.

The home record is the best part of their season: two wins and two draws from four at the RheinEnergieStadion, with six scored and four conceded. Away from home it is grim. They have no wins from four, have scored three and let in eight.

In the table the cushion is thin. Köln have nine points, two clear of Union Berlin in the relegation play-off place.

Leverkusen are a different side at the BayArena than they are travelling. They have won three of four at home, scoring ten, but only one of four away, where they have conceded 11 goals, or 2.8 a game.

That matters here. Their attack is clearly the stronger of the two and Patrik Schick has seven league goals, but the defence has been leaking for weeks. Köln's problem is whether they can score enough to exploit it.

Over their last eight league games Köln have two wins, three draws and three defeats, while Leverkusen have four wins, one draw and three defeats. On paper that favours the visitors, but the recent trend does not. Leverkusen have lost their last two and conceded seven, while Köln have drawn their last two and kept only one clean sheet in eight. The underlying numbers back Leverkusen's attack, with an expected goals figure of 1.50 per game against Köln's 1.11. The concern is at the other end: Leverkusen's expected goals against is high, so the recent goals conceded are not bad luck.

Leverkusen are sixth on 13 points from eight games, four ahead of Köln and level with seventh-placed Elversberg. A win keeps them in touch with the top four, which is only three points away (Leipzig on 15 in fourth). A third straight defeat would leave them looking over their shoulder.

Köln are 14th on nine points from eight, with a goal difference of minus three. They are level on points with 15th-placed Paderborn and two ahead of 16th-placed Union Berlin, with Schalke on six in the automatic relegation place. Beating Leverkusen would lift them to the fringes of mid-table. Losing would leave the cushion at two points, and it could vanish by Sunday evening.

Leverkusen have won seven of the last ten meetings across all competitions, Köln two, and one match was drawn (the 2025 DFB Pokal quarter-final, decided in extra time). The games average 2.9 goals, with 70% going over 2.5 and half seeing both sides score. The last meeting was a 2-1 Leverkusen win at the RheinEnergieStadion on 25 April 2026.

The pattern points to goals, but the supplied recent meetings are more mixed than the averages suggest. Four of the last five were won by Leverkusen with the opponent keeping two or three clean sheets between them, and Köln scored in only two of those five. That makes the over the likelier lean, with Leverkusen's goals supplying most of it, rather than a strong BTTS case. A narrow away win is the correct-score lean.

The biggest gap is in attack. Leverkusen average 2.25 goals per game over their last eight and 18.1 shots, while Köln average 1.13 and 15. Köln's shots on target (4.63 a game) are respectable, so the issue is finishing, not creation.

The second gap is possession. Leverkusen hold 58.5% of the ball against Köln's 50.1%, and they win 6.88 corners a game to Köln's 5.88. Against that, Köln concede only 1.0 goals per game at home and 1.0 expected goals against overall, while Leverkusen's 2.16 expected goals against says they will give chances. Köln need to be clinical on a small number of them.

Köln are likely to keep the 4-4-2 they used at Union Berlin, while Leverkusen should line up in the 4-2-3-1 they have used in all eight league games. The only real selection question for Leverkusen is whether the defence is changed after conceding seven in two matches.

1. FC Köln: Schwäbe; Sebulonsen, Schmied, Simpson-Pusey, Sosa; Maina, Okon-Engstler, Krauß, Bergmann Jóhannesson; Bülter, El Mala

Bayer Leverkusen: Flekken; Quansah, Tapsoba, Medina, Gutiérrez; Fernández, García; Vázquez, Maza, Moreira; Schick

1. FC Köln v Bayer Leverkusen kicks off at 14:30 GMT on Sunday 8 November at RheinEnergieStadion. It is live on Amazon Prime Video.

The strongest angle is goals. Leverkusen have gone over that line in seven of their last eight, and the head-to-head record averages 2.9 per game. Köln's own record is far lower, so the lean is on Leverkusen's attack carrying the match, with the Bet Builder built around that.